US embassy cable - 05LAGOS706

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000706 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
 
STATE FOR AF/W 
STATE FOR DS/IP/AF 
STATE FOR INR/AA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/12/2015 
TAGS: NI, PGOV, PHUM, PREL 
SUBJECT: BABANGIDA INSIDER FEARS OBASANJO WILL BAR HIS MAN 
 
 
Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for Reasons 1.4 (D & E) 
 
1. (S/NF) Summary: During a recent conversation, Professor 
Ukandi Damachi, long time associate and adviser to former 
head of state Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida (IBB), asserted 
Obasanjo may be considering a revolutionary thrust -- banning 
anyone who has held the office of governor or higher from the 
2007 election.  The prohibition would shackle former Heads of 
State Babangida and Buhari as well as current Vice President 
Atiku.  Damachi claimed a position paper endorsing the ban 
was circulating within the inner sanctum of the Presidency 
and the ongoing National Political Reform Conference was the 
likely vehicle to disseminate the document when the 
Presidency feels the time is right.  Babangida was incensed 
by this potentiality.  Damachi feared his man might move 
against Obasanjo should the Presidency try to advance this 
proposal.  End Summary. 
 
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Obasanjo Allegedly Plans To Ban Former Office-Holders 
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2. (S/NF) During a late April conversation, Professor Ukandi 
Damachi told Consul General there is a close-hold paper 
circulating within the Presidency to ban anyone who has ever 
held state-wide or national office from holding a similar or 
higher office again.  Damachi claimed to have heard about the 
document from two independent sources: 1) a journalist with a 
source within the Presidency and 2) the head of a GON agency 
who has a well-established relationship with Obasanjo but has 
been a long-time Damachi friend. 
 
3. (S/NF) Damachi believed the President's men would like to 
introduce this measure during the National Political Reform 
Conference.  Damachi acknowledged the ban ran counter to the 
draft constitutional amendment for a two year extension of 
the presidential term of office published by some of 
Obasanjo's opportunistic minions such as Special Advisor on 
Political Affairs Jerry Gana.  In this vein, Damachi thought 
the Presidency was operating on parallel tracks.  On one 
side, Obasanjo's people were seeking an avenue to keep 
Obasanjo in office beyond 2007 -- thus, the late introduction 
of the "draft constitution" that would amend his term in 
office from 2007 to 2009.  If unable to muster support for 
his prolongation of office, then Obasanjo will unveil the 
comprehensive ban.  Damachi speculated that Obasanjo's 
mind-set was, "If I can't have it, none of you rascals will 
have it." 
 
4. (S/NF) When appraised of this potential development, 
Babangida grew uncharacteristically volcanic, Damachi 
stressed.  Regarding the presidential race, the usually 
self-malleable Babangida has already crossed his Rubicon. 
There was no turning back, even for someone as adaptive as 
Babangida, Damachi proffered.  Babangida suggested he would 
cause serious trouble for Obasanjo and his ability to rule if 
such a ban was attempted.  Damachi contended IBB has been a 
steadying influence with the military, using his own funds to 
calm a disgruntled officer corps.  IBB did not want a coup to 
derail his hoped-for presidential ascension in 2007.  If his 
election were no longer in the cards, Babangida would 
withdraw his brake from the military.  Moreover, Damachi 
thought, Babangida might even swallow his pride and seek to 
join league with Atiku and perhaps forget his animus for 
former head of state Buhari to see how best to remove 
Obasanjo. 
 
 
5. (S/NF) Comment: Professor Damachi is one of Nigeria's most 
industrious information-peddlers.  His record is a mixed bag. 
 He has trafficked in both accurate and misleading 
information.  Right now, we cannot determine whether this 
report is true.  We tend to doubt it, however Damachi 
obviously gives it more credence than we do.  Moreover, if 
Damachi has wind of a story, we can assume it has passed from 
his lips to Babangida's ears.  Almost as important as whether 
the reported proposal is true is the fact that, in this 
turbid political environment, such a move is plausible.  Just 
as the proposed constitutional amendment to extend Obasanjo's 
term has now been squeezed into the discussion at the 
Political Reform Conference, the introduction of the ban on 
politicians is not unimaginable.  The ban would better enable 
Obasanjo to hand-pick a successor as well as to influence the 
gubernatorial elections.  In the Nigerian parlance, this 
would be the best way to ensure your influence and relevance 
beyond 2007.  However, if such a measure is proposed, it 
would provoke strenuous debate and cause political tensions 
to quickly spike. 
BROWNE