US embassy cable - 05PARIS3484

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 003484 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FROM USMISSION UNESCO PARIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: TPHY, AORC, OTRA, PBTS, EAID, SENV, WWT, KSCI, UNESCO 
SUBJECT: USUNESCO - INTERNATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC 
COMMISSION READIES INDIAN OCEAN TSUNAMI WARNING SCHEME 
FOR JUNE GENERAL ASSEMBLY 
 
Reftel: State 60390 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  International Oceanographic Commission 
(IOC) Executive Secretary Patricio Bernal on April 29 
outlined the IOC's plans for implementation and funding of 
an Indian Ocean tsunami warning system in an April 29 
meeting with OSTP Officer Gene Whitney and USUNESCO science 
officer.  He reported that work was proceeding on a two- 
track process including rapid upgrade of sea-level tide 
gauges; he highlighted a challenging political context. 
Bernal reported that an early June experts meeting would 
prepare a technical scheme for submission to the IOC 
Assembly on June 22, 2005.  He stressed the importance of 
synergies between the tsunami warning system and other earth 
observation systems in order to ensure long-term viability. 
End Summary. 
 
2.  (SBU) OSTP Officer Gene Whitney's meeting with IOC 
Executive Secretary Bernal focused on the IOC's efforts to 
coordinate an Indian Ocean tsunami warning system. Bernal 
(please protect throughout) described a "strong vector of 
cooperation" that developed after the March 3-8 Paris 
Coordination meeting; the April 14-16 meeting in Mauritius 
was a chance to reach out to the donor community.   The 
earlier "Flash appeal" for Humanitarian assistance generated 
a huge response, but it only involved six countries.  A 
warning system needs to be set up for the entire Indian 
Ocean rim, involving 27 countries, requiring a sustained 
effort, Bernal stressed.  The issue of data sharing remains 
a problem.  He reported that the Indian Minister of Science 
and Technology told UNESCO DG Matsuura that India would be 
willing to exchange data; Bernal commented, "But we've heard 
that before." 
 
Indian Ocean Tsunami Network: A Tricky Political Context. 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
3.  (SBU) Queried on the status of plans for implementation 
and funding of the Indian Ocean tsunami warning system, 
Bernal said that the IOC usually works via national assets 
and the concerted action of member states.  IOC takes care 
of "the glue," i.e., technical assistance, standards, and 
bringing experts together.  In the case of the Indian Ocean, 
coordination via the IOC is important.  But there is a need 
to balance this with a "national" approach in order to 
ensure that international cooperation works.   Reactions of 
the "geo-political groupings" differ, Bernal mused.  The 
Arabian Peninsula, with the exception of Oman, is "sitting 
back."  Africa is "on the receiving end."  Australia is 
looking to the threat posed by the Pacific, but wants to 
play a role in the Indian Ocean to balance or complement 
India.  Indonesia doesn't want Thailand to dominate; 
Thailand and the rest of Southeast Asia are thinking in the 
context of a Southeast Asian system.   India has viewed the 
Pacific tsunami alert as a "U.S. system" and so has a "hands- 
off" instinct.    China sees itself as a "big, regional 
power" and seeks a commensurate role. 
 
 
 
4.  (SBU) Bernal acknowledged that India, Australia, 
Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand constitute a core "club." 
Conceding that they are the best-positioned to manage and 
maintain the system, he remarked, "Let them do it, as long 
as they work with experts in a larger context.  This is the 
pragmatic way forward." 
 
.And a Two-Track Technical Challenge 
------------------------------------ 
 
5.  (SBU) In this political context, two "parallel" tracks 
have emerged.  The first, a fast track, is to bring a 
network of sea-level tide gauges up to speed; Finland has 
provided 14.   Gauges have been upgraded in India, Sri Lanka 
and Mauritius; Thailand is next.  Within the next six 
months, there will be six new gauges in the East Indian 
Ocean, 15 in the West Indian Ocean. 
 
6.  (SBU) The second track entails a cautious approach; this 
includes the finalization of plans for the distribution of 
DART sea buoy pressure sensors, of the type used in the 
Pacific for tsunami detection.  Bernal noted a production 
bottleneck, as well as German interest in providing 
technical solutions.  But he said a key goal was to promote 
"ownership" of the countries of the region.  He questioned 
the real import of the German offer. 
 
7.  (SBU) Bernal predicted that in six months, the IOC will 
have coordinated an "immediate first response" in the way of 
an interim system of upgraded tide gauges for 21 states.  By 
July 2006, a tsunami warning system will be in place in the 
Indian Ocean, including upgraded networks, upgraded 
monitoring of seismic activity, and the deployment of some 
DART buoys.  Bernal expressed the hope that the system would 
eventually include a data processing center in Africa to 
promote preparedness in the entire region. 
 
In Run-Up to IOC Assembly, Tech Team to Finalize Design 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
9.  (SBU) Bernal reported that a technical team of 15 with 
the "best expertise" - including from the Indian Ocean 
region - would participate in a weekend meeting in the first 
week of June to prepare a technical plan to be submitted to 
the IOC Assembly on June 22.   The team would include U.S. 
participant Myriam Baltuck. 
 
10.  (SBU) These experts will address issues including those 
relating to the fact that the Indian Ocean Alert system will 
probably include three or four centers.  This will mean 
distributing data to several geophysical teams, mirroring 
calculations, and creating strong communication and back up; 
this is not necessarily the optimal technical solution, 
rather a concession to the political situation.   The goal 
is to submit a plan addressing these problems (standard 
setting, mirroring, geographical tailoring of messages, 
satellites, bandwidth of communication channels) to the 
Assembly. 
 
11.  (SBU) Over the long term, another challenge to be 
addressed will be ensuring synergies with other earth 
observation systems, Bernal stressed, noting that tide 
gauges are also necessary in the context of GLOSS.  A 
tsunami warning system must be integrated into GOOS:  for 
 
SIPDIS 
example dart buoys should be placed near climate buoys in 
order to "leverage maintenance."  If not, the tsunami system 
- by necessity left unused in periods of calm - will rust, 
Bernal predicted.  Any single purpose system may be doomed 
to failure. 
 
 
Oliver