US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI2212

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002212 
 
SIPDIS 
 
WASHINGTON PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, TW 
SUBJECT: REVERBERATIONS FROM MAY 14 ELECTION:  CONFIDENCE 
AND CONCILIATION 
 
REF: A. TAIPEI 2183 
 
     B. TAIPEI 2076 
 
Classified By:  AIT Director Douglas H. Paal, Reason 1.4 b 
 
1.  (C) A DPP riven by internal bickering one week ago has 
emerged from its May 14 National Assembly election plurality 
more confident -- in some cases, overconfident.  In the 
latter category, Vice President Annette Lu claimed May 14 was 
a decisive victory for Taiwan sovereignty, a rejection of the 
Lien-Soong Mainland China visits and a message to Beijing. 
In the KMT, which placed an embarrassing second (after 
predicting victory), there is quiet and signs of a greater 
willingness to cooperate with the ruling DPP.  Belying the 
caustic words of VP Lu, however, there are indications that 
President Chen and KMT Chairman Lien Chan might be willing to 
talk and cooperate on the National Assembly and on 
cross-Strait issues.  End Summary. 
 
May 14 Election Message:  Taiwan No Meal for a Lion 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
2.  (C) In a meeting May 16 with foreign representatives to 
discuss Taiwan's foreign relations, the "deep-Green" 
(pro-independence) Vice President Annette Lu (Hsiu-lien) 
digressed to boast of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) 
first place finish in the May 14 National Assembly election 
(Ref A).  That election, she told the representatives, showed 
Beijing that the people of Taiwan do not accept the one China 
principle and that Beijing must reconsider its Taiwan policy. 
 May 14 was highly significant, she argued, and represented a 
rejection of the Mainland China visits of Lien Chan and 
People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong (Chu-yu), both 
of whom would abandon Taiwan and make it "a quick meal for a 
lion." 
 
3.  (C) While PFP Chairman James Soong's trip may have 
"seemed" successful, she continued, in reality May 14 was 
Taiwan's "clear answer" to Soong.  Soong returned to Taipei 
on May 12 with his "two sides, one China" formula, Lu noted 
bitterly, but two days later his PFP fell to a dismal fourth 
place, "even below the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU)." 
(Note:  At this point MOFA North American Director Victor 
Chin passed Lu a note, and she dropped her discussion of 
Soong.  Chin later told AIT that his note reminded Lu of a 
cable from TECRO/Washington reporting a meeting between TECRO 
Representative David Lee and NSC Asia Senior Director Michael 
Green regarding James Soong, at which there was agreement on 
the importance of the DPP administration showing flexibility 
toward Soong.  End note.) 
 
KMT, Lien Chan Ready to Talk 
---------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) In a separate meeting, KMT foreign policy advisor and 
former TECRO/Washington Representative Stephen Chen (Hsi-fan) 
told AIT that Lien Chan is ready and willing to meet with 
President Chen to discuss cross-Strait issues.  Chen, who 
accompanied Lien to Mainland China, said Lien fully realizes 
that his cross-Strait initiative will be fruitless without 
President Chen and the Taiwan government.  The only obstacle 
to Chen-Lien talks now, Stephen Chen explained, is President 
Chen's harsh "campaign criticism" of Lien before the 
election, in which he lambasted Lien's Beijing University 
speech for criticizing Taiwan democratic institutions and 
aligning KMT and CCP against Taiwan independence (Ref B). 
The KMT has demanded an apology from Chen as a condition to a 
Chen-Lien meeting.  There are, however, Stephen Chen noted, 
many ways to phrase an apology, pointing to President Chen,s 
oblique apology to former President Lee Teng-hui last week, 
in which Chen praised Lee rather than directly apologizing to 
him. 
 
5.  (C) Stephen Chen told AIT that the impression he derived 
from Lien's meetings in Beijing, was that Mainland China is 
not in a hurry on unification and is adamant only on 
independence.  He saw TAO Director Sun Yafu's statement to 
Beijing University students before the Lien speech as a step 
forward, when Sun acknowledged that Beijing had been very 
inflexible on "one China" until a few years ago and was 
adjusting its "one China" definition to facilitate 
cross-Strait cooperation.  Stephen Chen also praised the 
balanced U.S. support in the cross-Strait process.  On the 
issue of balance, he expressed concern that President Chen in 
a hard line mode might try to distort U.S. encouragement of 
Beijing to negotiate with the elected authorities in Taipei 
-- an essential step, Stephen Chen noted -- to mean that Chen 
Shui-bian could just sit and wait for Beijing to make 
concessions. 
 
6.  (C) Stephen Chen argued that the PFP has been rendered 
largely meaningless in the cross-Strait process by May 14 and 
the PFP's "pitiful" 6 percent vote.  He told AIT the KMT had 
been surprised by how poorly staffed and prepared Soong was 
on his trip, inappropriately repeating "Republic of China" 
over and over and announcing that he would "sign an 
agreement" contrary to Taiwan law.  Rather, Chen insisted, 
the cross-Strait issue was now largely between DPP and KMT, 
with a reasonably good chance for cooperation now that the 
May 14 elections are over. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
7.  (C) While not a presidential insider on cross-Strait 
issues, Vice President Lu does represent a constituency of 
"deep Green" DPP supporters from which President Chen has 
apparently bought himself some breathing space with the May 
14 DPP victory.  Chen quickly reached out to Blue opposition 
leaders Lien and Soong after the DPP victory, calling for 
inter-party dialogue on cross-Strait issues.  Along with 
possible DPP-KMT cooperation on constitutional reforms in the 
National Assembly commencing the end of May, Chen's effort to 
reach out, in conjunction with some kind of public apology 
for his harsh campaign rhetoric, could facilitate DPP-KMT 
cross-Strait dialogue. 
PAAL