US embassy cable - 05BOGOTA4467

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BOGOTA 004467 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KJUS, CO 
SUBJECT: OVERVIEW OF COLOMBIAN FEDERAL ELECTORAL ISSUES 
 
1.  (U) Summary:  This is the first in a series of cables 
on elections for Congress and President that will take 
place in March and May, 2006, respectively.  The President 
is elected by nationwide vote.  Much like the U.S., House 
seats are allocated to each department based on 
population, but the voting method is notably different. 
Senators are elected nationwide, rather than by district. 
The number of political parties (currently 60) will reduce 
sharply in 2006, as 2003 legislation mandates a minimal 
nationwide vote threshold in House and Senate elections 
for parties to maintain their official status. 
Preferential voting (voter selection of individual 
candidates from party-approved lists) and the D'Hondt 
method will also come into play for the first time in 
Congressional elections.  Several proposals to allow some 
pre-election public financing are under consideration in 
the Congress.  Under current law, all campaign spending is 
from private sources.  Candidates are, however, reimbursed 
from government coffers after the election based on the 
number of votes received.  While spending caps exist for 
each electoral contest, individual donations are not 
restricted in monetary terms (unless a donation were to 
exceed the spending cap).  End Summary. 
 
The Stakes 
---------- 
 
2.  (U) Colombians elect the entire House and Senate in 
March 2006.  There are no term limits.  The House and 
Senate are made up of 166 and 102 members, respectively. 
House seats are allocated to each department (plus Bogota) 
based on population, much like the U.S. system.  However, 
at the polls, residents of a particular department select 
only one House candidate from various lists, each 
containing a number of candidates less than or equal to 
the number of House seats for that department.  (For 
example, Antioquia Department has 17 House seats; citizens 
in that department vote for one person for the House, from 
one of various party lists, each of which contains up to 
17 names.)  Senate races are decided on a national basis. 
Each citizen may vote for one person for Senate. 
 
3.  (U) Presidential elections will take place in May 
2006.  If no one candidate receives a majority of the 
votes in the first round, a runoff election pits the two 
highest first-round finishers.  In late 2004, Congress 
passed Constitutional reform to permit the President to be 
re-elected one time.  The Constitutional amendment is 
under review by the Constitutional Court.  A decision is 
expected in September, according to GOC contacts. 
 
First Law of 2003 
----------------- 
 
4.  (U) In July 2003, Congress passed the First Law, which 
took effect beginning with departmental assembly and city 
council elections in October of that year.  The law 
contains three principal elements: 
 
--Application of a minimum nationwide vote threshold in 
Congressional elections for a political party to maintain 
its official status; 
 
--Preferential voting to allow citizens to express 
preference for one candidate within a party's overall list 
of candidates for a particular office, regardless of that 
candidate's original ranking on the list (previously a 
voter merely selected the party, and could not assign 
his/her vote to a particular individual on the party's 
list); and 
 
--Use of the D'Hondt method, a highest average system 
named after Belgian mathematician Victor D'Hondt (see para 
8). 
 
5.  (U) In mid-March, the Constitutional Court ruled that 
preferential voting was constitutional, ending legal 
challenges against it.  Preferential voting and D'Hondt 
divisor do not apply to Presidential, gubernatorial, and 
mayoral elections, which are direct in nature (i.e., no 
lists). 
 
Vote Threshold 
-------------- 
 
6.  (U) Beginning in 2006, in order for an existing 
political party (60 at present) to maintain its official 
status, it will need to meet a minimum nationwide vote 
threshold (umbral in Spanish) of 2 percent in 
either/either the House or Senate elections.  Two 
thresholds will be calculated based on the total number of 
votes cast nationwide for House and Senate, respectively. 
While projections vary, most estimates hold that only 7-10 
parties will maintain their official status after the 
March elections. 
 
Preferential Voting 
------------------- 
 
7.  (U) Preferential voting, which first came into effect 
with departmental assembly and city council elections in 
October 2003, will apply in upcoming Congressional 
contests.  Political parties craft rank-ordered lists of 
candidates for each office.  The party must decide, prior 
to the election, whether to employ the preferential or non- 
preferential method.  The party's decision will be clearly 
stated on the ballot.  Under the preferential method, the 
voter may cast a direct vote for any individual within the 
party's list, regardless of the candidate's ranking on 
said list.  The vote counts toward threshold and D'Hondt 
(see below) calculations for the party in question.  Under 
the non-preferential method (the only method in use prior 
to 2003), the voter merely selects the particular party. 
The vote is then awarded to the candidate the party placed 
at the top of its list. 
 
D'Hondt Method 
-------------- 
 
8.  (U) According to statistical reference materials, the 
D'Hondt method allocates seats in proportion to the number 
of votes a list received.  After the vote count, 
successive quotients are calculated for each list.  The 
quotient is calculated using the formula V/(s+1), with V 
being the total number of votes that list received, and s 
the number of seats that party has been allocated so far 
(initially zero for all parties).  The list with the 
highest quotient gets the next seat allocated, and its 
quotient is recalculated given its new seat total.  The 
process is repeated until all seats have been allocated. 
While a party receiving relatively few votes may still 
qualify for a seat under this method, it is considered to 
favor the parties receiving the most votes per successful 
candidate.  These parties will have a larger quotient, 
thereby giving them more seats.  Generally, these will be 
the larger parties. 
 
Campaign Finance 
---------------- 
 
9.  (U) While political parties receive small amounts of 
public funding for ongoing operations (physical plant, 
salaries, and the like), pre-election campaign finance 
comes from private sources.  Candidates are, however, 
partially reimbursed from public coffers after the 
election based on number of votes received.  The National 
Electoral Council (CNE) sets a spending limit for each 
race.  Donations are limited only in the sense that any 
single gift cannot exceed the spending cap for the race in 
question.  Corporate gifts have traditionally dominated. 
The Congress is currently considering three proposals for 
campaign finance reform (in the context of implementing 
legislation for the recent Constitutional reform to permit 
Presidential reelection), each of which would provide for 
additional public financing. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
10.  (SBU) The impact of the pre-2003 electoral system had 
been to fragment parties since small parties could still 
qualify for seats in Congress.  The "reforms" may undo 
that and return Colombia to a system of a few strong 
parties with highly centralized leadership.  It is not 
clear, however, that this will actually lead to a change 
in the members of Congress, since current members will 
generally fall back into the major parties from which they 
came.  If that happens, the party leadership will be 
strengthened and the responsiveness to constituents may be 
correspondingly weakened - a reversion to Colombia's 
political tradition. 
WOOD