US embassy cable - 05GABORONE667

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GABORONE 000667 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/S HOFSTATTER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/16/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, BC, Political Parties 
SUBJECT: BDP RECONCILIATION ON TRACK - FOR NOW 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOSEPH HUGGINS FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D 
 
1. (C)  SUMMARY:  The Botswana Democratic Party's Women's 
Wing chose a compromise slate of leaders at its May 5-8 
national congress providing the first evidence that Vice 
President Khama's efforts to unite the Party are succeeding. 
This comes just ahead of the Party's national congress in 
July, where Khama's reconciliatory campaign will face its 
greatest test.  Increasingly, BDP members see Khama as 
exercising presidential authority and Mogae as a lame duck. 
Not everyone in the BDP is happy with that, however, 
including some of his erstwhile supporters.  END SUMMARY. 
 
BDP WOMEN'S WING MEETING YIELDS COMPROMISE . . . 
 
2. (U)  At its biannual national congress May 5-8, the BDP 
Women's Wing chose a slate of leaders agreed upon by 
representatives of the Party's two rival factions (now known 
as the Nkate-Merafhe and Kedikilwe-Kwelagobe factions). 
According to MP for Mahalapye West Botlogile Tshireletso, who 
will return for a third tenure as chair of the Wing, the 
women of the BDP recognized that elections are a more 
democratic way of selecting leaders but could have been 
fatally divisive, and therefore felt that party unity was 
paramount at the time. 
 
. . . BY A NARROW MARGIN 
 
3. (C)  Despite the explicit and fervent endorsement of Vice 
President Khama, the compromise outcome of the women's 
congress narrowly succeeded.  Tshireletso informed PolOff on 
May 12 that many delegates had arrived at the event unaware 
of the details of the proposed agreement, a reflection of the 
fact that its opponents would be all too happy to shoot it 
down.  During the congress, several representatives of the 
Nkate-Merafhe faction argued against compromise, believing 
that they would win an open contest.  The followers of 
Kedikilwe-Kwelagobe endorsed a negotiated outcome, knowing 
that it would pave the way for a similar outcome of the 
Party's national congress in July, thereby preserving their 
hold on at least some levers of power. 
 
BDP REUNIFICATION ON TRACK 
 
4. (C)  The result of the Women's Wing congress indicates 
that Vice President Khama's efforts to broker a party-wide 
reconciliation are making progress.  A BDP contact told the 
Ambassador that the faction leaders had agreed that current 
Secretary General and MP from Molepolole South Daniel 
 
SIPDIS 
Kwelagobe will retain his post, as will his Deputy, Minister 
of Education Jacob Nkate.  Tshireletso, who is also the BDP's 
Chief Whip in parliament, cautioned PolOff, however, that 
this outcome is not guaranteed since the members of the 
Nkate-Merafhe faction continue to lobby against it.  Kefentse 
Mzwinila, a leader of the BDP youth and active member of the 
Kedikilwe-Kwelagobe group, told PolOff that his faction has 
been burned before on compromise deals that fell through at 
the last minute.  He said that Kedikilwe-Kwelagobe delegates 
will go to the party congress in July armed with a "plan B" 
list of nominees drawn solely from their number in case the 
Nkate-Merafhe faction attempts a coup. 
 
KHAMA, NOT MOGAE, AT THE HELM 
 
5. (C)  Due in part to his role in trying to unite the Party, 
BDP members appear increasingly to view Khama as the real 
political ruler of Botswana and Mogae as a lame duck. 
Mzwinila told PolOff that Mogae's various public denials that 
factions exist within the Party have reinforced the 
perception within the BDP that Mogae is out of touch with 
reality.  Tshireletso described Mogae as on his way out the 
door.  She believed that Khama had chosen the current cabinet 
and planned to see Khama, not Mogae, suggesting a cabinet 
reshuffle in 2006 to include some Kedikilwe-Kwelagobe 
loyalists to promote party unity. 
 
CONCERNS ABOUT PRESIDENT KHAMA 
 
6. (C)  Not everyone in the BDP is comfortable with the idea 
of President Ian Khama.  Minister of Education Jacob Nkate, 
long considered a close ally of Khama, recently told the 
Ambassador that Botswana would have in Khama a president 
unfit for the job.  Unlike Mogae, who is an economist, Khama 
lacks the grasp of economic and development related issues 
upon which a president must make important decisions, he 
opined.  Nkate feared that Khama would surround himself with 
"idiot" yes-men.  Harkening back to allegations of improper 
purchases by the Botswana Defense Force from a company owned 
by Tshekedi Khama, Ian Khama's brother, when the latter was 
Commander of the military, Nkate worried that corruption in 
high places would rise under Khama as well. 
 
7. (C)  Tshireletso, who belongs to neither faction but tends 
to sympathize more with the Kedikilwe group, echoed some of 
these concerns.  She described some of the new faces in 
cabinet as Khama's "bootlickers."  (Note:  During the Women's 
Wing congress, Khama had basked in the adoration of some 
delegates, including former MP and cabinet minister Tebelelo 
Seretse who publicly proclaimed herself Khama's "bootlicker." 
 End Note.)  Members of the BDP Central Committee from the 
Nkate-Merafhe faction, she said, do not speak in Committee 
meetings until Khama speaks, and then only to agree with him. 
 
DE BEERS FUNDS POLITICAL CONSULTANT 
 
8. (C)  Perhaps reflecting some concern about the 
opposition's growing share of the popular vote, De Beers has 
apparently paid for a professional consultant for the BDP. 
BDP Executive Secretary Batlang Serema informed PolOff that a 
South African political consultant, Lawrence Schlemmer, was 
in Botswana to prepare a document advising BDP on strategies 
to remain in power.  (Note:  Schlemmer last came to Botswana 
in 1997, following the opposition's best electoral 
performance ever in 1994.  His report recommended that then 
President Masire step down, Mogae take over and appoint Khama 
Vice President, all of which was implemented.  End Note.) 
Kefentse Mzwinila informed PolOff that associates of 
Schlemmer interviewed him for several hours as one of the 
major opinion shapers within the BDP.  They quizzed him in 
detail about his perceptions of both Mogae and Khama. 
Mzwinila stated that his interlocutors had informed him that 
Schlemmer had been hired by a company in South Africa with 
considerable interests in Botswana's mining sector (i.e. De 
Beers) to conduct the study.  Tshireletso confirmed to PolOff 
that a friend of the party was paying for the report on its 
behalf. 
 
COMMENT 
 
9. (C)  While it appears the BDP is starting to heal the deep 
internal rifts between its rival factions, concern about the 
prospect of a Khama presidency seems to be growing.  These 
concerns underscore the importance of continued efforts to 
remind Botswana that its reputation as a democracy relatively 
untainted by corruption is its greatest asset.  It also 
demonstrates the need to further strengthen civil society and 
enhance the independence of the legislature, judiciary, and 
autonomous government agencies in the face of a predominant 
executive. 
HUGGINS