US embassy cable - 05BOGOTA4571

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 004571 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/16/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, CO 
SUBJECT: SERPA ON LIBERAL PARTY DYNAMICS AND UPCOMING 
PRESIDENTIAL RACE 
 
REF: BOGOTA 2216 
 
Classified By: Ambassador William B. Wood, Reasons: 1.4 B & D. 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  Poloff met with two-time presidential 
candidate Horacio Serpa on May 11.  Serpa is resisting the 
move by former President Cesar Gaviria to take over the 
Liberal Party (PLC), believing the party would need to form a 
center-left alliance to effectively challenge President Uribe 
in the May 2006 presidential election.  He said opposition 
parties would not face a level playing field in challenging 
Uribe in the elections, but stopped short of endorsing the 
call by some PLC members to not run a candidate against 
Uribe.  Serpa criticized Uribe for a singular focus on public 
security at the expense of socioeconomic issues.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (C) On May 11, poloff met with Horacio Serpa, the Liberal 
Party's 1998 and 2002 presidential candidate and immediate 
past GOC ambassador to the OAS.  Regarding the upcoming PLC 
national convention in early June, Serpa continued to express 
reservations over a potential single party head in the person 
of former President and OAS SyG Cesar Gaviria.  Serpa argued 
that the current PLC leadership scheme, a ten-member 
executive council with a rotating presidency, is more 
inclusive of PLC members, and allows greater participation by 
women, young adults, and Afro-Colombians.  He also said a 
Gaviria party presidency would be dictatorial in nature and a 
step back from the PLC's recent campaign for greater openness 
and pluralism in the party. 
 
3.  (C) Serpa stated his belief that former Bogota mayor 
Enrique Penalosa and Senators Rafael Pardo and Rodrigo Rivera 
would enter the PLC's presidential nominee primary, ideally 
to take place in March 2006 on the same Sunday as 
Congressional elections (reftel).  Serpa refused to confirm 
his own intentions regarding the primary.  He did, however, 
stress that he had been talking to leaders of the major 
parties on the left -- the Democratic Pole (PDI) and 
Democratic Alternative (AD) -- about running a coalition 
left/center-left candidate against Uribe.  Serpa admitted 
that Gaviria, Penalosa, Pardo, and Rivera, however, were all 
strongly in favor of a go-alone PLC candidate. 
 
4.  (C) Serpa lamented the state of play of reelection 
implementing legislation in the Congress and the impasse over 
associated draft rules (known locally as "garantias") for 
creating a level playing field for candidates competing in 
the upcoming presidential race.  He criticized the GOC for 
treating the PLC and other left and center-left parties with 
disdain.  He noted the proposal by some PLC members not to 
field a candidate against Uribe in the absence of a fair 
playing field, but stopped short of endorsing it -- for the 
time being. 
 
5.  (C) Serpa recognized public security advances under Uribe 
but lamented the lack of attention to social issues.  He 
noted the critical state of the public education and public 
health systems.  With regard to fighting the FARC, Serpa 
stated that much-touted military successes were exaggerated 
to enhance prospects for Uribe's reelection.  He referred to 
recent FARC offenses -- most notably the siege of Toribio -- 
as evidence that the FARC threat is still alive and well. 
 
6.  (C) Comment:  Serpa's comments aside, the vast majority 
of our Liberal Party contacts concur that the Gaviria PLC 
presidency is a done deal.  A PLC-PDI-AD alliance for 2006 is 
unlikely, as the PDI and AD would resist Serpa as 
standard-bearer, and neither the PDI nor AD have a strong 
potential candidate.  While the debate over campaign rules of 
the game continues, the PLC as a collective is not likely to 
sit out the 2006 contest.  Serpa's own prospects for being 
the PLC nominee would be greatly strengthened were the 
Constitutional Court to rule that Uribe could not run. 
WOOD