US embassy cable - 05ANKARA2726

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 002726 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, TU, OSCE, PKK 
SUBJECT: TURKEY ON EDGE OVER EXPECTED EUROPEAN COURT OF 
HUMAN RIGHTS CALL FOR RETRIAL OF PKK LEADER OCALAN 
 
REF: ANKARA 2525 
 
(U) Classified by Ambassador Eric S. Edelman; reasons 1.4 b 
and d. 
 
1. (C) Summary: The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) is 
expected to announce May 12 that Abdullah Ocalan, leader of 
the terrorist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) did not receive a 
fair trial in 1999 and is entitled to a retrial.  Nationalism 
is always volatile in Turkey, and an Ocalan retrial could 
spark conflict between nationalists and Kurdish activists. 
Ruling AK Party (AKP) leaders, who have no discernible 
strategy for dealing with nationalism or the Kurdish issue, 
have urged calm, but opposition leaders have made provocative 
statements.  Members of a party close to the PKK hold foolish 
hopes that a retrial could lead to a resolution of the 
Kurdish issue.  End Summary. 
 
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ECHR Expected to Call for Retrial 
--------------------------------- 
 
2. (U) As reported reftel, the ECHR Grand Chamber will 
announce May 12 its final ruling in Ocalan's appeal of his 
1999 conviction.  The Grand Chamber is expected to uphold the 
2003 ruling of a lower ECHR court that Ocalan did not receive 
a fair trial.  Observers also expect the ECHR to rule that 
Ocalan is entitled to a retrial in a Turkish court.  Such a 
decision would not automatically lead to a new trial -- a 
three-judge Turkish high penal court would vote on whether to 
approve a retrial application.  However, our contacts say a 
retrial is likely. 
 
3. (C) An ECHR verdict in favor of a retrial would come in 
the context of always volatile, but now sharper, nationalism 
in Turkey, the most explicit examples of which are recent 
disturbances in the wake of an alleged attempt by a group of 
Kurdish children to burn a Turkish flag.  A retrial could 
become a catalyst for clashes between nationalists and 
Kurdish activists. 
 
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AKP, Opposition Send Mixed Signals 
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4. (U) Leaders from the ruling AKP, which has no discernible 
strategy for dealing with nationalism or the Kurdish 
question, have made statements intended to calm public 
opinion and warn against exploiting a retrial for political 
gain.  FM Gul assured the public May 10 that Ocalan will be 
re-convicted, even if he is retried 100 times.  Justice 
Minister Cicek said the retrial is a matter for the 
judiciary, not politicians, and urged Deniz Baykal, leader of 
the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), to adopt a 
"responsible" approach to the issue. 
 
5. (U) Baykal, however, seems disinclined to take the advice. 
 He told CHP MPs that "nobody should expect us to find it 
natural" if the ECHR rules that Ocalan's trial was unfair. 
He charged that such a decision would "offend 70 million 
people in Turkey."  Members of the Nationalist Movement Party 
(MHP) have also warned that a retrial would have negative 
consequences. 
 
6. (C) We discussed the issue with leaders of the pro-Kurdish 
Democratic Peoples' Party (DEHAP), which is close to the PKK. 
 DEHAP President Tuncer Bakirhan told us DEHAP will issue a 
two-pronged announcement May 12 after the ECHR issues its 
ruling;  the party will call on the PKK to avoid any 
offensives, and urge the GOT not to take any initiatives that 
would fuel nationalism and anti-Kurdish sentiment. 
 
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Kurdish Party: Retrial An "Opportunity" 
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7. (C) Both Bakirhan and Nazmi Gur, DEHAP foreign affairs 
advisor, averred to us that the Kurdish community views an 
Ocalan retrial as an "opportunity" to improve relations with 
the Turkish State.  They share the widely held assumption 
that Ocalan will be re-convicted and given the same sentence 
(Ocalan was sentenced to death in 1999, but his punishment 
was converted to life imprisonment after Turkey abolished the 
death penalty).  However, wrapped in wishful thinking, they 
believe that a new, fair trial for the terrorist leader could 
lead to a softening of the State's approach to the PKK. 
 
8. (C) Bakirhan asserted a new trial would provide Ocalan 
with a platform to explain to the Turkish public what kinds 
of cultural and political freedoms Kurds are seeking.  If the 
trial is handled fairly and openly, and Ocalan is permitted 
to speak freely, Bakirhan believes, Ocalan could convince the 
Turkish State and public that Kurdish identity is not a 
threat to national unity.  Gur even suggested that a retrial 
could lead to a decision by the GOT to offer a general 
amnesty to PKK militants. 
 
9. (C) Bakirhan opined that problems will arise only if the 
GOT declares that the retrial is being held under pressure by 
an EU seeking to divide and weaken Turkey.  He said such an 
approach would lead to rising anti-Western nationalism, which 
in turn would stoke Kurdish nationalism.  He said he does not 
expect the GOT to take such an approach, because doing so 
would severely undermine Turkey's EU candidacy. 
 
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Comment 
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10. (C) Our DEHAP contacts are way off base in imagining that 
a retrial could lead to a resolution of the PKK conflict. 
Indeed, Ocalan is guaranteed to offend both the Turkish State 
and the populace at large with his badly distilled brew of 
neo-Marxist-Leninist jargon and stale, third-world 
ideological ramblings. 
 
11. (C) We can only hope that a new trial will not make 
matters worse.  Apart from CHP and MHP, most political 
leaders so far seem to share that hope.  But if it is true 
that the Kurdish community holds high expectations for the 
consequences of a retrial, they are likely to be bitterly 
disappointed.  CHP Chairman Baykal's comments indicate that 
if Kurds take to the streets to express their frustrations, 
the nationalists will be there to confront them. 
EDELMAN