US embassy cable - 05PORTAUPRINCE1335

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT AU PRINCE 001335 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA AND USOAS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, HA, Elections 
SUBJECT: PROTESTANT HAS GOOD SHOT AT HAITIAN PRESIDENCY IF 
HE CAN MOBILIZE VOTERS 
 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i., Douglas M. Griffiths for Reason 
 1.4(d) 
 
1.  (SBU)  Summary:  Pastor Chavannes Jeune of the National 
Union of Christians for the Renovation of Haiti (UNCRH) 
discussed his pending candidacy for president with the 
Ambassador.  Jeune said UNCRH would field candidates at all 
levels and there was "extraordinary consensus" that the 
Protestant community, which had traditionally avoided 
participating in politics, was tired of the current situation 
and would back a "moral candidate."  Jeune believes that if 
he can mobilize the Protestant voting population, he would 
win November's presidential election.  Jeune's fundraising 
activities would, if successful, give him a significant 
advantage.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (U)  On May 4, Ambassador met with Pastor Chavannes Jeune 
of the National Union of Christians for the Renovation of 
Haiti (UNCRH) to discuss Jeune's pending candidacy for 
president.  Jeune explained that Haiti has seen a decrease in 
the number of Catholics and an exponential increase of 
Protestants over the past decade.  Jeune cited a 2002 study 
done by the Center of Economic and Social Research for 
Training and Development (CRESFED).  (Note: This organization 
is led by OPL's Executive Secretary Suzy Castor, widow of OPL 
founder Gerard Pierre Charles.  End Note.)  According to the 
study, nearly 42 percent of the Haitian population is 
Protestant.  Jeune quoted a more exact figure of 39.2 
percent.  (Note: The study was based in Port-au-Prince and 
the results may not accurately reflect the current religious 
breakdown throughout the country. End Note.) 
 
3.  (U)  Jeune does have national name recognition, 
particularly in the south.  He hosted a radio talk show for 
several years on the religious-based station Radio Lumiere 
which broadcasts throughout Haiti and can be heard in parts 
of the Dominican Republic.  Jeune claimed that his church has 
200,000 members and if one includes the other sects, 1.8 
million possible votes (out of a possible 4 million potential 
voters.)  Jeune believes that if he can mobilize the 
Protestant voting population of Haiti, he would win 
November's presidential election. 
 
Raising Funds for Elections 
--------------------------- 
 
4.  (SBU)  Jeune had just returned from Canada where he 
headlined a $25 per plate fund-raiser that attracted 700 
participants.  He was to attend a $100 per plate fund-raiser 
in Miami on May 6.  Jeune said UNCRH would receive matching 
funds for every dollar the party raised from Partners 
International, an organization of Christian businessman based 
in Michigan (www.partnersworldwide.org)  To date, Jeune told 
the Ambassador, UNCRH had raised $150,000 and with matching 
funds had approximately $300,000 to finance the campaign. 
 
5.  (SBU)  Jeune said UNCRH would field candidates at all 
levels, from the city councils to the presidency.  He said 
the party was founded in November 2004 and is awaiting formal 
recognition by the Ministry of Justice that Jeune expects 
"within a couple of weeks."  His party planned to train 
25,000 civic educators to branch out throughout the country 
and teach citizens about their civic duty over a 4-month 
period.  Jeune visited USAID in Washington on the margins of 
his attendance at the Inter-American Dialogue's forum on 
elections.  Jeune said he met with the International 
Republican Institute's Chief of Party Walter Turnball (who is 
now in Port-au-Prince) in D.C.  Jeune said he already had a 
team in place discussing a 25-year development plan that has 
become the party's platform. Jeune said that if UNCRH wins, 
he would be open to forming a coalition government. 
 
Seeking Alliances & Pushing for a Primary 
----------------------------------------- 
 
6.  (C)  Jeune said that he is pushing other 
Christian-affiliated parties to hold some sort of primary 
election to determine who would be the Protestant candidate. 
He told the Ambassador that Pastor Luc Mesadieu, leader of 
the Gonaives-based Christian Movement for a New Haiti 
(MOCHRENA) party, had ruled out participating in any sort of 
primary.  (Note: Mesadieu announced his candidacy for the 
presidency at MOCHRENA's April 9 conference. End Note.) 
Jeune said this intransigence on the part of Mesadieu had led 
11 members of MOCHRENA's governing committee to resign from 
their posts. 
 
7.  (U)  Prior to meeting with the Ambassador, Jeune had 
attended a meeting of nearly 300 pastors from throughout 
Haiti at Kaliko Beach (located approximately 40 miles from 
Port-au-Prince).  Jeune said there was "extraordinary 
consensus" that the Protestant community had to back a "moral 
candidate" if it wanted the country to "become moral" and 
find its way out of its current abyss.  Jeune said that the 
Protestant community had traditionally avoided participating 
in politics, but that they were tired of the current 
situation and had decided to get involved.  Jeune told us 
that the church would not formally endorse a candidate but 
would find ways, informally, to spread the word.  (Note: 
Press reports May 9 said Protestant leaders emphasized 
separation of the church and politics and that it would not 
back any mandate or any particular candidate, but was not 
averse to each citizen's freedom to be called to serve the 
country.  End note.) 
 
8.  (C)  Asked about a Gerard Jean-Juste candidacy, Jeune 
replied that former Prime Minister Cherestal or former 
President Preval had a better chance of representing Lavalas, 
and believed that Aristide would not bless a Jean-Juste 
candidacy. Asked about Aristide's potential to sabotage the 
elections, Jeune replied that it depended on the 
international community, the Haitian National Police, and the 
Haitian population. Jeune said that if either one succumbs to 
Aristide's "psychological warfare," the population would not 
get out and vote. 
 
9.  (SBU)  Jeune said UNCRH is pursuing talks with 
non-Protestant parties including the Social Democrats, OPL, 
and KID.  These talks, according to Jeune, are not directed 
toward establishing a formal alliance or fusion of parties. 
Rather, they are discussing a governability pact.  (Note: 
This oft-mentioned notion requires the losing party to work 
as a loyal opposition to the victor from this year's 
elections.  The goal is to overcome the Haitian political 
tradition of the opposition being exiled and/or undermining 
the authority of the elected government in power. End Note.) 
Jeune said his first act as president would be to issue a 
pardon for all political crimes to enable the country to 
achieve national reconciliation and have a fresh start. 
 
10.  (C)  Comment:  Jeune's Protestant electorate, if 
mobilized, could carry a candidate to victory, or at least 
play a significant role in determining the outcome.  The 
problem is that the Protestants have traditionally shied away 
from politics, and have never been able to forge sufficient 
unity among a multiplicity of denominations.  2005 could 
indeed be a turning point, however, if Jeune is to be 
believed.  Failing that, Jeune admitted, he would be "handing 
the presidency to Evans Paul" (of KID).  End comment. 
 
11.  (U)  Bio Note:  Jeune studied in the United States, and 
speaks English well. 
GRIFFITHS