US embassy cable - 05ABUDHABI2180

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABU DHABI 002180 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2015 
TAGS: PTER, PREL, KDEM, PGOV, IZ, IR, SA, TC 
SUBJECT: MFA UNDER SECRETARY MEETS NDU DELEGATION 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison, reasons 1.4 (b) 
and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: MFA Under Secretary Abdullah Rashid Al Noaimi 
met May 14 with Ambassador and a visiting delegation from the 
National Defense University's (NDU) National War College and 
reviewed the UAE's security concerns, and the political 
reform trends that are under way in the region.  Al Noaimi 
said terrorism tops the list of threats facing the UAE, but 
added that the UAE had thus far "contained" the threat with 
the cooperation of the U.S. and allies.  Iraq's current 
instability, Iran's military and nuclear ambitions, and the 
unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict, all potentially 
threaten the UAE's way of life.  In response to a question 
about the USG's Freedom Agenda, Al Noaimi said that the U.S. 
should encourage indigenous political reform in the region. 
End Summary. 
 
2. (U) A delegation from the NDU's National War College led 
by NDU President Lt. General Michael Dunn, including former 
U.S. Ambassador to the UAE, Marcelle Wahba, visited Abu Dhabi 
and Dubai May 12-16.  The group's "Field Studies in National 
Security" program included meetings with government 
officials, think tanks, UAE and American business people, 
advocates for women's rights, media professionals, and 
several Emirati alumni from NDU's Near East and South Asia 
Center seminars.  On May 14, Ambassador introduced the group 
to MFA Under Secretary Abdullah Rashid Al Noaimi. 
 
Threats to UAE's Security 
------------------------- 
 
3. (C) Al Noaimi chose the threats to the UAE's national 
security as the main theme for his briefing to the National 
War College group.  The UAE, he said, is faced with several 
major threats: 
 
-- Terrorism: The UAE's principal threat, terrorism would 
have a "very high impact" on the country's economy and 
political stability.  While there had been terror threats 
against UAE interests, the country had been spared any 
incidents.  Emiratis live in "a neighborhood of threats," 
citing Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, Yemen, Iraq, Saudi 
Arabia, and Egypt.  There are elements in these countries 
that would like to harm governments in the region.  The UAE 
is an "open" country that terrorists use as a transit point, 
he said.  He credited the UAE's active internal and external 
intelligence services and the good cooperation with the UAE's 
friends and allies, for "containing" the threat of terrorism. 
 
-- Instability in Iraq:  The UAE views the formation of the 
new Iraqi government as a "step in the right direction," Al 
Noaimi said, but Iraq is still a work in progress.  Iraq 
requires a national consensus, but that has been elusive thus 
far, as the difficulty in selecting a cabinet illustrated. 
"They need to sit together and agree together," he said. 
Political fragmentation would be dangerous and could lead to 
infighting among Kurds and among Shi'as, each of which has 
its own militias.  For its part, the UAE has responded by 
providing political, security, and humanitarian assistance to 
the Iraqis, and by working with the U.S. and other allies to 
help restore Iraq's security and stability. 
 
-- Iran:  Iran military power and its nuclear weapons 
ambitions worry the UAE.  A nuclear Iran is "unacceptable" to 
the UAE, Al Noaimi said.  Iran's military presence on the 
Tunbs and Moussa islands threaten trading routes in the Gulf, 
including the Straits of Hormuz.  Al Noaimi noted that the 
Iranians have been conducting military exercises and training 
related to mines, sea-to-sea missiles, and small submarines. 
Iranian military installations and arms on the islands make 
any tanker or shipping vessel vulnerable to an attack, he 
said.  The UAE deals with Iran using "both the carrot and the 
stick," although the existence of different factions within 
the Iranian government complicates discussions, Al Noaimi 
said.  Asked by an NWC student if the UAE would support a 
military action against Iran, Al Noaimi laughed and said his 
country "would not oppose it." 
 
-- Saudi Arabia: Tension exists between the UAE and Saudi 
Arabia over their unresolved common border, but Al Noaimi 
said he did not see that the dispute over the border will one 
day escalate into a military conflict.  "The temperature 
could rise and fall, but we will be able to handle it 
bilaterally or at the Gulf Cooperation Council," he said. 
"We don't want anything between us and the Saudis that would 
be an issue." 
 
-- Middle East peace: The unresolved conflict between 
Israelis and Palestinians sometimes poses a security threat 
to the UAE because of the sizable number of Palestinians, 
Jordanians, and Egyptians living and working in the UAE. 
"Any major setback in the peace process could affect the 
population here," Al Noaimi warned.  He urged the U.S. to 
play an impartial role in helping resolve the dispute as that 
would "remove a major obstacle that is making the U.S. 
unpopular in the region." 
-- UAE victim of its own success:  An economic success story, 
the UAE has proven to be a magnet for many people who want to 
come to the emirates to improve their economic situation. 
The UAE's attractiveness has allowed illegal migrants and 
infiltrators to seep across the country,s "uncontrolled 
borders," either by land or by sea, from Oman and Saudi 
Arabia, Al Noaimi said. 
 
Reform 
------ 
 
4. (C) Asked about his views on USG reform initiatives in the 
region, Al Noaimi acknowledged that the USG's approach to 
discussing reform had "improved" since the idea of a Greater 
Middle East initiative was first broached more than a year 
ago.  Emiratis understand that stability and prosperity 
depend on their acceptance of a system of governance, and 
that greater political participation, respect for human 
rights, and the rule of law are all very important 
principles, he said.  Yet, each society is unique, and is not 
going to accept one-size-fits-all approach.  "You can't 
impose from the outside.  It has to develop from society 
itself," he said of reform initiatives.  Political reforms 
manifest themselves differently in different countries, and 
should be regarded as an ongoing experiment in this region, 
he added. 
 
5. (C) Al Noaimi said the UAE was "happy" with its experiment 
with reform, noting the active discussion in local newspapers 
and on television talk shows about whether to elect members 
to the Federal National Council, and the trend toward 
broadening the role of civil society, including a future role 
for labor unions.  Compared to four decades ago, the UAE's 
political institutions have evolved considerably, including a 
stronger role for the executive councils in each of the seven 
emirates, he said.  Al Noaimi said the UAE also has a freer 
press and respects human rights.  The UAE's model of 
governance appeals to Iraqis, according to an opinion poll Al 
Noaimi had read.  Al Noaimi said he thought that President 
Bush should speak forcefully about political openness in the 
region.  While there will be those who will interpret this as 
interference and who may oppose any kind of U.S.-funded 
reform initiative, others will welcome U.S. encouragement on 
political openness and any technical assistance the U.S. 
could offer, he said. 
SISON