US embassy cable - 05YEREVAN847

C O N F I D E N T I A L YEREVAN 000847 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/SNEC, EUR/SE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, TU, AM 
SUBJECT: MARKARYAN'S STATEMENT ON ARMENIA-TURKEY BORDER 
OPENING MORE ABOUT COVER THAN FACTS 
 
Classified By: DCM A.F. Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C) A loosely translated May 12 statement by Armenian 
Prime Minister Andranik Markaryan regarding the possible 
opening of the Armenia-Turkey border by the end of the year 
sparked speculation in Yerevan about potential developments 
in the bilateral relationship.  The statement, which appears 
totally disconnected from any developments or political 
reality, is likely an attempt by Markaryan to temper earlier, 
more aggressive statements he made regarding Turkey during 
May 9 commemoration events.  MFA contacts told Post May 13 
that they were surprised by Markaryan's comments and, while 
always hopeful for a breakthrough on the border issue, they 
unfortunately had no news to report on the subject.  End 
Summary. 
 
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MARKARYAN MAKES PREDICTIONS, SPARKS SPECULATION 
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2. (C) During a May 12 press conference marking his fifth 
year in office as Prime Minister, Andranik Markaryan stated 
that the GOAM and GOT would work to open the Armenia-Turkey 
border "by the end of 2005."  Loosely translated versions of 
the statement were widely carried in the local media, 
sparking speculation about a possible breakthrough or policy 
shift on the issue.  Markaryan predicted that an open border 
with Turkey would not adversely affect local markets or 
producers as some in Armenia fear.  He reminded reporters of 
similar fears that circulated before Armenia launched trade 
relations with Iran and noted the already steady flow of 
goods from Turkey that arrive in Armenia via Georgia. 
 
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MFA:  UNFORTUNATELY, NO NEWS 
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3. (C) When questioned about Markaryan's statement, MFA 
contacts told us May 13 that they were surprised by the 
comments and confirmed that there was no substantial news to 
report on the issue.  (Note:  We believe that we were in fact 
the ones to first alert the MFA to the statement early May 
13.  While there has been a recent shift in MFA staff who 
follow Turkish issues (septel), the Turkish Desk and Middle 
East Affairs Department Chief are extremely well connected on 
the policy scene and would have been aware of a significant 
policy announcement well in advance.  End Note.)  The MFA 
added that, while always hopeful for a breakthrough on the 
border issue, they did not see any immediate change in sight, 
especially given what appeared to be an impasse between 
President Robert Kocharian and Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan 
on the issue of the GOT's proposal for a joint commission to 
study the facts surrounding the events of 1914-15.  In 
addition, the MFA was not optimistic regarding a rumored 
meeting between the two leaders in Warsaw May 16-17 during 
the Council of Europe Summit. 
 
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COMMENT 
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4. (C) While still the major figure within the ranks of the 
Republican Party and by no means reluctant to take a stand on 
tough policy issues, Markaryan tends to shy away from 
questions regarding foreign relations.  This tendency makes 
Markaryan's recent proclamations on Turkey even more 
interesting.  His May 12 statement, which appears totally 
disconnected from any developments or political reality, is 
likely an attempt to temper earlier, more aggressive 
statements he made in both public and private settings 
regarding Turkey during May 9 commemoration events.  Such 
assertions are not an unusual political talking points in 
Yerevan (and are even the usual mantra for some parties 
including the ARF Dashnak Party); these earlier statements by 
the PM, however, were not in line with the GOAM's official 
party line as expressed by Foreign Minister Oskanian.  We 
suspect, and our contacts confirm for now, that Markaryan was 
instructed to clarify the GOAM stance on relations with 
Turkey and in so doing may have over-delivered and somewhat 
distorted expectations for the moment. 
EVANS