US embassy cable - 05WELLINGTON400

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000400 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
 
STATE FOR D, EAP/FO, AND EAP/ANZ 
NSC FOR NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR HADLEY AND VICTOR CHA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/16/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, NZ, PMIL 
SUBJECT: MESSAGE FROM AMBASSADOR SWINDELLS: NZ FOREIGN 
SECRETARY PHIL GOFF'S MAY 25-7 VISIT TO WASHINGTON 
 
 
SIPDIS 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Charles J. Swindells, 
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1.  (C/NOFORN) New Zealand's Foreign Minister Phil Goff will 
have three main objectives for his State Department, NSC, 
Congressional, and other meetings next week: to assure 
Washington officials that New Zealand values its relations 
with the United States, to reinforce New Zealand's interest 
in cooperating with us within Asia and beyond, and to 
reiterate New Zealand's interest in a Free Trade Agreement 
with the United States.  Goff's visit provides the perfect 
opportunity for the Administration to tell him with one voice 
that we still regard New Zealand's nuclear ban as a negative 
precedent for the region and a bar to strongest bilateral 
ties. I recommend you cast this message in the context of a 
broader one: we need to move away from the quid pro quo, 
issue-by-issue approach that now characterizes U.S.-New 
Zealand  interactions and instead foster a wide-ranging, 
forward-looking relationship built on shared values and 
common interests.  And we need a signal from the Kiwis that 
they are interested in starting an all-inclusive dialogue on 
how we can reach this goal. 
 
2.  (C/NOFORN) The United States has often reevaluated the 
limits on our ties with New Zealand since the mid-80s, and we 
have loosened restrictions when it has made sense to do so 
(for example, our current look at joint military exercises 
under the Proliferation Security Initiative).  There has been 
no parallel movement on the New Zealand side to take another 
look at the nuclear ban, despite the legislation's continued 
negative affect on bilateral relations, its negative impact 
on the capabilities of the New Zealand Defence Force, and its 
clear contribution to New Zealand's declining influence.  We 
of course recognize and appreciate New Zealand's 
contributions in Afghanistan, the WTO, and elsewhere.  But 
Kiwi officials have clearly defined these efforts to the New 
Zealand public as multilateral initiatives, with only the 
most tentative of nods our way.  We'd like that to change. 
 
3.  (C/NOFORN) Goff is a pragmatic and amiable interlocutor. 
While still firmly devoted to the Labour Party, unlike many 
of his Cabinet colleagues he has moved beyond being a 1960s 
ideologue.  His practical approach to problems has won him no 
favors with the left-leaning Labour Caucus, and may even have 
cost him any chance of Party leadership.  Goff's sister is 
married to an American, and Goff has chosen late May for his 
trip to the United States so that he can participate in his 
American citizen nephew's graduation from West Point (another 
American nephew has been serving with U.S. forces in Iraq). 
He has other American relatives as well.  Goff is aware that 
USG officials believe the New Zealand Government does not 
place enough weight on its relationship with Washington.  I 
myself have stressed to him that unless all bilateral issues 
are on the table for discussion, including the nuclear ban, 
our ties will not be all that they can be.  Embassy staff 
have pointed out repeatedly to MFAT colleagues that the 
absence of GNZ public acknowledgment of the importance of 
United States-New Zealand ties is both noticeable and 
regrettable. 
 
4.  (C/NOFORN) Goff will therefore want to stress to you New 
Zealand's desire to continue to cooperate with us in a 
variety of arenas.  Chief among these is the war on 
terrorism, and Goff will probably highlight in particular New 
Zealand's continued provision of troops in Afghanistan as 
well as through initiatives in Southeast Asia and the South 
Pacific.  As proof, Goff will likely tell you about his 
Government's recent decision to increase military spending by 
USD 3.3 billion over ten years.  Although the investment is 
not as much as we would ultimately like to see, forces had 
been cut so much by previous National and Labour Governments 
that it would be impossible to absorb a larger increase over 
the shorter term.  The Government's decision will at least 
reverse what has been a decade-long decline in military 
capabilities, and will make it possible for New Zealand to 
live up to current peace-keeping and regional military 
assistance commitments in Afghanistan and elsewhere.  It 
should also enable us to engage in the future in a broader 
dialogue about regional security burdensharing, should New 
Zealand be interested. 
 
5.  (C/NOFORN) Goff will want to discuss with you broad 
developments in the Asia Pacific region.  I believe The 
Labour Government feels vulnerable to domestic criticism that 
it is cozying up to dictators in China and elsewhere in Asia. 
 This may be the reason that we have begun to hear from 
Goff's staffers that he and other senior MFAT officials have 
taken on board -- and now share -- our view that New 
Zealand's economic well-being depends directly on the 
regional stability that the U.S. military does so much to 
provide. We have started to see some changes as a result. 
Minister Goff's speech to a recent Leadership Forum of New 
Zealand and Australian officials, academic, and private 
sector representatives was I believe his first acknowledgment 
to a non-U.S. audience that America's role in the Pacific is 
critical to maintaining stability in the region.  The remarks 
were made under Chatham House rules and so unfortunately not 
made public, but they were a positive step.  Goff will want 
to assure you that New Zealand attaches great importance to 
the U.S. strategic presence in Asia, and he will emphasize 
that New Zealand's Free Trade Agreement talks with China 
should not be mistaken for a desire to realign NZ foreign 
policy towards Beijing.  For this reason, you may want to 
suggest to Goff that China/Taiwan could be one subject in a 
broader strategic dialogue with the Kiwis.  North Korea could 
be another. 
6.  (C/NOFORN) As a friend at MFAT has noted, the NZ 
Government is made up of "realists," who do not expect to be 
able to announce any dramatic new bilateral developments 
before this year's general elections, probably in 
mid-September.  Goff will likely tell you that although a 
Labour victory is likely, the Government may be forced to 
form a coalition with the Greens, whose antipathy to the 
United States is obvious.  Indeed, there is no party in New 
Zealand -- not even National -- that considers a review of 
the nuclear ban and closer ties with us a vote-getter.  But I 
believe now is the time for you to lay down the marker with 
Goff that no matter who wins the election, we have an 
opportunity to break from the status quo of the last twenty 
years and create a new partnership based on shared strategic 
interests.  It will take leadership, but the results will 
benefit New Zealand as well as the United States.  After the 
elections, we hope to see a signal from New Zealand officials 
that they are willing to take a meaningful step in this 
direction. 
 
 
 
Swindells