US embassy cable - 05HARARE710

UNCLAS HARARE 000710 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAGR, EAID, PREL, ECON, ZI, Food Assistance 
SUBJECT: Food Security Update 
 
REF: Harare 425 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (SBU) Food insecurity will likely be widespread in 
Zimbabwe this year.  Concerns about the maize (corn) 
harvest (reftel), the country's staple crop, have been 
borne out and a large deficit is being forecast.  The 
problem could be exacerbated by Zimbabwe's lack of foreign 
exchange, which could complicate efforts to import food. 
We recommend prudent USG planning to be able to respond 
quickly in the event of a crisis and an approach now to the 
GOZ to approve donor feeding of most vulnerable groups. 
End Summary. 
 
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Poor Maize Harvest; Uncertain Outlook 
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2.  (SBU) Given the poor maize harvest this year, all 
observers, including the mission's food monitors, the UN, 
other donors, and privately some Government of Zimbabwe 
(GOZ) officials, expect a deficit of approximately one 
million metric tons (MTs), against a need of 1.5 to 1.8 
MTs.  This will represent a larger deficit than was the 
case in 2002, the last serious food crisis, when donors 
provided over 300,000 MTs of grain. 
 
3. (SBU) It is as yet unclear whether this deficit will 
translate into wide-spread hunger.  Although the estimates 
of the harvest are low - 400,000 to 600,000 MTs, we do not 
yet know the actual number, nor whether farmers are 
withholding part of the harvest from the GOZ's monopoly 
Grain Marketing Board, as claimed by the GOZ.  In addition, 
we do not know how much grain is currently in GOZ stocks, 
and the GOZ is very unlikely to share accurate data. 
Finally, historically donors have consistently 
underestimated the GOZ's capacity to import food and have 
underestimated the population's coping capacity. 
 
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Need for Prudent Planning 
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4. (SBU) That said, the GOZ's foreign exchange levels are 
at the lowest level since independence, therefore so is its 
ability to import food.  In addition, the economy is 
considerably shrunk from 2002-2003 and it is not at all 
clear that the coping mechanism's the population has been 
using will continue to function in this crisis.  Widespread 
food insecurity therefore seems likely. 
 
5. (SBU) For 2005, assuming a 600,000 MTs maize crop, a GOZ 
ability to import up to 600,000 MTs more and insignificant 
carry over stock, against a demand for 1.6 million MTs, we 
estimate a maize deficit of 400,000 MTs, of which 200,000 
MTs is for livestock and seed.  This calulation gives a 
best case critical human food deficit of approximately 
200,000 MTs. 
 
6. (SBU) It is unclear as yet whether the GOZ will issue an 
appeal.  WFP informally told us (protect source) that the 
planning figure for an appeal should one be called is 
200,000 MTs.  Based on our discussions with WFP and C-SAFE, 
we plan to monitor the situation closely and recommend that 
the USG be prepared to respond quickly if a crisis begins 
to develop or the GOZ makes an appeal.  In the interval, 
with Washington approval, we recommend an approach to the 
GOZ to approve vulnerable group feeding for a limited 
number of those most at risk and to expand school feeding 
to encompass take-home rations. 
 
Dell