US embassy cable - 05CAIRO3627

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 003627 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/12/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ECON, EG, Egyptian Politics 
SUBJECT: PROMINENT REFORM ADVOCATE DISCUSSES CONSTITUTIONAL 
AMENDMENT AND POSSIBLE POSTPONEMENT OF CONFERENCE ON 
U.S.-EGYPT RELATIONS 
 
 
Classified by Charge Gordon Gray for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  Shafik Gabr praised the recent amendment to 
Egypt's presidential election law but said the GOE had done a 
poor job of explaining it.  He hoped a scheduled May 12 news 
conference by Gamal Mubarak would clear the air.  He was 
impatient with opposition complaints about the amendment and 
suggested they should stop grousing and start campaigning. 
While supportive of international monitors for presidential 
elections, Gabr expressed fear that President Bush's call for 
them might backfire.  Gabr said that he will travel to 
Washington next week with Prime Minister Nazif, partly to 
press for high-level USG participation in his upcoming 
conference on U.S.-Egypt relations.  Gabr said if he leaves 
Washington without participation commitments from the highest 
levels of the USG, he will postpone the conference for a 
second time.  End summary. 
 
2.  (C) The Charge met May 11 with well-connected Egyptian 
businessman and prominent political reform advocate Shafik 
Gabr to discuss the Article 76 amendment altering rules for 
presidential elections.  Gabr was very upbeat about the 
amendment.  He would have preferred that aspiring independent 
presidential candidates be required to obtain a smaller 
number of parliamentary signatures to run than currently 
stipulated, but argued that the amendment was a significant 
step forward nevertheless. 
 
3.  (C) Gabr added that the requirement that any party 
wishing to put forward a candidate in future presidential 
elections hold at least five percent of the seats in the 
People's Assembly (PA) was a reasonable one.  The Charge 
cautioned that the rule could be considered reasonable only 
if the upcoming parliamentary elections resulted in truly 
diverse party representation in the PA.  If the PA remains 
wholly dominated by the ruling National Democratic Party 
(NDP), the Charge argued, the amendment would be meaningless. 
 Gabr agreed. 
 
4.  (C) Gabr complained that the GOE had done a terrible job 
of explaining the amendment publicly.  He noted that the 
amendment was complex, with different rules for elections 
this year and for elections in the future.  Because there is 
so much misunderstanding about what the amendment means, Gabr 
continued, it was easy for opposition parties to condemn it 
and for other observers to assume the worst.  Gabr explained 
that NDP Policies Committee Chair Gamal Mubarak would hold a 
press conference May 12 to explain the amendment and try to 
clear up the confusion. 
 
5.  (C) Regarding the opposition parties, Gabr said they 
"need to stop complaining and start running (candidates)." 
In response to a question from the Charge, Gabr said that 
nothing in the amendment would prevent the Tomorrow Party 
from naming Ayman Nour as its candidate for the upcoming 
election.  Gabr could not say what impact conviction for 
forgery would have on Nour's eligibility.  (Note:  Most 
observers agree that under the current law on political 
rights a conviction would make Nour ineligible for the 
presidency.  End note.) 
 
6.  (C) Gabr was critical of President Bush's recent call for 
international monitors to observe upcoming elections.  Gabr 
stressed that he agreed with the principle and had been 
pressing the Egyptian leadership to accept international 
monitors, but that the President's public call would backfire 
by prompting hard-liners to dig in their heels.  Pressure for 
international monitoring should be applied, Gabr said, but 
privately rather than publicly. 
 
7.  (C) Gabr noted that he would be accompanying Prime 
Minister Nazif on his upcoming visit to Washington and New 
York.  He was hopeful that discussion of Egyptian elections 
would not overshadow Nazif's economic reform accomplishments, 
but expressed confidence that Nazif could skillfully address 
any political questions he faced. 
 
8.  (C) While in Washington, Gabr plans to seek high-level 
USG participation in the June 3-5 conference - "Egypt and the 
United States: Partnership in a Changing World" -  sponsored 
by his think tank, Egypt's International Economic Forum 
(EIEF).  He is frustrated that his efforts in Washington in 
April did not generate any commitments from senior officials. 
 He said that he had been leaning toward postponing the 
conference for a second time, but that his Washington partner 
in organizing the conference had urged him to hold off until 
he (Gabr) makes the rounds in Washington one more time. 
Asked to be precise about the level of participation he would 
require for the conference to go forward, he replied 
"Secretary Rice or Deputy Secretary Zoellick." 
 
 
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State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. 
 
GRAY