US embassy cable - 05MANAMA707

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 000707 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/16/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, BA 
SUBJECT: KING'S CONFIDANT DISCUSSES REFORM ISSUES WITH 
AMBASSADOR 
 
Classified By: Ambassador William T. Monroe.  Reason: 1.4 (B)(D) 
 
1. (C) Summary.  Minister of Industry and Commerce Hassan 
Fakhro, in a May 16 conversation with the Ambassador, was 
cautious about the possibility of gestures by the government 
to entice opposition participation in the 2006 elections. 
The government would be reluctant to redistrict because it 
wanted to maintain an even Sunni-Shia balance in seats, he 
stated, and was reluctant to change the appointed Shura 
Council because the Shura acted in effect as the government's 
ruling party in the parliament.  Acknowledging that in his 
view the recent closure of a website was a mistake, he said 
democratic reform was a process, and we should focus on 
trends, not day-to-day developments.  Despite its lack of 
success in passing legislation, the parliament is developing 
real powers, particularly on budget matters and in 
accountability of ministers.  He took issue with a common 
Shia complaint that the government neglected the economic 
well-being of the Shia majority, citing employment figures 
that reached as high as 80 percent Shia in one ministry.  End 
summary. 
 
2. (C) The Ambassador called on Minister of Industry and 
Commerce Hassan Fakhro, a close confidant of the King, May 16 
to probe his thinking on democratic reform issues. 
 
3. (C) The Ambassador noted that issues of democratic reform 
and freedom of expression in the Arab world are high on the 
agenda of the Bush Administration, and that Bahrain has 
earned recognition in Washington for its steps to begin a 
democratic reform process and grant women political rights. 
It is precisely because of Bahrain's positive steps, however, 
that the spotlight will shine on Bahrain as it moves towards 
the 2006 elections and deals with pressures and provocations 
from the opposition.  The U.S., as it looks at Bahrain, hopes 
for successful elections in 2006 and positive movement 
forward on freedom of expression issues.  In our discussions 
with political circles in Bahrain, we are aware that there 
are elements within the opposition (most notably, Al-Wifaq) 
that would like to participate in next year's elections and 
are looking for gestures from the government -- such as a 
redistricting to more accurately reflect the Sunni-Shia 
balance or a commitment to amend the government-appointed 
Shura (upper) house.  The Ambassador asked Fakhro how the 
government saw the run-up to the elections proceeding, and 
whether there might be possibilities for compromise. 
 
4. (C) Fakhro said that we need to look at democratic reform 
in Bahrain as a process, focusing not on the day-to-day 
developments but rather the trends.  Bahrain is feeling its 
way, and the path to democracy will not be perfectly smooth. 
He noted a recent Wall Street Journal article, which cited 
the closing of a Bahrain-based website as a step backward. 
He personally felt that the action taken against the website 
was a mistake.  Although there was concern about the kind of 
language being used, the step taken caused more harm than 
good, Fakhro acknowledged. 
 
5. (C) Fakhro was cautious on possible gestures the 
government could take to entice the opposition to participate 
in the 2006 elections.  Shia oppositionists frequently raise 
the issue of electoral districts, pointing out that some 
Sunni districts have far fewer voters than some Shia 
districts.  Fakhro said that the districting for the 2002 
election was designed purposefully to create a 50-50 balance 
in the lower Council of Representatives (COR).  The results 
did not match the expectation because of the boycott by the 
largest Shia party, but at this stage in Bahrain's developing 
democracy, Fakhro said, there is merit seen in trying to 
maintain a balance in the elected parliament. 
 
6. (C) Another gesture sought by the opposition is a 
commitment to reduce the power or size of the appointed Shura 
Council.  Again, Fakhro was cautious.  He noted that, unlike 
in more developed parliamentary democracies, the government 
does not have its own party to support it in the legislature. 
 It thus has no party that it can rely on to support its 
agenda.  The Shura members, who are appointed by the 
government, play this role (comment: the nine-member 
"Independent" bloc in the COR is considered by many to be 
pro-government).  Asked about efforts by some blocs in the 
COR to legislate changes to the Shura Council (thereby 
meeting a demand of the oppositionists), Fakhro was skeptical 
that they had the votes to pass something in the COR (much 
less get it through the Shura). 
 
7. (C) Asked how he saw the political scene developing in 
Bahrain, Fakhro expressed optimism that the 2006 elections 
will proceed successfully with more participation than in 
2002 and higher caliber parliamentarians.  Longer term, he 
said that the King would like to remove the prime minister 
position from the royal family.  This would help make the 
prime minister and his government more accountable, as a 
non-royal prime minister could more easily be removed for 
performance reasons.  (Comment: Fakhro clearly did not see 
this happening until after current PM Shaikh Khalifa departs 
from the scene.) 
 
8. (C) On the current parliament, Fakhro said it should not 
be judged solely on the number of bills it has passed (or not 
passed).  It is developing real powers, he stated, most 
notably on the budget.  He cited as examples his success in 
getting the parliament to reduce by half the cut in funding 
the government had recommended for his Ministry, and the 
parliament's success in forcing the government to increase 
payments made by government-owned oil company Bapco into the 
government coffers.  He added that the ability of 
parliamentarians to question Ministers is unquestionably 
making the Ministers more accountable, and cited a recent 
infusion of funds into a village affected by an industrial 
chemical release as a direct result of parliamentary pressure. 
 
9. (C) Finally, Fakhro took issue with a common Shia 
complaint that the Sunni leadership in Bahrain has neglected 
the economic well-being of the Shia majority.  He said that 
70 percent of the employees in his Ministry are Shia.  In the 
Ministry of Electricity and Water, one of the largest 
ministerial employers in the government, 80 percent are Shia, 
10 percent are foreign, and 10 percent are Sunni.  In the 
government as a whole, even if the Ministry of Interior and 
Bahrain Defense Force (known to hire less Shia for security 
reasons) are included, Shias comprise 60-65 percent of the 
total employees, he said. 
MONROE