US embassy cable - 05CAIRO3617

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 003617 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC STAFF FOR ABRAMS/POUNDS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, EG 
SUBJECT: EGYPT: CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT CHANGED, PASSED 
 
REF: A. CAIRO 3495 (NOTAL) 
 
     B. CAIRO 3424 (NOTAL) 
     C. CAIRO 2536 
 
Classified by ECPO Counselor John Desrocher for reasons 1.4 
(b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) Egypt's parliament passed on May 10 an amendment to 
Article 76 of the constitution, allowing for the country's 
first direct, competitive presidential elections in its 
history.  Before the amendment takes effect, it must be put 
to a national referendum, expected in late May.  As reported 
ref A, the proposal fleshed out by the legislative affairs 
committee of the People's Assembly received a frosty 
reception from opposition figures and independent 
commentators, who asserted that the qualification formula 
spelled out for candidates posed insurmountable obstacles.  A 
late-breaking downward revision of the number of required 
endorsements was touted as a "major concession" by leading 
ruling party officers but has been dismissed as meaningless 
by key opposition figures.  The assessment we set forth in 
ref A holds:  The bar has been set high for independents who 
wish to compete in future presidential elections.  For 
political parties, the bar is surmountable, but only if this 
fall's legislative elections result in a much more diverse 
and independently-minded parliament.  End summary. 
 
2. (C) The People's Assembly (PA) approved on May 10 the 
proposed amendment to Article 76 of the Egyptian Constitution 
to stipulate the election of the president in a direct, 
competitive election (reftels).  Of the 454 members, 405 
voted in favor.  In a surprising development, NDP old guard 
stalwart Hussein Mugawwar inserted an amendment to the draft 
bill, reducing the total number of endorsements required for 
an independent to qualify as a candidate from 300 to 250. 
The original draft had stipulated that of 300 required 
endorsements from elected legislature members, at least 65 
must come from the People's Assembly, 25 from the Shura 
Council, and 10 from each of at least 14 out of 26 provincial 
assemblies.  Mugawwar's amendment revised the total number 
required to 250, but the 65-25-10 formula remained intact. 
The amendment will not take effect until it is approved by a 
public referendum, expected to take place in late May. 
 
3. (C) The figure of 250 was apparently the ruling National 
Democratic Party's fallback position from its "opening bid" 
of 300.  Appearing on television on the evening of May 10, 
senior NDP figures including Safwat Sherif, PA speaker Fathy 
Surour, and Mohammed Kamal asserted that the amendment, as 
passed, was "extremely fair."  They described the revision of 
the number of required endorsements down to 250 as a major 
concession and a gesture of the GOE's good will and 
commitment to democracy. 
 
4. (C) Opposition figures, who have been directing a 
continuous wave of scathing criticism since the outlines of 
the amendment emerged late last week, were unimpressed by 
this concession.  Opposition Wafd Party figure Amr Okasha 
argued in the party's daily newspaper that the move "made no 
difference" and that the hurdles set out for both 
independents and parties to compete for the presidency 
remained too high.  Abul Ela Madi of the proposed centrist 
Islamist Wasat Party (repeatedly denied recognition by the 
GOE) and the Nasserist journalist Abdel Halim Qandil (also 
linked to the Kifaya protest movement) each appeared on 
Arabic satellite channels on the evening of May 10 to 
denounce the amendment and affirm that the revision of the 
requirement to 250 did not change their minds.  The Kifaya 
("Enough") protest movement called on May 10 on Egyptians to 
boycott the presidential polls. 
 
5. (C) No changes were made in the final approved bill to the 
rules governing presidential candidates nominated by parties. 
 A party will be allowed to nominate a candidate provided it 
has been in existence for five continuous years and secured 
at least five percent of the elected seats in each of the 
People's Assembly and the Shura Council.  (No opposition 
party currently holds five percent of the seats in either 
body.)  A grandfather clause in effect this year only allows 
any of the 14 licensed and operating opposition parties to 
field candidates. 
 
6. (C) So far, excepting a few fringe candidates, only the 
leftist Tagammu' Party's Khalid Mohieldin and the Ghad 
Party's Ayman Nour have expressed an intent to compete in the 
race.  However, the octogenarian Mohieldin had previously 
threatened to drop out in protest of the stringent terms for 
qualification imposed by the amendment.  As for Ayman Nour, 
he is facing a criminal forgery trial and accuses the NDP of 
engineering a sustained campaign of harassment and 
intimidation targeting himself, his party, and supporters. 
 
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Comment 
 
7. (C) Our sense is that the downward revision, from 300 to 
250, was a symbolic concession that has not changed the 
calculus of either the ruling NDP or the various critics and 
opponents of the amendment.  The NDP appears determined to 
maintain a formula that essentially excludes Islamists (who 
would have little hope of securing as many as 65 PA 
endorsements) and is also likely to keep political parties in 
check.  As discussed reftels, prospects for a seriously 
competed presidential election this year are meagre, as the 
nearly dysfunctional opposition parties have no strong 
candidates to field.  (The only theoretical exception would 
be Ayman Nour, but as noted he is facing a host of legal and 
organizational woes.)  For the future, the amendment to 
Article 76 will only prove to have opened the door for 
seriously competed presidential elections if this fall's 
legislative elections result in a much more diverse and 
independently-minded parliament.  End comment. 
 
 
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GRAY