US embassy cable - 05OTTAWA1491

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 001491 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/16/2014 
TAGS: CA, PGOV, Conservative Party, Stephen Harper 
SUBJECT: CONSERVATIVE DEFECTION DEALS HEAVY BLOW TO HARPER 
ON EVE OF CONFIDENCE VOTE 
 
Classified By: Classified by POLMINCOUNS Brian Flora, reason 1.4 (b) (d 
) 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY:  Before an audience of stunned journalists, 
PM Martin announced May 17 that Conservative MP Belinda 
Stronach has crossed the floor to join the Liberal Caucus and 
Cabinet as the Minister for Human Resources and Skills 
Development.  She will also hold special responsibility for 
Democratic Renewal and will have a role in implementing any 
recommendations that come out of the Gomery Inquiry. 
Billionaire auto-parts heiress Stronach was International 
Trade Critic in the Official Opposition's Shadow Cabinet and 
key to Conservative efforts to appear more moderate and 
mainstream in liberal Ontario.  Stronach indicated that her 
decision to cross the floor was extremely difficult, and 
stemmed from disagreements with Conservative Leader Harper on 
the timing of the no-confidence vote as well as the direction 
the Conservative Party is taking, in particular the 
Conservative's teaming with the Bloc Quebecois to bring the 
government down.  Stronach's crossover, when added to that of 
confirmed independent Carolyn Parrish, puts the 
two sides even at 152 a piece; Thursday's no confidence vote 
will now be in the hands of the two remaining independents, 
Cadman and Kilgour, both of whom remain uncommitted. END 
SUMMARY 
 
BELINDA STRONACH CROSSES OVER 
----------------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) The Ottawa press core was buzzing with rumors about 
the purpose of the surprise press conference -- anything from 
a cross border initiative to Darfur.  But when the PM entered 
the room with billionaire auto-parts heiress and suburban 
Toronto MP Belinda Stronach in tow, jaws dropped en masse. 
The Prime Minister said that he had met with Ms. Stronach and 
"on critical questions of both policy and politics, we have 
much in common."  The PM mentioned the high stakes they are 
facing in the coming week, and said that Ms. Stronach's 
moderate, centrist policies will fit well with the Liberal 
caucus, where she will serve as the Minister of Human 
Resources and Skills Development.  In addition she will be 
given a position to help implement the recommendations of the 
Gomery inquiry, and will head a committee on democratic 
renewal.  Martin praised her accomplishments in business and 
politics, and repeatedly noted her courage for joining the 
Liberal Party when the likelihood of an election in the near 
future is very high.  The media pool laughed en masse when 
Martin suggested that "the significance of her decision is 
not that it necessarily alters the outcome of Thursday's 
vote" and laughed again when he tried to clarify the comment. 
 He persisted, and told the assembled journalists, 
accurately, that one vote is not enough to guarantee the 
government's success on Thursday. 
 
3. (SBU) A somewhat somber Ms. Stronach then offered that her 
transition began at a function on May 12 where she discussed 
her ideological dilemma with personal friend David Peterson, 
Liberal Premier of Ontario from 1985-1990.  (Note: Stronach 
has been out of step with her Conservative colleagues on 
same-sex marriage, passage of the budget, and the need for a 
party youth wing, among other issues.  It was clear at the 
Conservative Party Convention that she was simply not 
comfortable with the party's western mainstream.  End Note). 
Stronach says she suggested leaving politics altogether, but 
Peterson offered an alternative and arranged a weekend 
meeting between her and the Prime Minister through the PMO's 
Chief of Staff Tim Murphy.  Stronach said that Canada 
requires viable party options and repeatedly noted that the 
Conservative Party is a new and growing party which will 
mature over time.  But she clearly did not believe it is 
there yet, and emphasized several times that she was 
uncomfortable with the direction Conservative leader Harper 
is taking the party.  She also accused Harper of not being 
"truly sensitive to the needs of the country," or 
understanding Canada's complexity and diversity.  Stronach 
additionally stated her apprehension over the possibility of 
a Conservative government that is "beholden to the 
separatists." 
 
4. (SBU) The announcement also had a soap opera twist, as 
Stronach tried to divert questions about her relationship 
with Deputy Conservative Party Leader, Peter MacKay, whom she 
has been dating.  MacKay and Stronach have both been touted 
as possible successors to Stephen Harper should he falter. 
Stronach coolly deflected questions about discussions between 
herself and MacKay as "personal." 
 
HARPER FIGHTS BACK 
------------------ 
 
5. (SBU) Stephen Harper delayed a trip to Quebec to hold a 
press conference of his own immediately following that of the 
PM.  He said simply that the party felt "devastated" and 
"betrayed" by the move, which he only found out about minutes 
before the announcement.  He countered Ms. Stronach's attacks 
on his leadership by saying that there were no "grand 
principles" at work, "just ambition."  He also said he saw 
the move coming since it was becoming clear to Ms. Stronach 
that she would not be taking over the reins of the Party any 
time soon.  Harper said he believes that when Ms. Stronach 
saw her leadership ambitions stymied, she simply jumped ship 
in an opportunistic move. 
 
LIBERALS EVEN THE SCORE 
----------------------- 
 
6. (SBU) Stronach's defection now puts the two sides exactly 
even, 152-152 when counting independent Carolyn Parrish with 
the Liberals/NDP but not counting Speaker Milliken.  The 
confidence motion on Thursday will thus be in the hands of 
the two remaining independents -- Chuck Cadman and David 
Kilgour, both of whom have stated that they would not decide 
until immediately before the vote whether to support the 
government or not.  There was a further rattling of the 
Conservative numbers today when two Newfoundland Conservative 
MPs, Norman Doyle and Loyola Hearn, announced that they are 
under pressure from constituents to vote in favor of the 
budget.  Both won their ridings by extremely low margins in 
the last election.  Their dilemma stems from the tactical 
move by the Liberals not to break out the Atlantic Accord 
from the main budget legislation as the Conservatives wanted. 
 In the end it would be highly unusual for these individuals 
to defect on the budget vote, but the Conservatives took it 
seriously enough to 
address it in question period today.  A Toronto radio station 
also cites unnamed Ottawa sources as saying two other 
"Eastern Canada" Conservatives could also be plotting 
defections to the Liberals. 
 
7. (C) COMMENT: Though the Prime Minister is right when he 
says Stronach's vote does not guarantee the successful 
passage of the budget vote on May 19, nonetheless this is an 
impressive blow to the fortunes of the Conservative Party and 
especially its leader Stephen Harper.  For the second time in 
two years (Progressive Conservative Scott Brison defected to 
the Liberals in December 2003), Prime Minister Martin has 
attracted a high-profile conservative MP whom he placed in a 
position of power in the government on the eve of a key vote. 
 Clear divisions within the Conservative Party are 
highlighted by these defections and the divisions overshadow 
allegations of buying loyalty with a Cabinet seat.  As a 
billionaire CEO and former party leadership candidate whose 
mainstream views were key to promoting the "new 
Conservatives," Stronach garners attention where a backbench 
Conservative clearly would not.  In the process of her 
defection she places a huge spotlight on the problems many 
Canadians have with the Conservative Party and its leader 
Stephen Harper.  In this instance, the spotlight will also 
shine on the Conservative proximity to the Bloc Quebecois and 
what that means for the future of Canada.  Stronach's 
outpouring over her "very, very difficult decision" could 
easily resonate much further with voters than any Liberal 
election attack advertisement. 
 
Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa 
 
DICKSON