US embassy cable - 05CAIRO3840

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 003840 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC STAFF FOR ABRAMS/POUNDS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/20/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, EG, Ayman Nour 
SUBJECT: EGYPT: AYMAN NOUR, SUPPORTERS FACING HARASSMENT 
AND INTIMIDATION 
 
Classified by A/DCM Michael Corbin for reasons 1.4 (b) and 
(d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) Sustained threats, intimidation, and harassment are 
making it "impossible" for Ayman Nour, the embattled leader 
of the opposition Ghad Party, to conduct his presidential 
campaign, according to his wife (and closest confidante and 
advisor) Gamila Ismail.  Ismail accuses the ruling NDP, with 
the complicity of police and security officials, of 
orchestrating the harassment and hiring thugs to carry it 
out.  She described a widely-reported May 5 incident, in 
which Nour's campaign convoy was stoned, with a number of 
supporters injured, as a new low point.  Ismail asserted 
that, in the face of constant harassment, Nour and advisors 
were moving closer to a decision to withdraw from the race. 
This assertion could reflect more the wishes of Nour's wife 
than a firm predictor of his intentions.  In our own recent 
encounters with him (and his recent encounters with others) 
he has given no indication that he is contemplating 
withdrawal.  We will continue work to corroborate information 
on Nour's intentions and on developments in his campaign, his 
legal case, and his party.  In any case, we deem credible 
charges that incidents of harassment and intimidation against 
Nour's campaign are orchestrated - rather than the 
spontaneous actions of "irate" citizens.  End summary. 
 
2. (C) Poloff met on May 16 with Gamila Ismail (protect 
throughout), Ayman Nour's wife and closest advisor, at her 
request.  Ismail asserted that sustained incidents of 
harassment, intimidation and violence, perpetrated by "thugs" 
in the employ of the GOE, and tolerated by police, were 
taking a serious toll on the morale of Nour, his inner 
circle, and supporters.  Ismail said that the May 5 incident 
in the Nile Delta province of Sharqiya (about 70 kilometers 
northeast of Cairo) had constituted a new low in her 
husband's efforts to campaign for president and had prompted 
them to reflect on their strategy. 
 
3. (C) As described in multiple Egyptian and international 
media accounts, Nour, Ismail, and about 150 Ghad Party 
supporters were on their way to open a new provincial party 
headquarters and stage a rally in support of Nour's run for 
president on the evening of May 5 when they were halted in 
the town of Kafr al-Saqr, near Zagazig, by cars and a crowd 
blocking the road.  A several-hour standoff ensued, as Nour 
and colleagues at first attempted to negotiate passage 
through the gauntlet, but retreated to their vehicles when 
faced with aggressive taunts by the hostile crowd (e.g. "Hey 
Nour, why don't you share some the two million dollars (he is 
alleged, in rumors, to have received by the USG) with us?") 
and forced to dodge flying rocks, stones, and bottles. 
 
4. (C) Nour and party eventually extricated themselves and 
returned to Cairo, but not before, according to Ismail and 
multiple press accounts, one bus carrying Ghad supporters was 
overturned by the mob, and 11 Ghad members had to be 
hospitalized with injuries.  Several press accounts following 
the event quoted an (anonymous) police source characterizing 
the incident as one in which "thousands of people (in the 
village) expelled Nour and his supporters," and another 
security source told a Cairo weekly "we warned him (Nour) not 
to go because the people were angry with him for nominating 
himself, but he refused to listen to us."  Commenting on the 
May 5 incident, Ghad Party official Wael Nowara told the 
press "This shows how the regime tolerates opposition and its 
true intentions toward having real democracy and elections." 
 
5. (C) Ismail opined that Egyptian State Security, and the 
ruling NDP, whom she identifies a co-conspirators 
orchestrating the campaign against her husband, had "gotten 
smart" by forsaking obvious acts of intimidation by the GOE 
in favor of employing thugs (mainly criminals and 
ex-convicts, she believes) to harass Nour and his supporters 
and to incite others to do the same.  These thugs, she 
continued, can be portrayed by police, and the ruling NDP, as 
"common citizens" incensed by reports of Nour's corruption 
and the disrespect he has shown to President Mubarak. 
 
6. (C) The May 5 incident was only the most dramatic, in 
Ismail's view, of what she described as a sustained and 
intense campaign of harassment directed at Nour, other Ghad 
party leaders, and party rank and file.  She cited as another 
example of orchestrated intimidation their experience at the 
April 27 demonstration by the Kifaya protest movement, at 
which she alleged  that thugs humiliated and roughed up 
veteran human rights activist Amir Salim (who also heads up 
Nour's legal defense team) under the watchful eye of senior 
uniformed police officers.  She added that she, her husband, 
and other senior Ghad figures are under constant, overt 
surveillance. 
 
7. (C) Ismail asserted that "NDP thugs" had singled out 
Nour's constituency of Bab al-Shariya', a crowded working 
class Cairo neighborhood, for "special treatment," plastering 
the area with banners taunting Nour as "the agent of the 
foreigners" and "the son of Madeleine," (a reference to a 
popular Cairo rumor that Madeleine Albright (who visited 
Cairo in January) had recruited Nour, with whom she shook 
hands at a dinner party, to become a U.S. puppet).  A U.S. 
journalist visiting Cairo recently joked to poloff that "you 
can tell you are getting near Ayman Nour's constituency when 
you start to see all the banners insulting him."  Ismail also 
claimed that "thugs" she believed to be convicts disrupted on 
May 4 Nour's weekly Wednesday-evening meeting with his 
constituents, shouting him down as an "agent" and a "traitor" 
and intimidating other attendees.  The incident had been so 
demoralizing to Nour, Ismail stated, that he had declined to 
hold a constituents' meeting the following Wednesday. 
 
8. (C) Ismail maintained to poloff that the ongoing 
harassment, intimidation, and violence was leading Nour 
closer to a decision to withdraw from the race.  Such a 
decision was not easy (and still could be changed), she 
stated, but asked rhetorically "How can we campaign if we are 
surrounded by thugs blocking our path and insulting and 
threatening us everywhere we go?"  She added that Nour was 
increasingly stressed not only by recent incidents of 
harassment, but because of his looming trial on criminal 
forgery charges, set to begin June 28.  The trial, she 
predicted, will also be packed with thugs paid to jeer Nour 
and counter any demonstrations of sympathy and support for 
him in and around the court. 
 
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Comment 
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9. (C) We take with a grain of salt Ismail's assertion that 
Nour is on the verge of withdrawing from the race.  While it 
may prove true, Nour showed no sign of being worn down and 
ready to quit when he received visiting Senator Frist on May 
5 (just hours before the Sharqiya incident).  In a more 
recent meeting with a western journalist, Nour again evinced 
defiance and vowed to stay in the race.   It is possible that 
Ismail (as a tired and beleagured wife and mother of two 
teenagers) was more reflecting her hope that Nour would 
withdraw than precisely describing her husband's intentions. 
(We will continue work to corroborate information on Nour's 
intentions, as well as developments in his campaign, his 
legal case, and his party.) 
 
10. (C) Nour should qualify as a presidential candidate under 
the terms of the proposed constitutional amendment (which 
will be put to a public referendum, expected to pass, on May 
25).  It is still possible, however, that revisions to the 
law on political rights, which parliament should complete 
before its current session expires in several weeks, will 
include a clause excluding those indicted on criminal charges 
from presidential candidacy (and perhaps from holding a 
parliamentary seat). 
 
11. (C) We deem credible the accusations of Nour, Ismail, and 
other Ghad Party contacts that thugs hired by the NDP and 
tolerated by police, rather than self-motivated irate 
citizens, are behind incidents of harassment and 
intimidation.  Ordinary Egyptian citizens are very accustomed 
to corrupt politicians (especially in the ruling NDP) and not 
often given to spontaneous, public acts of outrage against 
them.  Even if the forgery charges Nour is facing are true, 
this would register relatively low on the scale of Egyptian 
political corruption.  Moreover, it is noteworthy that 
anti-Nour banners posted in his constituency, and reported 
taunts from thugs in the crowd, focus not on the forgery 
charges but rather on (ludicrous) claims that he is a 
"foreign agent" who has accepted large amounts of money from 
the USG and/or Israel. 
 
12. (C) Harassment and intimidation targetting Nour can only 
be intended to force his withdrawal from the race.  While 
probably an objective of old-school NDP elements intent on 
facilitating Mubarak's reelection, Nour's withdrawal (under 
such circumstances) would make it more difficult for the GOE 
to portray this year's presidential race as a fair one 
featuring viable, critical competition.  End comment. 
 
 
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GRAY