US embassy cable - 05KINSHASA800

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINSHASA 000800 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/12/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KPKO, CG 
SUBJECT: FDLR REPATRIATION UPDATE 
 
REF: A. KINSHASA 764 
     B. KINSHASA 465 
 
Classified By: Poloff Meghan Moore for Reasons 1.4 B and D 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY. FDLR President Dr. Ignace Murwanashyaka, 
MONUC DDRRR Chief, and Congolese officials went to the Kivus 
May 11 to try to persuade FDLR members and their families to 
return to Rwanda. Most Kinshasa-based international 
observers, however, are not optimistic about the FDLR 
President's chances of succeeding. END SUMMARY. 
 
Murwanashyaka's Prospects 
------------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) On May 11, FDLR President Dr. Ignace Murwanashyaka, 
MONUC DDRRR Chief Peter Swarbrick, and three mid-level 
Congolese officials went to the Kivus to try to convince FDLR 
members and their families to return to Rwanda. Murwanashyaka 
is currently in Walungu and Hombo with advisors to National 
Security Advisor Samba Kaputo. MONUC DDRRR Chief, however, 
was not invited to accompany and stayed in Bukavu. 
 
3. (C) While in Kinshasa, Murwanashyaka met with some members 
of the diplomatic community (Note: but not with the U.S.). 
All those we spoke with said they question whether 
Murwanashyaka has the authority (over troops) or the 
political will to deliver FDLR repatriation. The Swedes and 
the Canadians, for example, expressed their lack of 
confidence in Murwanashyaka's ability to deliver. They noted 
that Murwanashyaka was still calling for "political space" 
for the FDLR, a formal "comite de suivi" to be created by the 
international community, and even an end to the gacaca 
trials. When told by the Canadian Charge that the FDLR had 
two choices--return to Rwanda or face military action by 
MONUC, Murwanashyaka laughed and said, "let them try." 
 
Nyamwisi's Unlikely Alternative 
------------------------------- 
 
4.(C) Minister of Regional Cooperation Mbusa Nyamwisi told 
poloff May 12 that there were two main reasons why the FDLR 
had not started large-scale repatriation--Murwanashyaka was 
not the right man for the job, and advisors close to the 
President lacked the political will to make the FDLR leave. 
Nyamwisi said that Murwanashyaka (a political choice without 
ties to the genocide) did not have much credibility with 
field-based units, and was personally opposed to the FDLR's 
unconditional return during December 2004 negotiations. 
Nyamwisi also claimed that advisors close to the President 
were actively preventing Nyamwisi's participation in the 
process. He asserted that if he were allowed to participate 
he could get at least 200 FDLR members near Lubero to 
repatriate immediately. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
5. (C) Many diplomatic and MONUC observers note that there 
increasingly are two obstacles to realizing voluntary 
return--Murwanashyaka's incapacity/insincerity, and Rwanda's 
discouraging statements. On the latter, many wonder if the 
U.S., possibly through the Tripartite mechanism, could not do 
more to encourage Rwanda. Nyamwisi's intent May 12 was 
clearly to re-pitch his March message to the Ambassador 
(reftel B)--i.e., he is the best hope for repatriating the 
FDLR from North Kivu--an unlikely possibility at best. We 
think, along with MONUC and others, and based on extensive 
prior experience with him, that he would be even less likely 
to deliver them than Murwanashyaka. 
DOUGHERTY