US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI2166

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 002166 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, TW 
SUBJECT: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTION UPDATE 
 
REF: TAIPEI 02066 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  On election eve, the National Assembly (NA) 
election remains largely overshadowed by media focus on 
cross-Strait relations, Soong's PRC visit, and President 
Chen's relations with other political leaders.  Nevertheless 
the major parties have launched a last minute effort to 
mobilize support for their NA tickets.  The ruling Democratic 
Progressive Party (DPP) is emphasizing its long-standing 
commitment to constitutional reform.  The KMT has rolled out 
its familiar theme of the "ROC" and cross-Strait stability. 
Finding itself positioned on the same side of the aisle with 
the DPP in support of proposed constitutional reforms, the 
KMT has had to counter allegations from deep Blue critics 
that the constitutional reforms it supports will lead to de 
jure Taiwan independence.  The People First Party (PFP) has 
attempted to portray itself as the party of moderation and 
reconciliation, but even James Soong's May 12 meeting with 
PRC leader Hu Jintao has failed to ignite much enthusiasm 
among PFP voters.  The pro-independence Taiwan Solidarity 
Union (TSU) continues to leverage Pan-Green discontent over 
President Chen's relatively conciliatory stance on recent 
Pan-Blue visits to the Mainland to obscure the fact that it 
is running against the popular constitutional reforms.  End 
Summary. 
 
Turnout Rate Decides Election 
----------------------------- 
 
2. (U) A TVBS poll released May 11 showed the KMT garnering 
29 percent of the votes cast island-wide, DPP 22 percent, TSU 
four percent, and PFP three percent.  The poll also predicted 
a voter turnout rate of 42 percent, with a substantial 61 
percent of the public still reporting they do not understand 
the issues in the NA election.  Other political observers 
predicted an even lower turnout, noting that the lack of 
enthusiasm among centrist voters is likely to benefit those 
parties that succeed in mobilizing core supporters on 
election day.  Legislative Yuan (LY) President Wang Jin-pyng, 
a KMT Vice Chairman, told AIT that DPP might perform slightly 
better than the KMT because 60 percent of DPP supporters will 
turn out to vote while only 40 percent of KMT supporters will 
go to the polls on election day. 
 
DPP: True Reformers 
------------------- 
 
3. (C) Despite coming under pressure following his earlier 
attacks on his political opponents, Chen Shui-bian has 
continued to dominate the air waves this week, during which 
he has touted the proposed constitutional reforms as crucial 
to Taiwan's political development.  Chen used most of a 
two-hour televised interview on May 12 to explain the 
significance of the NA election and the constitutional 
revision package.  While Chen rejected James Soong's "two 
sides, one China" formulation in his May 12 televised remarks 
-- a hardline response in part aimed at shoring up 
last-minute support for the DPP in the May 14 election -- his 
overall tone last night were more conciliatory than those he 
made in two television interviews earlier this week.  Chen, 
for example, largely chose not to criticize the KMT, which 
shares the DPP's position on the constitutional reform 
package. 
 
4. (C) The Executive Yuan's (EY) Research, Development and 
Evaluation Commission (RDEC) Minister Yeh Jiunn-rong, a DPP 
nominee for the NA, told AIT that DPP and KMT cooperation in 
the NA constitutional reforms will provide another 
opportunity for cross-party cooperation, in addition to 
President Chen's invitation for cross-party cooperation on 
cross-Strait issues.  The two parties, he explained, will 
need to coordinate and work together, first, to try and pass 
the NA Procedural Implementing Law in the ten days before the 
NA meets around June 1 and, failing that, in the NA itself to 
pass procedural rules on which the NA will operate.  In any 
event, he told AIT, he expects the NA meetings to proceed 
smoothly.  Many of the members, he pointed out, will be 
scholars like himself, rather than contentious politicians. 
 
KMT: Popularity Contest 
----------------------- 
 
5. (C) The KMT is once again playing it safe and using 
familiar themes in the NA campaign.  As it did in the 
December 2004 Legislative Yuan (LY) election campaign, the 
KMT is defining the NA election as a struggle to safeguard 
the "Republic of China" and to promote cross-Strait 
stability.  The party has been emphasizing its commitment to 
peaceful and stable political reform, while campaigning to 
refute allegations that the LY-approved constitutional reform 
package would lead to de jure Taiwan independence.  KMT 
Overseas Affairs Director Ho Szu-yin told AIT that the actual 
issues that the NA will debate are "far too complicated" for 
the electorate, so the KMT has not even attempted to explain 
them.  Rather, Ho explained, the KMT has presented the NA 
election as a "thermometer" for partisan popularity.  Citing 
a DPP internal poll that showed approval rating for the KMT 
increasing by ten percent after KMT Chairman Lien Chan's 
return from the PRC, Ho said the KMT is hoping to be able to 
turn the success of Lien's PRC visit into electoral support. 
 
6. (C) The KMT may be trying some scare tactics as well. 
RDEC Minister and DPP candidate Yeh told AIT that he was 
caught off guard by the sudden reemergence of the "name 
rectification" (zhengming) issue on May 9.  That day's 
pro-Blue United Daily News reported that a "high level source 
in the Executive Yuan" disclosed that Premier Frank Hsieh 
intended to revive name rectification and "will soon restart 
the plan for changing the name of state-run companies and 
overseas representative offices and will promote this plan in 
stages."  Yeh explained that the report brought back 
unpleasant memories of President Chen's unsuccessful effort 
to use name rectification as an issue in the December LY 
campaign.  When Yeh queried EY Secretary General Lee 
Ying-yuan, Lee told Yeh -- and later publicly stated -- that 
the report was false.  Lee explained to Yeh that he himself 
is in charge of the committee that handles name 
rectification, and that committee had not met since Premier 
Hsieh put name rectification on hold after taking office in 
January 2005.  The newspaper report, Yeh charged angrily, was 
"KMT disinformation" to scare voters away from the DPP and 
into the arms of the KMT. 
 
PFP: In Soong's Shadow 
---------------------- 
 
7. (C) The PFP is hoping to win the support of centrist 
voters by promoting the theme of party-to-party 
reconciliation.  PFP has been running a television commercial 
portraying an antique Portuguese map of an earth-colored 
Taiwan melding into the color blue in the North and green in 
the South.  When the two colors clash, the island splits in 
two, and a voice-over asks how did Taiwan become one country 
on each side (yi bian yi guo).  An orange (the PFP's color) 
thread then weaves the two sides together and restores unity 
and equanimity to the island. 
 
8. (C) PFP Legislator Sun Ta-chien, however, told AIT that he 
does not believe the party's campaign theme has been 
successful in arousing votes for the PFP.  Soong's continued 
flirtation with Chen Shui-bian, he complained, has caused 
many PFP core supporters to abandon the party.  Soong's 
public insistence that he is not Chen's envoy and opposition 
to Taiwan independence, notwithstanding, Sun lamented that 
"Soong is too close to Abian."  On Chen's public charge that 
Soong held a secret meeting in the U.S. with PRC Taiwan 
Affairs Office Director Chen Yunlin, Sun noted that Soong had 
denied the charge but wondered why Soong had not lashed out 
at Chen for making the accusation.  Sun told AIT that, 
despite the PFP's best efforts, he predicted the KMT and DPP 
will win the election and the PFP will end up with only three 
percent of the vote.  The real problem, he said, is that 
James Soong does not care about this election, and that the 
media coverage garnered for Soong's PRC visit will help only 
Soong himself. 
 
TSU: Capturing the DPP Protest Vote 
 
SIPDIS 
----------------------------------- 
 
9. (C) The pro-independence TSU has targeted its NA campaign 
at "deep" Green supporters who are increasingly dissatisfied 
with President Chen's tack to the political center following 
the December 2004 LY election.  The TSU has also seized on 
deep Green anger over the Pan-Blue outreach to the PRC, 
characterizing the NA election as a struggle between forces 
that support Taiwanization and those obsessed with "China 
fever."  TSU Secretary General Chen Chien-ming told AIT that 
his party sees the NA election as crucial to its long-term 
survival.  If the party can outperform its disappointing 
showing in December 2004, Chen said, then it will have a much 
greater say on issues like nominations for the December local 
election.  TSU officials and PFP officials are also hoping to 
gain a combined 25 percent of the vote in order to have a 
chance to shape NA procedural rules in a way that may derail 
the reform package. 
 
Comment: Highjacked Election 
---------------------------- 
 
10. (C) The NA election has clearly lost its original focus. 
The purpose of the election has transformed from being an 
opportunity to elect party representatives to debate and 
ratify a set of constitutional amendments passed by the LY 
last August to being a public verdict on the performance on 
the leaders of each political party.  From the beginning, the 
NA election attracted little public interest because the 
Taiwan electorate traditionally and historically "votes for 
the candidate, not a party."  In order to attract interest in 
the election, the political parties hitched their NA election 
campaigns to the media attention on Lien and Soong's PRC 
visits and Chen's reactions to those visits. 
PAAL