US embassy cable - 05PARIS3423

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 003423 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY; BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; AF/PA; 
EUR/WE /P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA; INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA 
FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR 
AND PASS USTR/PA; USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; 
ROME/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, FR 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - IRAQ - DEMOCRATIZATION AND 
REGIONAL ARAB SPRING FRANCO-AMERICAN RELATIONS 
PARIS - THURSDAY, MAY 19, 2005 
 
 
(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: 
 
1. IRAQ - DEMOCRATIZATION AND REGIONAL ARAB SPRING 
2. FRANCO-AMERICAN RELATIONS 
 
B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: 
 
EUROPE AND MORE EUROPE: PRACTICALLY EVERY FRONT PAGE IS 
DEVOTED TO THE EUROPEAN CONSTITUTION, THE REFERENDUM, AND THE 
IMPACT OF THE VOTE FOR FRANCE'S ECONOMY AND AUTONOMY. MEDIA 
GIVES PROMINENT COVERAGE OF PRIME MINISTER RAFFARIN'S REMARKS 
YESTERDAY IN BORDEAUX IN WHICH HE PREDICTED "LONG MONTHS OF 
ECONOMIC CRISIS" SHOULD THE FRENCH REJECT THE EU CONSTITUTION. 
LE FIGARO NOTES THAT THIS "CATASTROPHIC" POINT OF VIEW IS NOT 
SHARED BY ALL, EVEN IN THE "YES" CAMP.  LE FIGARO'S EDITORIAL 
PONDERS PM RAFFARIN'S PREDICTION AND CONCLUDES A "YES" WOULD 
NOT LOCK IN A NEW ERA OF PROSPERITY BUT A "NO", WHILE NOT 
CHANGING THE MANDATE OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, NOR THE 
BUDGETARY RULES OF THE UNION, WOULD "FURNISH SERIOUS ARGUMENTS 
TO THOSE WHO OPPOSE FUNDAMENTAL REFORMS WHICH FRANCE NEEDS TO 
FIND ANEW ITS ECONOMIC VITALITY."  A NEW POLL PUBLISHED 
YESTERDAY SHOWS A 50-50 DIVIDE IN VOTER INTENTION AMONG SMALL 
BUSINESS OWNERS. 
 
POPULAR WEEKLY MAGAZINE PARIS MATCH CARRIES AN INTERVIEW WITH 
DEFENSE MINISTER ALLIOT-MARIE ESSENTIALLY DEVOTED TO DOMESTIC 
ISSUES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HER SUCCEEDING RAFFARIN AS PRIME 
MINISTER. SHE ALSO COMMENTS ON THE EU DEFENSE PROJECT: "YES WE 
ARE STRIVING TOWARDS A JOINT DEFENSE. BUT NO, FRANCE WILL HAVE 
NOTHING IMPOSED FROM THE OUTSIDE IN MATTERS OF DEFENSE OR 
FOREIGN POLICY. IT CANNOT BE FORCED INTO MAKING DECISIONS THAT 
IT DOES NOT APPROVE. DEFENSE WILL REMAIN A MATTER OF NATIONAL 
SOVEREIGNTY. I HAVE A GOOD RELATIONSHIP WITH DONALD RUMSFELD, 
EVEN IF THIS DOES NOT KEEP US FROM DISAGREEING. (HE IS NOT 
HOSTILE TO THE EU CONSTITUTION) BUT HE SEEMS TO HAVE A CERTAIN 
DEGREE OF MISTRUST TOWARD THE EU DEFENSE PROJECT." 
 
SEVERAL COMMENTARIES ARE DEVOTED TO IRAQ AND CONTINUING 
TERRORIST VIOLENCE. IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION JACQUES 
AMALRIC IS NOT CONVINCED THAT ALL PARTIES IN IRAQ "SHARE THE 
SAME DESIRE FOR PEACE." MORE BROADLY, LE FIGARO CARRIES AN OP- 
ED ON THE ARAB SPRING BY PASCAL BONIFACE WHO ASKS WHETHER THE 
"MUCH DECRIED" WAR IN IRAQ HAS INDEED PRODUCED A DEMOCRATIC 
WIND IN THE MIDDLE EAST. HE CONCLUDES, ON OVERALL BALANCE, IT 
HAS NOT. (SEE PART C) 
TWO OTHER COMMENTARIES COMMENT ON FRANCO-AMERICAN RELATIONS IN 
CONNECTION WITH IRAQ AND THE MIDDLE EAST. BOTH CHOOSE TO 
CASTIGATE FRANCE FOR ITS NARROW THINKING. IN LEFT-OF-CENTER 
WEEKLY LE NOUVEL OBSERVATEUR JACQUES JULLIARD WRITES: "WHILE 
FRANCE IS SINGLE FOCUSED ON THE REFERENDUM, THE WORLD TURNS. 
AND WE ARE UNABLE TO EVEN SEE OUR SUCCESSES, SUCH AS THE 
FRANCO-AMERICAN EFFORT AT THE UN TO RID LEBANON OF SYRIA'S 
OCCUPATION." IN POPULAR RIGHT-OF-CENTER PARIS MATCH ALAIN 
GENESTAR RETURNS TO IRAQ AND THE FRANCO-AMERICAN CONTROVERSY 
AND SUGGESTS THAT THE FRENCH, RATHER THAN WASTING TIME 
DEBATING ABOUT THE WHIT MONDAY HOLIDAY, SHOULD DEBATE ABOUT 
THE OUTCOME OF THE WAR AND FRANCE'S OPPOSITION TO BUSH. (SEE 
PART C) 
 
THE ARREST BY THE U.S. OF LUIS POSADA CARRILES IS REPORTED IN 
A FACTUAL ARTICLE ONLY IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION, WHICH 
CONCLUDES: "THE U.S. DOES NOT SEEM READY TO EXTRADITE THE 
TERRORIST. ACCORDING TO A SPOKESMAN FROM HOMELAND SECURITY, 
`THIS ADMINISTRATION DOES NOT USUALLY HAND OVER INDIVIDUALS TO 
CUBA OR TO OTHER COUNTRIES ACTING IN ITS NAME,' MEANING 
VENEZUELA." 
 
(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: 
 
IRAQ - DEMOCRATIZATION AND REGIONAL ARAB SPRING 
 
"IN IRAQ, A NOT SO SHARED `DESIRE FOR PEACE'" 
JACQUES AMALRIC IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (05/19): "AFTER 
OPTIMISM, DOUBT. IN WASHINGTON, PROMISES OF DEMOCRATIC 
TOMORROWS IN IRAQ HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY CONCERN. THE PRESIDENT 
NO LONGER SPEAKS OF VICTORY AND CAREFULLY AVOIDS TALKING ABOUT 
A CALENDAR FOR U.S. TROOP WITHDRAWAL. PUTTING IRAQ ON A BACK 
BURNER IS NOT ENOUGH TO HIDE THE DIFFICULTIES OF ITS 
RECONSTRUCTION. RECENT REPEATED TERRORIST ATTACKS. SEEM TO 
IMPLY THAT COMPLICITY IS WIDESPREAD AT ALL LEVELS WITHIN THE 
SUNNI COMMUNITY. AND EVEN ABROAD, IN SYRIA, SAUDI ARABIA AND 
JORDAN. THE ENDLESS NEGOTIATIONS THAT PRECEDED THE FORMATION 
OF THE NEW IRAQI GOVERNMENT HAVE AGGRAVATED WASHINGTON'S 
CONCERNS. THE NEW COMMISSION WHOSE TASK IT IS TO DRAFT A NEW 
CONSTITUTION HAS ONLY TWO SUNNI MEMBERS. THIS IS IN PART ONE 
OF THE REASONS WHY SECRETARY OF STATE RICE WENT TO BAGHDAD. 
THE OTHER REASON FOR HER TRIP WAS TO SEND A WARNING TO 
DAMASCUS. THE PROBLEM FOR WASHINGTON IS THAT THE PEOPLE OF 
IRAQ DO NOT ALL SHARE A `DESIRE FOR PEACE.' PARTICULARLY AMONG 
THE SUNNIS. THE ATTACKS WHICH ARE TARGETING NEW IRAQI RECRUITS 
SEEMS TO WANT TO TRIGGER A WAR AMONG THE DIFFERENT COMMUNITIES 
IN ORDER TO CREATE EVEN MORE CHAOS. THIS IS ENOUGH TO 
FRUSTRATE THE U.S. IN ITS SEARCH FOR SUNNI INTERLOCUTORS IN 
ORDER TO PROMOTE RICE'S `STRONG ALTERNATIVE POLICY.'" 
 
"UNIVERSAL PRINCIPLES OR REALPOLITIK" 
PASCAL BONIFACE OF THE INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL AND 
STRATEGIC RELATIONS IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (05/19): "THE 
THEORY THAT THE WAR IN IRAQ HAS HELPED PROMOTE DEMOCRACY IN 
THE REGION NEEDS TO BE SERIOUSLY QUESTIONED. WHILE THE WAR HAS 
HAD SOME POSITIVE EFFECTS, SUCH AS GETTING RID OF SADDAM, 
OVERALL THE BALANCE SHEET REMAINS NEGATIVE. AND THOSE WHO 
THINK THIS CAN BE REDUCED TO THE FRENCH AND THEIR ANTI- 
AMERICAN FEELINGS ARE WRONG. (THERE ARE THOSE WHO SHARE THIS 
ANALYSIS IN THE U.S.) AT BEST AMERICA'S POLICY (IN IRAQ) HAS 
HELPED TO PROMOTE A LITTLE MORE DEMOCRACY BUT MUCH TERRORISM. 
MANY ARAB COUNTRIES DID NOT WAIT FOR THE AMERICANS TO INITIATE 
THEIR DEMOCRATIZATION. AND THE AMERICANS, ALL THE WHILE 
PROMOTING DEMOCRACY, HAVE CONTINUED TO ACCEPT CERTAIN 
AUTHORITARIAN REGIMES SIMPLY BECAUSE THEY APPROVED U.S. 
DIPLOMACY. ALL IN ALL, THE U.S. IMPLEMENTS ITS PRINCIPLES, 
WHICH IT SAYS ARE UNIVERSAL, SELECTIVELY. THE DETERMINING 
FACTOR IS STRATEGIC FAITHFULNESS MORE THAN THE DEMOCRATIC 
LEANINGS OF A REGIME. AND IN THE NAME OF THE WAR AGAINST 
TERROR, THE U.S. CLOSES ITS EYES TO DICTATORIAL REGIMES. IN 
ITS STRATEGY FOR CHANGE, THE U.S. IS LOOKING MORE TO ACQUIRE 
THE DOCILITY OF A NEW GOVERNMENT THAN TO PROMOTE DEMOCRACY FOR 
THE PEOPLE. IN ESSENCE, THE NEO-CONS REMAIN FAITHFUL TO 
REALPOLITIK." 
 
IRAQ AND FRANCO-AMERICAN RELATIONS 
 
"IRAQ AND EUROPE" 
ALAIN GENESTAR IN POPULAR RIGHT-OF-CENTER WEEKLY PARIS MATCH 
(05/19): "WHAT IS EVERYONE TALKING ABOUT IN FRANCE? WHIT 
MONDAY. AND THE REFERENDUM, WITHOUT EVER DEBATING WORLD EVENTS 
WHICH ARE CRUCIAL FOR EUROPE AND FRANCE SUCH AS THE WAR IN 
IRAQ. EVERYONE IS FREE TO THINK THAT A `YES' VOTE WILL GIVE 
EUROPE MORE POWER TO COUNTER AMERICA WHEN IT FINALLY SPEAKS IN 
ONE VOICE. OR THAT THE `NO' VOTE WILL STRENGTHEN FRANCE'S 
VERBAL OPPOSITION TO PRESIDENT BUSH WHILE IT RETAINS THE 
OPTION OF SPEAKING UP ALONE. THE DEBATE IS AN IMPORTANT ONE. 
DEBATING MEANS RECOGNIZING THAT NEITHER THE `YES' NOR THE `NO' 
WILL KEEP U.S. DIPLOMACY FROM BEING WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE WANTS 
IT TO BE. FRANCE SHOWED WITH PANACHE THAT WORDS ALONE CARRY 
LITTLE WEIGHT WHEN CONFRONTING THE WORLD'S GREATEST POWER. 
DURING THE CRISIS THAT OPPOSED CHIRAC TO BUSH, THE FRENCH 
PRESIDENT WAS VERY OUTSPOKEN. HIS POSTURE WAS APPLAUDED AND 
WAS MAGNIFICENT. BUT IT FAILED. WHEN ONE IS AGAINST WAR AND 
THAT WAR FINALLY HAPPENS, WHEN IT IS CLEAR THAT THE OBJECTIVE 
SOUGHT HAS NOT BEEN ACHIEVED, WHAT ELSE CAN BE SAID OTHER THAN 
THAT WE FAILED? EUROPE AS IT STANDS WAS NOT ABLE, IN SPITE OF 
FRANCE'S OUTSPOKENNESS, TO STOP THE WAR IN IRAQ. WILL EUROPE, 
AS IT WILL BE IF THE `YES' VOTE WINS, BE ABLE TO STOP AMERICA 
FROM REPEATING THE SAME MISTAKE..? WE SHOULD HAVE THIS DEBATE, 
RATHER THAN DEBATING WHIT MONDAY." 
 
"STILL, THE WORLD TURNS." 
JACQUES JULLIARD IN LEFT-OF-CENTER WEEKLY LE NOUVEL 
OBSERVATEUR (05/19): "WE ARE SO FORGETFUL OF WHAT IS GOING ON 
IN THE WORLD THAT WE ARE NOT EVEN ABLE TO ACKNOWLEDGE OUR OWN 
SUCCESSES. TOGETHER FRANCE AND THE U.S. WERE INSTRUMENTAL IN 
FREEING LEBANON FROM SYRIAN OCCUPATION. FEW IN FRANCE SALUTED 
WHAT IS ONE OF FRANCE'S MOST DISTINGUISHED DIPLOMATIC 
SUCCESSES, EVEN IF NOTHING COULD HAVE HAPPENED WITHOUT THE 
U.S. MILITARY PRESENCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST. YET THE EVENT 
DESERVES TO BE SALUTED. IT MEANS THAT FRANCO-AMERICAN 
RELATIONS HAVE TURNED THE PAGE OF THE IRAQI MISADVENTURE. THIS 
IS RATHER A GOOD THING." WOLFF