US embassy cable - 05OTTAWA1475

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 001475 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
 
DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/RPM 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/14/2014 
TAGS: CA, PGOV, EAID, MARR, MASS, MOPS, PREL, SU 
SUBJECT: THE POLITICS OF CANADA'S DARFUR INVOLVEMENT 
 
 
Classified By: POLMINCOUNS Brian Flora 1.4 (b) (d) 
 
1. (C/NF) Summary:  In an effort to shore up support for his 
tottering minority government, PM Martin gave in to the 
demands of independent MP David Kilgour and accelerated the 
announcement of a major increase in aid for Darfur, to 
include CN $200 million and up to Canadian Forces technical 
advisors in support of the AU mission.  In its rush to 
announce the package, however, the GOC may have neglected to 
coordinate with the Government of Sudan and is now trying to 
unruffle Khartoum's feathers.  Kilgour, meanwhile, considers 
the package inadequate, and it may have even affirmed his 
reasons for leaving the Liberal Party to begin with, which 
were expressed at the time as frustration with Liberal 
half-steps on important issues like Sudan.  We are told by 
senior PCO officials that even if the government falls on 
Thursday, initiatives like this that have the cabinet's 
blessing are expected to go forward with funding from the 
normal operating budgets of the respective ministries.  End 
Summary 
 
CANADIAN SUPPORT FOR SUDAN 
-------------------------- 
 
2. (C/NF) PM Martin announced May 12 that Canada would 
significantly increase its support for international efforts 
to bring peace and stability to Darfur.  Included in the 
package was CN $170 million in military and technical 
assistance to help the African Union to fulfill its mandate, 
CN $28 million of the CN $90 million announced at the April 
2005 Oslo Donors' Conference for humanitarian and peace 
support in Darfur and Chad through UN agencies, and enhanced 
diplomatic support for the AU-led mission.  The mission would 
also include up to 60 military technical advisors to support 
the AU force in non-combat roles.  Senior members of the 
Privy Council Office (protect) affirm that the government 
likely would coordinate subsequent military contributions 
under a NATO umbrella, if or when NATO is able to decide on 
assistance to the AU.  They also expect the Prime Minister to 
publicly support activities coordinated by NATO. 
 
WOOING THE INDEPENDENTS 
----------------------- 
 
3. (C/NF) While no one doubts that Sudan has been on the PM's 
mind for a long time, the announcement was, like most of the 
recent funding initiatives, geared very directly to the 
survival of the government.  Former Liberal and now 
independent MP David Kilgour transparently tied his support 
for the government in the upcoming no-confidence motion, to 
whether PM Martin would agree to make a significant effort to 
stop the genocide in Darfur.  PM Martin's government would 
need the support of all three independent MPs to survive, so 
Kilgour's vote is essential.  But Kilgour has argued in print 
that the package does not go far enough.  In an op-ed that 
ran Saturday in the National Post, Kilgour said that the aid 
announcement was welcome, "but unfortunately it largely 
missed the key point -- to put an immediate end to the 
ongoing violence across the Sudanese region."  For this, 
Kilgour said, quoting an estimate of Senator Romero Dallaire, 
"there is a need for 40,000 peacekeepers."  He criticized the 
PM's paltry offering, saying "PM Martin's commitment of no 
more than 100 peacekeepers for Darfur is anything but 
leadership."   Kilgour is also quoted by the Globe and Mail's 
Hugh Winsor as saying "I'm hoping against hope that Martin 
will do the right thing and live up to the Pearsonian 
tradition that we all espoused and the world expects of us. 
But if the Prime Minister is going to wimp out, then I have 
lost all faith in him." 
 
LACK OF COORDINATION WITH SUDAN 
------------------------------- 
 
4. (SBU) Piling on to the GOC's lack of support from Mr. 
Kilgour were a series of statements over the weekend by 
Sudanese Ambassador to Canada Faiza Hassan Taha.  Taha told 
reporters that "this plan has never been consulted or 
negotiated with the government of Sudan," and while she 
suggested that the Government of Sudan welcomed the provision 
of aid, also said it firmly objected to non-African soldiers 
in Darfur.  "We are not going to refuse any help which we 
think we need.  But we want to be there, in the picture, to 
participate fully as a government.  This is an agreement 
between the African Union and Sudan.  The African Union 
should be given the chance and should be given the 
opportunity to develop its own capacity in dealing with 
African problems."  She reiterated that the 60 Canadian 
military advisors should not be sent to Darfur, much less the 
500 or so that Mr. Kilgour was suggesting. 
5. (SBU) FAC issued a press release on May 13 which confirmed 
that Canada remains in close and constant contact with the AU 
and the Government of Sudan with respect to its engagements 
in Darfur.  A senior FAC official said that the issue was one 
of coordination with the Government of Sudan and the Canadian 
government would take the appropriate measures to ensure that 
the aid was properly administered.  Foreign Affairs 
Opposition critic Stockwell Day queried the FM and DefMin on 
the question of coordination with Sudan and asked about a 
report that the military advisors would be unarmed in 
Question Period May 16.  FM Pettigrew responded that FM 
Martin had personally spoken with Sudanese President Bashir 
on May 11, and that Canada has made full coordination of its 
assistance package with the UN, the United States, and NATO 
HQ.  Defense Minister Graham reminded Mr. Day that he had 
been in a committee meeting that morning when General Hillier 
told the MPs that he had been in the region recently and was 
well aware of what the African Union needs and the Canadian 
forces would only be there to provide back-up and support to 
the AU force.  He said the Canadian soldiers would have the 
proper protection for the tasks that they would be 
performing. 
 
CHANGE OF GOVERNMENT COMING? 
---------------------------- 
 
6. (C/NF) Looming over the Darfur operation of course, is the 
fact that the government could fall on May 19, if it loses 
the no-confidence vote over the budget.  PolMilCouns queried 
Tony Burger (protect), a senior foreign policy advisor at the 
Privy Council about what this would mean for Canada's support 
for Darfur.  Burger said the Darfur aid package was approved 
by the cabinet so it can be funded with current monies in 
advance of passage of the new budget.  In the event the 
government falls, Burger said, the aid package could still go 
forward with funding from the various ministry's normal 
operating budgets.  He acknowledged that there had been 
problems with the Government of Sudan over the package, but 
said that Canada was working through the AU to resolve them. 
 
7. (C/NF) Comment:  As the Globe's Hugh Winsor put it, "only 
in Canada could the fate of the Paul Martin government be 
riding on a rebellion and refugee crisis in a bereft region 
of Africa that many Canadians have never heard of."  Such, 
though, is the strange nature of minority government, 
especially one whose survival hangs by such a narrow margin. 
And yet ironically, it was the difficulty of getting things 
done in a minority government that probably stopped Martin 
from doing more for Sudan earlier.  It is the most obvious 
place to test his "responsibility to protect" doctrine, which 
is at the centerpiece of the PM's foreign policy.  Like much 
of the spending that is ongoing, Kilgour gave the PM the 
opportunity to do something he would like to do anyway.  We 
agree with the PCO that independent of how the vote goes on 
Thursday, some increase in support for Darfur will survive -- 
the Conservatives have been pushing the government to do more 
for Darfur for over a year.  But there is also no question 
that many programs would be scaled back or delayed until 
after the elections as the new government sorts itself out. 
The initiation of a high-risk peacekeeping mission would be 
an obvious place for caution and delay. 
 
Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa 
 
DICKSON