US embassy cable - 05BRATISLAVA365

UNCLAS  BRATISLAVA 000365 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PHUM, ECON, LO 
SUBJECT: GROWING OPTIMISM BUT LITTLE POLITICAL INSPIRATION 
AMONG SLOVAK VOTERS 
 
 
1. (U) Summary. The Institute for Public Affairs' (IVO) 2004 
annual Summary Report on Slovakia shows growing public 
optimism about the direction Slovakia is taking, increased 
apathy toward high-level corruption, and increasing 
acceptance of economic reforms.  Slovak parties are becoming 
more similar, and with parliamentary elections a bit more 
than a year away, they are searching for ways to distinguish 
themselves.  End summary. 
 
Weakening Pessimism Bodes Well For Reformers 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) According to the report's author, Olga Gyarfasova, 
Slovak pessimism is a long-held and well-documented cultural 
trait.  Nonetheless, in 2004, 46 percent of Slovaks surveyed 
said the state is going in the right direction, while 48 
percent said it was heading in the wrong direction.  This 
was a tremendous improvement over 2003, when 29 percent said 
Slovakia was heading in the right direction, and 66 percent 
said Slovakia was heading in the wrong direction.  Optimism 
is strongest among the young, more educated, city dwellers, 
and businesspeople.  Sixty percent of respondents in 2003 
said they could not think of a single positive step by the 
governing coalition; this dropped to 40 percent in 2004. 
 
3. (SBU) Gyarfasova credited the government program of 
economic reforms in part for the rise in optimism.  EU 
accession, the influx of large and visible investments 
outside of the Bratislava region, lower unemployment, higher 
real wages, and having "survived" the early economic reforms 
have contributed to lower pessimism.  Nonetheless, large 
regional disparities remain and residents of eastern 
Slovakia perceive that they are being cheated.  In the two 
eastern regions, 91 and 92 percent of respondents said their 
chances for material improvement are worse than in other 
regions.  The 2005 Government study on the socio-economic 
disparity of the regions showed that unemployment in the 
Bratislava region is 8 percent, Kosice 24 percent, and 
Presov 22 percent.  Average monthly salaries vary widely by 
region as well: 20,168 SKK in the Bratislava region, 14,630 
SKK in Kosice, and 11,829 in Presov. (Exchange rate is 
currently 30.2 SKK to 1 USD.) 
 
What Does it Mean for 2006 Parliamentary Elections? 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
4.  (U) In 2002, voters went to the polls in support of, or 
in opposition to, Slovakia's "rejoining Europe" by 
continuing vigorous post-communism reforms and entering NATO 
and the European Union.  The public is likely to be more 
apathetic before the 2006 elections; the stakes are viewed 
as lower and party differences less stark than in 2002. 
Gyarfasova predicts lower voter turnout, and other analysts 
agree.  SMK politicians have told us Hungarian voters are 
dissatisfied at the slow economic benefits of reforms; they 
won't vote for other parties, but may not vote at all.  The 
main challenge for all parties will be to get their 
supporters to the polls. 
 
5. (SBU) The IVO polling data showed Slovak voters are 
becoming more apathetic about high-level corruption.  Media 
reports create a culture of permanent scandal, Gyarfasova 
said.  Citizens consider political corruption as normal and 
do not punish corrupt politicians at the polls.  This 
tendency benefits the incumbent parties (which does not 
imply that they are any more or less corrupt than opposition 
parties). 
 
6. (SBU) The three largest parties in parliament--SDKU, 
Smer, and HZDS--are currently developing platforms for the 
2006 elections, each trying to distinguish itself.  With EU 
directives driving a good part of the domestic agenda, there 
is little room for a complete overhaul.  Even with the 
strong social rhetoric of Robert Fico, it would be difficult 
for a Smer-led government to dramatically reverse the 
reforms or change Slovakia's participation in Euro-Atlantic 
institutions.  Gyarfasova speculated that the most anti- 
reform government possible after 2006 would be a Smer-HZDS 
coalition.  However, she warned this is highly hypothetical. 
Important personalities in HZDS prefer aligning with a 
center-right government, which is consistent with their 
warming to SDKU.  A center-right government that includes 
HZDS would necessarily have a more liberal direction, but 
Gyarfasova could not imagine any Slovak government that 
would roll back the major reforms. 
 
7. (U) SDKU has raised the possibility of making the EU 
Lisbon Agenda central to their 2006 party platform.  They 
are considering advancing a "knowledge economy" agenda, 
warning against Slovakia supplying only relatively cheap 
European industrial labor.  The smaller parliamentary 
political parties have clear ideological priorities and are 
 
unlikely to revise them before 2006.  The Christian 
Democratic Movement (KDH) party triumphs social 
conservatism, the Hungarian Coalition Party (SMK) promotes 
the interests of this ethnic minority, the Communists (KSS) 
are a fading remnant of the past, and the Slovak Nationalist 
Party (SNS) promotes isolationism and opposes political 
influence by minorities.  The liberal social agenda of the 
party Alliance for a New Citizen (ANO) is likely to 
disappear, as polling numbers remain below the five percent 
threshold to enter parliament. 
 
Comment 
------- 
8. (SBU) At present, the political parties are keeping their 
options for future coalition partnerships open.  They are 
brainstorming their platforms, and we expect a contentious 
campaign.  There may be an element of anti-Americanism, 
particularly Smer's criticism of the Dzurinda government's 
support for the Iraq war.  Polls are not good predictors of 
election outcomes in Slovakia, and we are still far away 
from election day.  It remains to be seen whether the level 
of optimism will increase enough in the coming year to give 
the current government a third term. 
 
THAYER 
 
 
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