US embassy cable - 05CAIRO3839

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 003839 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/19/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ASEC, EG, IZ, SY, EUN, NATO 
SUBJECT: EGYPT BELIEVES IT CAN MANAGE SYRIAN INVOLVEMENT IN 
A CAIRO PREPARATORY COMMITTEE MEETING 
 
REF: STATE 92750 (NOTAL) 
 
Classified by Charge Gordon Gray for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  During a May 19 meeting with MFA Chief of 
Cabinet Sameh Shukry, the Charge delivered reftel demarche on 
USG objections to Syria's inclusion in the Iraq Preparatory 
Committee (PrepCom) meeting planned for June 1-2 in Cairo. 
Shukry replied that excluding Syria would be diplomatically 
awkward for Egypt, and noted that the GOE believed from 
recent conference calls that invitations would be extended to 
the "Sharm Group, plus."  Egypt could easily manage and 
contain any Syrian obstructionism, he asserted.  On refining 
and defining the invite list, Shukry suggested that the 
entire Neighbors Group be represented by Turkey alone, should 
the larger "Sharm Group" be determined to be unworkable. 
Arguing further for the wider "Sharm Group" invite list, 
Shukri said that President Mubarak would be unlikely to turn 
down a direct appeal for inclusion from any of his regional 
counterparts, including Syrian President Asad.  Shukry looked 
for specific proposals from the U.S. side on which to base 
the exclusion of Syria, but cautioned that Cairo would still 
likely support a wider list, including Syria.  Shukry then 
made a strong appeal to exclude NATO from the PrepCom 
meeting, arguing that its attendance would draw criticism 
from within Egypt and the region.  End summary. 
 
2.  (C) The Charge met May 19 with MFA Chief of Cabinet Sameh 
Shukry to convey our strong objections to including Syria 
among the invitees to the June 1-2 PrepCom meetings to be 
held in Cairo.  Noting that the USG's "last-minute and 
unexpected" opposition to Syrian inclusion in the PrepCom put 
Cairo in an awkward position, Shukry said he wanted to find a 
constructive way to solve the issue.  Egypt had no strong 
desire to include Syria, he said, but felt the Syrians could 
be "managed" and "contained" during the Prepcom meetings.  It 
was also his understanding, he said, that the Syrians were 
anxious to display a cooperative attitude in this process. 
Egypt was approaching the participation issue from a 
practical standpoint, he argued, and was not interested in 
sending Syria a "political message" by pointedly excluding 
them, as he believed Washington wanted to do. 
 
3.  (C) Shukry offered as one plausible alternative having 
Turkey represent the Neighbors Group.  Nonetheless, Shukry 
said if any of the regional heads of state (using Crown 
Prince Abdullah and President Asad as examples) were to call 
President Mubarak directly to request their country's 
participation, Mubarak would be hard-pressed to refuse the 
request.  The GOE wants to protect itself within the Iraq 
Neighbors Group, and not be seen as the party "driving the 
first nail into the coffin" of this useful, productive 
regional grouping.  Noting that Jordan had also not been 
included in the proposed PrepCom list, Shukry questioned why 
certain countries were included while other countries were 
excluded. 
 
4.  (C) Shukry also raised Egypt's discomfort with 
participation by NATO in the PrepCom.  Arguing that Egypt was 
focused on supporting the political process in Iraq, rather 
than the military components, Shukry argued that NATO's 
presence would serve as a source of criticism from local and 
regional sources.  Their participation in Brussels, he added, 
was fine.  The Charge pushed back firmly, noting the expected 
security break-out sessions on the agendas of both the 
PrepCom and the Brussels conference, the relevance of NATO 
participation due to its active training role in Iraq, and 
Baghdad's interest in its inclusion. 
 
5.  (C) Earlier on May 19, poloff delivered reftel demarche 
to MFA Cabinet staff member Alaa Hadidi, arguing strongly 
against the inclusion of Syria in the June 1-2 PrepCom. 
Hadidi expressed frustration with the demarche, citing his 
government's understanding from earlier "small group" 
conference calls that PrepCom participation would be based on 
the "Sharm, plus" formula.  In other words, PrepCom invitees 
would include all those who attended the Sharm Iraq 
Conference in November, plus a handful of additional states 
or organizations.  Now, Hadidi exclaimed, "you want Sharm 
minus, plus."  Hadidi said that apart from the conference 
call and an e-mail from Iraqi "small group" representative 
Hamoud, the Iraqis were not in direct touch with the 
Egyptians about the PrepCom.  Nor had they expressed their 
specific objections to Syrian attendance.  If Iraq had 
concerns with how the PrepCom was shaping up, Hadidi said, it 
would be much better if those concerns were voiced by the 
Iraqis, instead of by the U.S. Embassy. 
 
6.  (U) Baghdad minimize considered. 
 
 
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GRAY