US embassy cable - 05CAIRO3785

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 003785 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC STAFF FOR ABRAMS/POUNDS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, EG 
SUBJECT: EGYPT POLITICS: OPPOSITION CALLS FOR BOYCOTT OF 
REFERENDUM ON CONSTITUTION 
 
REF: A. CAIRO 3755 (NOTAL) 
     B. CAIRO 3495 (NOTAL) 
     C. CAIRO 3424 (NOTAL) 
 
Classified by Acting ECPO Counselor Al Magleby for reasons 
1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
1. (C) Leading opposition parties and other critics of the 
Egyptian parliament's proposal to amend Article 76 of the 
constitution (to allow for direct, competitive election of 
the president) are now calling for a boycott of the 
referendum the GOE will stage on May 25 to ratify the 
amendment.  Those advocating a boycott contend that the 
amendment (as drafted) effectively keeps the door to 
competition closed by requiring too many endorsements from 
elected members of the legislature - which is overwhelmingly 
dominated by ruling NDP members.  Ironically, three 
opposition parties who called for the boycott in a May 17 
press conference stated that they were still studying the 
possibility of fielding presidential candidates.  Opponents 
of the proposal have probably calculated that a boycott is 
the best available tactic, since the challenges of mounting a 
successful "no" campaign, especially in the time allotted, 
would be overwhelming.  In the absence of a concerted "no" 
campaign, the amendment's approval through the referendum, 
albeit with a low voter turnout, is probably inevitable.  End 
summary. 
 
------- 
Boycott 
------- 
 
2. (C) A number of critics of parliament's final proposal to 
amend article 76 of the Egyptian constitution to allow for 
direct, competitive presidential elections (ref B) are now 
calling on citizens to boycott the referendum scheduled for 
May 25.  (A constitutional amendment, now passed by the 
requisite 2/3 majority vote in parliament, must still be 
ratified in a public referendum to take effect.)  The boycott 
effort, which first surfaced late last week, received a shot 
in the arm, or at least free publicity, when leaders of the 
Wafd, the Taggumu', and the Nasserist opposition parties 
announced at a May 17 press conference their agreement to 
issue a joint call on Egyptians to boycott the May 25 
referendum.  Explaining their reasoning in calling for the 
boycott, the party leaders noted that the referendum was 
taking place without judicial supervision and complained that 
the referendum did not give voters an opportunity to accept 
the principle of competitive presidential elections but 
reject the modalities of the current proposal. 
 
-------------------- 
Keeping Options Open 
-------------------- 
 
3. (C) Ironically, while calling for a boycott of the 
referendum, the party leaders said they were still 
considering whether they would field presidential candidates. 
 Tagammu's honorary chairman, the octogenarian Khaled 
Mohieldin, is expected by many observers to run (ref C) in 
spite of his stated reservations about the amendment. 
Tagammu' contacts have told us they see his campaign as an 
opportunity to introduce the party and its program to the 
electorate and drum up support for parliamentary candidates, 
while other regime opponents tell us Mohieldin is letting 
himself "be used" and worry that he is doing Mubarak a favor 
by offering himself up as a "viable" (but non-threatening) 
opponent. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
4. (C) In addition to these three opposition parties (each of 
which has token representation in the parliament, but dubious 
electoral viability) both Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood (ref A) 
and the Kifaya protest movement have also called for a 
boycott of the May 25 referendum.  Opponents of the Article 
76 amendment, as proposed, have chosen the obvious course by 
calling for a boycott of the referendum rather than trying to 
mobilize a "no" campaign.  A "no" campaign would pose major 
logistical and organizational challenges, especially in the 
short time left before May 25.  A "no" campaign could also 
confer legitimacy on a "yes" result (which is probably 
inevitable anyway as the ruling NDP is much better positioned 
to "turn out the vote" and even manipulate the results as 
necessary).  By calling for a boycott, opponents can claim 
vindication with a low voter turnout (another likely 
inevitability).  End comment. 
 
Visit Embassy Cairo's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/cairo 
You can also access this site through the 
State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. 
 
GRAY