US embassy cable - 05ALMATY1901

UNCLAS  ALMATY 001901 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CACEN JMUDGE, MOMARA 
 
SENSITIVE 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: MOPS, PREL, PGOV, IZ, KZ, POLITICAL 
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: DEF MIN COMMENTS ON IRAQ WITHDRAWAL 
APPEAR NOT TO REFLECT POLICY 
 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: Kazakhstani Defense Minister Gen. 
Mukhtar Altynbayev commented to journalists May 17 
that in his "personal opinion" the country should not 
send a new contingent of sappers to replace the 27 
personnel Kazakhstan currently has in Iraq.  The contingent 
is due to rotate in July 2005.  All indications from 
elsewhere in the GOK are that the Defense Minister's 
statements, as was the case in a similar episode last April, 
by no means represent official policy.  End 
summary. 
 
Altynbayev's Remarks 
-------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) Minister Altynbayev made his comments to 
journalists following an address to senior NCOS in Astana. 
Asked by a reporter about the country's participation in 
Iraq, Altynbayev responded: "(w)e are satisfying 
international obligations in full.our troops have gained 
enough experience.It is time to consider withdrawal of the 
contingent (of peacepkeepers.)"  He went on to say that the 
currently serving troops ought not be replaced in July.  The 
Minister characterized his comments as a "personal opinion" 
and, in response to a follow-up question, said that he 
expected that President Nazarbayev and the Parliament of 
Kazakhstan would "hear about it (his statement) on 
television." 
 
GOK Response Reassuring 
----------------------- 
 
3. (SBU) Following Altynbayev's remarks the Ambassador, DATT 
and Astana Principal Officer pressed GOK contacts for 
clarification.  Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Aleksey 
Volkov told the Ambassador the evening of May 17 that 
Altynbayev's remarks were not reflective of GOK policy and 
that no such policy change had been coordinated among 
ministries.  The Astana Principal Officer followed up May 18 
with the Americas desk officer at MFA, who indicated that he 
had drafted a statement affirming Kazakhstan's continuing 
support of the OIF coalition.  However, MFA might also 
consider an alternative method of clarifying the policy. 
 
4. (SBU) A senior officer in the International Department of 
the Ministry of Defense told DATT that the department had 
been informed of no such policy change and went on to accuse 
"outside influences" (NFI) of propagating the report for 
their own benefit.  This contact assured DATT that the GOK 
plans to carry out the next rotation in July, and is 
preparing to discuss details of the rotation at the May 24- 
25 Planning Conference in Budapest. 
 
5. (SBU) In response to a proposal by a Parliamentary deputy 
to invite the Minister to brief Parliament on his views, the 
speaker of the Mazhilis (lower house of Parliament) 
announced May 18 that the Parliament would not take up the 
question of a possible withdrawal unless President 
Nazarbayev asked them to do so. 
 
Media Coverage 
-------------- 
 
6. (SBU) Altynbayev's remarks have not drawn a great deal of 
immediate local media attention.  His statement was carried 
without elaboration by the pro-government "Khabar" evening 
news program and by the local affiliate of the Russian 
Interfax wire service.  Only three national newspapers, the 
official Kazakhstanskaya Pravda and the private, but pro- 
government, Liter and Express-K, publish on Wednesdays; and 
none of them featured this story prominently. 
Kazakhstanskaya Pravda covered Altynbayev's meeting with the 
senior NCOs, but did not report his Iraq statement.  Liter 
reported the statement, but in a very short article without 
comment. 
Comment 
------- 
 
7. (SBU) At this point we have a number of good reasons to 
believe that Altynbayev's remarks do not/not represent a 
policy shift.  Nor, we believe, are they likely to lead to 
one in the near future.  Our government contacts were 
unanimous in expressing surprise and in denying that a 
decision on withdrawal had been made or even considered.  We 
recall that Altynbayev made similar statements as action in 
Fallujah intensified in April 2004, only to be contradicted 
soon after by senior GOK officials.  Finally, we note that 
President Nazarbayev sent a letter to President Bush dated 
May 12 inviting President Bush to visit and touting 
Kazakhstan's status as "the only Muslim majority country to 
send troops to Iraq."  We expect to receive a public 
statement or alternative indication that the GOK's policy is 
 
 
unchanged in the near future. 
 
Asquino 
 
 
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