US embassy cable - 02AMMAN3727

C O N F I D E N T I A L AMMAN 003727 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR NEA AND PRM 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/08/2012 
TAGS: PREL, PREF, KPAL, KWBG, JO 
SUBJECT: QUIET IN JORDAN'S PALESTINIAN REFUGEE CAMPS: 
DISGUST WITH ARAFAT FOR "SELLING OUT" 
 
Classified By: DCM Greg Berry, per 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) In a July 3 meeting with refcoord, GOJ Department of 
Palestinian Affairs Director-General Abdulkarim Abulhaija 
shed some light on the calm that currently prevails in 
Jordan's refugee camps, in spite of continued tensions in the 
West Bank and Gaza.  Abulhaija attributed the calm to three 
factors.  First, demonstration fatigue.  Abulhaija said there 
is a sense in the camps that life simply must go on, no 
matter what happens in the Palestinian Territories.  Second, 
a combination of fear and political expediency.  Abulhaija 
said the GOJ had made it very clear in April that the 
security services would react -- "cruelly if necessary" -- to 
maintain stability in Jordan.  With parliamentary elections 
coming, he said, none of Jordan's recognized political 
players are willing to earn disfavor by pushing for 
unauthorized demonstrations.  As evidence, Abulhaija noted 
the ease with which trade unions recently cancelled plans for 
a U.S. boycott event after the GOJ made clear that the event 
would not be approved. 
 
2.  (C) Finally, Abulhaija attributed the current calm to 
great popular disgust with Arafat among many residents of 
Jordan's refugee camps, who believe Arafat has sold out his 
people.  According to Abulhaija, most Palestinians in Jordan 
view Arafat's mild reaction to President Bush's June 24 
Middle East policy speech as blatant self-preservation at the 
expense of the Palestinian people.  They therefore are 
unwilling to take to the streets in support of Arafat. 
Abulhaija added that even the Fatah factions in Jordan, with 
whom he had just met the same morning, "want to see Arafat 
go."  Abulhaija cautioned, however, that popular disgust with 
Arafat does not mean that Palestinians in Jordan would 
embrace a new leader "imposed" by the U.S. or Israel.  He 
predicted that any such leader would ultimately be 
assassinated, plunging the region into long-term instability. 
 Abulhaija concluded by rhetorically asking what the U.S. 
hoped to achieve by new Palestinian elections.  Arafat is 
still popular in the Territories, Abulhaija said, and likely 
would win a presidential election.  Where would that leave 
U.S. policy? 
 
3.  (C) Comment:  Abulhaija's comments on the reasons behind 
the current quiet in the camps and rising popular disdain for 
Arafat ring true to us and echo opinions we have heard from 
across the political spectrum in Jordan.  End comment. 
Gnehm