US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI2135

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002135 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/12/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PREL, TW 
SUBJECT: MA YING-JEOU FORESEES CROSS-PARTY RECONCILIATION 
 
REF: A. TAIPEI 02114 
 
     B. TAIPEI 02063 
     C. TAIPEI 02066 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  In a May 10 meeting with the AIT Director, 
Taipei City Mayor Ma Ying-jeou said he was confident that 
President Chen Shui-bian's recent attacks on Pan-Blue leaders 
were merely pre-National Assembly (NA) election rhetoric and 
that Chen would tack back to the center afterward.  Ma also 
said he was confident the Legislative Yuan (LY) would enact 
implementing legislation in time for the NA to convene in 
late May/early June.  Ma asserted that, even if the LY did 
not, the NA would be able to write its own rules in order to 
convene and pass the set of constitutional reforms passed 
last August by the LY.  Ma believed that the adoption of the 
proposed constitutional amendments would bring more stability 
to the Taiwan political process.  He noted that the race for 
KMT Chairman was currently "very tight," and that he wanted 
the position in order to bring much needed reforms to his 
party.  End Summary. 
 
Chen Shui-bian's China Fever 
---------------------------- 
 
2. (C) In a May 10 meeting with the AIT Director, Taipei City 
Mayor Ma Ying-jeou characterized President Chen Shui-bian's 
recent attacks on Pan-Blue leaders (Ref A) as an effort to 
retake the political agenda in the lead up to the May 14 
National Assembly (NA) election.  Ma said he is confident 
that after the NA election Chen will tack back to the center 
on cross-party reconciliation and moderate his criticism of 
opposition party leaders.  Pointing out that the KMT supports 
constitutional amendments to be debated by the National 
Assembly, Ma dismissed as "totally illogical" Chen's 
accusation that the PRC is using the KMT and People First 
Party (PFP) visits to Mainland China to undermine the DPP's 
campaign for constitutional revision. 
 
Constitutional Reform and Referendum 
------------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) Ma also told the AIT Director that he is not worried 
that the LY has not yet passed the "exercise of power" act 
authorizing the NA to convene.  Ma said that there is still 
time for the LY to debate the issue and pass legislation to 
meet the constitutional requirement that the NA convene 
within ten days of the election.  According to Ma, although 
the outcome of the election will be known by May 15, the 
election result would not be official until the Central 
Election Commission (CEC) certified it one week later.  So 
the deadline for the NA to convene is June 1.  Moreover, Ma 
pointed out that the "ROC" Constitution endows the NA, once 
the public has elected its members, with the power to write 
its own rules.  If the NA had to make its rules, Ma noted 
that he was confident the NA members would decide on a simple 
majority rather than three-fourths as the threshold for 
ratification of the proposed constitutional amendments. 
 
4. (C) Echoing the assessment provided to the AIT Director in 
a separate April 20 meeting with KMT Chairman Lien Chan, Ma 
asserted that the adoption of the draft constitutional 
amendments would bring more stability to the Taiwan political 
process by making it more difficult to hold a referendum (Ref 
B and C).  Ma said the amended constitution will introduce an 
additional obstacle to the constitutional revision process -- 
in addition to requiring three-fourths of the LY to approve 
putting a constitutional revision question to a referendum, 
the new process will then require fifty percent (8 million) 
of all eligible voters (currently 16.5 million) to cast 
ballots to approve the revision.  Currently, only a simple 
majority of the NA, with no minimum public voting requirement 
for NA election, is required to confirm LY-passed revisions. 
Ma said that these criteria would render it "impossible" to 
pass any revision to the constitution on sensitive subjects. 
 
KMT Chairman Race 
----------------- 
 
5. (C) Ma then told the Director that he is currently in a 
"very tight race" against LY President Wang Jin-pyng for the 
KMT Chairmanship.  Ma refrained from criticizing his opponent 
but did complain that Wang's campaign was telling KMT members 
to vote for Wang in order to "save" Ma as the KMT candidate 
for 2008 presidential election.  Ma said that he wanted to 
bring desperately needed reforms to his party, specifically 
citing that the KMT needs to resolve the party asset issue, 
to downsize the over-staffed organization, and to continue 
the democratization process within the party.  Ma warned that 
these problems would become a drag on the party in future 
elections.  He lamented that the KMT's stronger than expected 
performance in the December 2004 LY election had caused many 
KMT officials to forget about the need for reform.  He said 
he would not be disadvantaged by the KMT Central Standing 
Committee decision to allow party members who did not pay 
membership fees to vote in the party Chairman election. 
 
Comment: A Leader or a Media Creation 
------------------------------------- 
 
6. (C) Ma Ying-jeou said relatively little new during this 
hour-long lunch meeting.  The process of scheduling the lunch 
was almost more informative than the event itself.  The lunch 
appears to have been the brain child of KMT Legislator Su 
Chi, a schoolmate of Ma, who has been trying to raise his own 
profile with both Ma and the AIT Director by asserting 
himself as an intermediary.  Ma is well-known for being 
over-scheduled by his staff, and AIT experienced it first 
hand in the course of arranging this meeting.  Between March 
28 when the Mayor's office first contacted AIT for a meeting 
and May 10, Ma's office changed the meeting time, date, and 
venue at least three times.  At one point, Ma's newly 
appointed International Affairs Executive Director Raymond 
Wang (former Honolulu TECRO Representative) telephoned AIT to 
apologize for the numerous scheduling changes and explained 
that the heated KMT Chairman race imposed a demanding 
schedule on Ma. 
 
7. (C) Ma did not appear to be engaged in any stage of the 
arrangements for our meeting, from scheduling to attendance 
to the substance of the discussion.  Increasingly, observers 
inside and outside of the KMT have noted to AIT that Ma has 
shown clear leadership shortcomings when faced with 
challenges, be they the 2004 Pan-Blue street demonstrations 
or attempts by party heavyweights to derail Ma's Chairmanship 
bid.  One frequent criticism is Ma's inability to find good 
advice.  Most of Ma's inner circle is made up of former 
academics and diplomats, hardly the kind of political 
operators that are needed to succeed in Taiwan's rough and 
tumble political arena. 
PAAL