US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI2214

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002214 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PREL, TW 
SUBJECT: PFP HARDLINERS RESIST COOPERATION WITH DPP 
 
REF: A. TAIPEI 02166 
 
     B. TAIPEI 01525 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  In the wake of the People First Party's 
(PFP) devastating showing in the May 14 National Assembly 
election, party hardliners tell AIT they intend to challenge 
Chairman James Soong over the PFP's recent alliance with 
President Chen Shui-bian.  Several PFP legislators, including 
Chiu Yi, Lee Ching-hua, Lin Yu-fang, and Sun Ta-Chien, have 
already publicly demanded that the PFP leadership hold an 
open debate over cooperation with the ruling Democratic 
Progressive Party (DPP) and reportedly have threatened to 
resign if he fails to meet their demands.  In preparation for 
their charge at Soong, PFP hardliners appeared to have won 
over several Soong loyalists, including Legislators Daniel 
Hwang (Yi-jiau) and Liu Wen-hsiung.  Other Soong loyalists, 
however, have moved to defend the beleaguered Chairman and 
his alliance with the DPP.  Saying that the malcontents are 
free to leave anytime, Soong has dismissed this challenge of 
his leadership.  Wounded from two successive election 
defeats, however, Soong will be under intense pressure to 
adjust course.  If Soong does break with the DPP, it could 
seriously damage prospects for key legislation, including the 
Special Defense Procurement Budget.  End Summary. 
 
Attack of the Hardliners 
------------------------ 
 
2. (C) "Deep Blue" (pro-unification) hardliners in the People 
First Party (PFP) blame Chairman James Soong's accommodation 
with the DPP for the party's devastating showing in the May 
14 National Assembly (NA) election.  Party hardliners tell 
AIT they intend to challenge Soong over the future direction 
of the party.  Several PFP legislators, including Chiu Yi, 
Lee Ching-hua, Lin Yu-fang, and Sun Ta-Chien, have already 
publicly demanded that the PFP leadership hold an open debate 
on the party's cooperation with the ruling Democratic 
Progressive Party (DPP).  Sun Ta-chien, who has been a vocal 
critic of the February 24 Chen-Soong meeting, noted that 
everything he had told AIT on the eve of the election has 
come to pass (Ref A).  He told AIT that PFP's poor 
performance in the NA election was a clear rejection by the 
PFP voter base of the party's cohabitation with the DPP.  Sun 
acknowledged that, despite his earlier comments to AIT about 
his bitter resentment of the KMT, he now realizes PFP's 
future lies with the KMT.  He also said that Soong will 
convene a meeting with PFP legislators and party officials on 
May 17 at which he and his PFP LY colleagues will try to 
compel Soong to abandon cooperation with the DPP and seek 
closer relations with the KMT.  Soong told the AIT Director 
May 17 that he has persuaded all but a few key "mavericks" to 
accept his continued leadership (Septel). 
 
Boycotting DPP LY Proposals 
--------------------------- 
 
3. (C) Following the NA election, the PFP legislative caucus 
moved to signal publicly the party's future direction.  PFP 
Legislative Convener Chen Chih-pin announced that the PFP 
will boycott negotiations with the DPP on all legislation and 
will oppose the DPP's call for the Legislative Yuan (LY) to 
hold an extraordinary summer session following the end of the 
regular session in late May.  PFP Caucus Whip Lee Yong-ping 
told reporters that the PFP will team up with the KMT caucus 
to implement the "Five Point" communique signed by KMT 
Chairman Lien Chan and PRC President Hu Jintao as well as the 
"Six Point" agreement reached by Soong and Hu.  She also 
claimed that Soong has recently said that the PFP does not 
rule out the possibility of merging with the KMT.  (Note:  At 
the beginning of the February LY session, PFP LY members 
elected Chen Chih-pin, Hsu Yao-chang, and Lee Yong-ping as 
their caucus leaders, over the objection of Soong who 
preferred Lee Hung-chun.  Chen and Hsu are local politicians 
with no concrete ideological position but known for their 
emphasis on consensus-building.  Sun told AIT that he urged 
Lee Yong-ping to stand for election as "our" representative. 
In the next session, Sun said they intend to elect Lin 
Yu-fang.  End Note.) 
 
4. (C) Open criticisms of the direction Soong has been taking 
have fueled media speculation that a number of PFP 
legislators are about to quit the party.  Sun Ta-chien, 
however, told AIT that he intends to stay and that he has 
convinced Chiu Yi, Lee Ching-hua and other reportedly wayward 
PFP members thinking of leaving the party to stay and fight 
the Soong line, using the argument that only by staying can 
they pry Soong away from the DPP and back into the Pan-Blue 
mainstream.  Pointing to the LY caucus leadership election, 
Sun asserted that the anti-DPP hardliners have previously 
challenged Soong and won (Ref B). 
 
Eroding Soong's Inner Circle 
---------------------------- 
 
5. (C) In preparation for their challenge to Soong, PFP 
hardliners appear to have already won over several Soong 
loyalists.  When AIT arrived in PFP Legislator Daniel Hwang 
(Yih-jiau)'s office on May 16, Chen Chih-pin was leaving the 
office.  Hwang told AIT that he and Chen would meet with 
Soong later that day to urge Soong to change his leadership 
style.  Hwang explained that PFP LY members will no longer 
tolerate Soong's autocratic decision making.  Hwang blamed 
fellow legislator and PFP Policy Chief Vincent Chang 
(Hsien-yao) for encouraging Soong's dictatorial approach. 
The camp opposed to any cooperation with the DPP appears to 
have also won over former LY caucus leader Liu Wen-hsiung. 
Kevin Lo, a Liu aide, told AIT that Liu is trying to distance 
himself from Soong.  Lo explained that Soong's continued 
cooperation with the DPP is hurting Liu Wen-hsiung's own 
chances of winning the Keelung Magistrate election in 
December.  Lo added that only a handful of PFP members -- 
Vincent Chang, PFP Deputy Secretary General Ma Chieh-ming, 
and longtime Soong aide Hsia Liung --  now support Soong's 
desire to continue cooperating with the DPP. 
 
6. (C) Other Soong loyalists, however, have moved to defend 
the beleaguered Chairman and his alliance with the DPP.  PFP 
Public Affairs Deputy Director Liao Wen-chang told AIT that 
the lack of effort on the part of the legislators in question 
is the real reason for the PFP's poor NA election 
performance.  He said the party is better off without these 
malcontents who are only trying to attract attention for 
their own political interests.  Other senior PFP officials 
revealed to the media May 16 that Soong has also dismissed 
his critics, saying they are free to leave if they want. 
 
Comment: Soong at a Crossroad 
----------------------------- 
 
7. (C) Five months after the PFP fared poorly in the December 
2004 LY election, Chairman James Soong has finally come to a 
policy crossroad.  Given the PFP's even weaker performance in 
the NA election last weekend, Soong has few options left. 
There appears to be little chance that he can ensure the 
political survival of his personal career or even that of his 
party.  Soong was motivated to seek an accommodation with 
President Chen Shui-bian and the DPP by his fear of the PFP 
being swallowed up by the KMT in the wake of the December LY 
election.  The May 14 NA election, however, signaled that the 
PFP's electoral base prefers Pan-Blue unity over cross-party 
reconciliation.  PFP hopefuls for the December 2005 
magistrate and mayoral elections are clearly placing their 
hopes in union with and nomination by the KMT.  Soong will 
have to decide whether he will acquiesce to the anti-DPP 
hardliners in order to keep his party together but face 
eventual, seemingly unavoidable merger with the KMT, or 
continue his alliance with the DPP with a rump section of the 
PFP.  The ruling DPP, of course, hopes Soong opts for the 
latter.  While this would split the PFP, it could facilitate 
real DPP-PFP cooperation in the LY.  Relations between Soong 
and the DPP, however, are at low ebb following DPP criticism 
of Soong's PRC visit as "failed" and Soong's public 
complaints over Chen's series of pre-election "revelations" 
over Soong's meetings with PRC officials in the U.S. and 
under-the-table promises over the Special Defense Procurement 
Budget. 
PAAL