US embassy cable - 02AMMAN3726

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 003726 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/03/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KPAL, SOCI, IS, JO 
SUBJECT: AND THE SURVEY SAYS . . . GOJ POPULAR 
 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR EDWARD GNEHM FOR REASONS 1.5(B) AND (D). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C) On June 23, 2002, the Center for Strategic Studies 
(CSS) at the University of Jordan released the most recent 
iteration of its opinion poll assessing government 
popularity.  The poll indicates that a large segment of the 
Jordanian public continues to support Prime Minister Ali Abul 
Ragheb and his two-year-old government, both on issues 
related to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and more 
generally.  Some assert that the poll is flawed, though a 
contact at CSS naturally denies this.  End summary. 
 
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CSS POLL RESULTS 
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2. (C) CSS has been tracking government popularity since 
1993.  Its most recent poll contains seventeen questions, 
fourteen of which assess public attitudes towards the GOJ's 
stand on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and popular support 
for the Abul Ragheb government.  The poll samples two groups, 
a large demographically diverse "national" sample of 1470 
adults and a smaller sample of 700 opinion leaders -- 
businesspeople, professionals, union leaders, politicians, 
and academics. 
 
3. (U) The CSS poll indicates that most Jordanians support 
the GOJ's strongly pro-Palestinian stand vis-a-vis the 
Palestinian-Israeli conflict.  Nearly two-thirds of 
Jordanians in both polling samples say GOJ policies reflect 
public opinion to a medium or large degree.  In what may be 
the most revealing item in the survey, many respondents (38% 
in the national sample and 58% in the opinion-leader sample) 
believe the GOJ can do nothing to alleviate problems on the 
West Bank.  But even among those who believe the GOJ should 
do more, only a minority (24% in the national sample and 22% 
in the opinion-leader sample) favor severing or threatening 
to sever ties with Israel.  The balances in both groups favor 
moderate measures like sending aid to Palestinians and 
supporting international political initiatives.  Opinions 
within Jordan's Palestinian refugee camps mirror responses 
from the rest of the country. 
 
4. (U) The CSS poll also indicates a fairly high level of 
general support for the Abul Ragheb government.  Around 
two-thirds of Jordanians in both polling groups rate the 
current government's "capabilities" as satisfactory or 
better.  This figure is similar to the figures reported in 
the five previous CSS polls assessing support for Abul 
Ragheb's government.  On the other hand, respondents list 
unemployment and poverty as two important areas where the 
government should concentrate more effort. 
 
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REACTION TO THE POLL 
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5. (C) Reaction to the CSS poll is mixed.  A Jordan Times 
editorial praises Jordanian "sagacity" revealed in 
"reasonable, moderate, realistic and mature" responses to 
polling questions.  On the other hand, one long-time human 
rights contact believes the poll was crafted to "direct" 
results favorable to the government.  The CSS poll results, 
he also says, are worthless because the selection of "opinion 
leaders" is unscientific and susceptible to bias.  One former 
parliamentarian even more cynically opines that the CSS poll 
results are simply "untrue."  "How can we say that the people 
are happy with the government," he asks, "when the government 
has failed to ease the economic pressure they suffer from." 
 
6. (C) A contact at CSS, Dr. Hassan Barari, defends the poll 
as being carefully designed and professionally administered. 
He denies that polling questions are "leading," or that poll 
results are subject to any outside interference.  As evidence 
of the poll's integrity, Barari notes that the GOJ has 
previously adopted the unvarnished results of CSS polls even 
when they were not favorable to it.  In addition, Barari 
says, a reputable and experienced pollster (Tony Sabah) 
oversees CSS polling and CSS's credibility is such that it 
now teaches polling techniques to the Government of Yemen. 
 
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COMMENT 
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7. (C) Though CSS is the most respected polling organization 
in Jordan, it remains difficult to reconcile the published 
results of the CSS poll with ground-level sentiment in 
Jordan.  CSS polling questions are not obviously leading or 
misleading, but some questions are so complex that they may 
have generated poorly-considered responses.  (For example, 
one question assessing government popularity asks, in rough 
translation, "To what degree do you believe the government of 
Engineer Ali Abul Ragheb has been capable of shouldering the 
responsibilities of this era, from the time the government 
was formed until now?").  Also, some respondents may have 
feared that their replies would not remain confidential. 
Still, while it may be difficult to say -- based on this poll 
-- whether popular support for the current government is 
strong, the poll does seem to suggest that support for the 
government has remained much the same in recent months, 
despite the turmoil in the region.  End comment. 
Gnehm