US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI2127

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002127 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, CH, TW, Cross Strait Politics 
SUBJECT: TAIWAN CONCERNED OVER PRC-JAPAN FRICTIONS 
 
REF: 2004 TAIPEI 3742 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: Taipei remains optimistic over current trends 
in Japan-Taiwan relations, but officials express concern that 
Beijing may demand concessions over Taiwan as a condition to 
reducing short-term frictions between Tokyo and Beijing. 
Taiwan officials note that Beijing has shifted the focus of 
its demands on Japan in recent weeks from history to Taiwan. 
Taipei fears that Tokyo may be pressured to make concessions 
over its position on Taiwan participation in the World Health 
Organization (WHO) or plans to grant permanent visa-free 
status to Taiwan travelers.  Nevertheless, recent statements 
by the Japanese Foreign Minister reaffirming Taiwan's 
inclusion in the scope of the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty have 
reassured Taipei that Japan will be increasingly willing to 
resist PRC pressure and therefore longer term trends in 
Japan-Taiwan relations will remain positive.  Taiwan 
officials are accelerating efforts to enhance trilateral 
communications among the U.S., Taiwan, and Japan, especially 
on security policy.  End Summary. 
 
When Elephants Fight... 
----------------------- 
 
2. (C) Officials in Taipei expect a further long-term 
deterioration in Sino-Japanese relations and are reviewing 
Taiwan's place in what they expect to be a new, and much less 
stable, strategic environment.  Lo Fu-chuan, Chairman of the 
quasi-official Association for East Asian Relations (EARA) 
and former Representative to Tokyo, asserted that both 
Beijing and Tokyo are likely to continue to foster a level of 
tension in the Sino-Japanese relationship in order to advance 
both governments' respective domestic political agendas.  Lo 
assessed that the Koizumi government is intentionally 
encouraging the public to see China as a threat in order to 
secure a number of political objectives, including expanding 
Japan's international role, revising Article Nine of the 
constitution, and upgrading Taiwan's defense capabilities. 
Lo noted that this trend, combined with Beijing's long term 
policy of encouraging anti-Japanese sentiments for domestic 
political consumption, has added a destabilizing new dynamic 
to regional security. 
 
3. (C) National Security Council (NSC) Senior Advisor for 
Asian Affairs Lin Cheng-wei offered a similar assessment, but 
added that the two sides have realized they may have both 
overplayed their hands in recent weeks and are looking to 
cool tensions without sacrificing core domestic political 
interests.  For Japan, he continued, it will be difficult to 
give Beijing concessions over the East China Sea gas 
exploration, Yasukuni Shrine, history, or textbooks without 
offending key constituencies within the ruling Liberal 
Democratic Party (LDP).  In this context, Lin told AIT that 
Taipei is concerned that the PRC focus has shifted from 
history to Taiwan in its high-level interactions with Tokyo 
in the wake of the April anti-Japanese demonstrations, and 
this could encourage Tokyo to view a Taiwan concession as an 
easy way out. 
 
4. (C) Lin hypothesized that Japan might be tempted to offer 
a change in Japan's position on Taipei's bid to participate 
in the World Health Organization (WHO) as a gesture to 
Beijing.  EARA's Lo told AIT that Japanese officials did not 
offer any substantive response during Lo's mid-April visit to 
Tokyo to press for Japanese support.  Lo explained that 
Taipei hopes that Japan will encourage other Asian nations 
early to support Taiwan WHO participation, noting that Japan 
did not make its position known last year until the eve of 
the World Health Assembly (WHA) meeting.  Thus far, however, 
Tokyo has not revealed its hand. 
 
Visa-Free Travel in Question? 
----------------------------- 
 
5. (C) The NSC's Lin expressed concern that recent Japan-PRC 
frictions may also delay efforts to grant Taiwan visitors to 
Japan permanent visa-free travel privileges.  Lin asserted 
that LDP heavyweight Nikai Toshihiro has cited tensions with 
Beijing to slow the process of granting permanent visa-free 
status to Taiwan visitors.  Tokyo has granted Taiwan visitors 
limited visa-free travel for the period of the Aichi Expo as 
a first step towards fully eliminating visa restrictions for 
Taiwan tourists. 
 
6. (C) EARA's Lo downplayed the PRC angle over the visa 
issue, instead blaming Presidential Office Secretary General 
Yu Shyi-kun's recent "guerrilla diplomacy" for upsetting 
plans for lifting visa restrictions.  Lo explained that Tokyo 
and Taipei have an informal agreement that Taiwan will give 
the Japanese Foreign Ministry 10 days notice before any 
senior Taiwan official arrives in Tokyo without a visa.  Yu 
and his aides, however, angered Japanese Foreign Ministry 
officials when Yu showed up without notification in April to 
meet with Japanese political leaders.  Lo said the flap was 
the result of "arrogant and immature" Yu advisors who were 
seeking to prove a point by visiting without prior NSC, MOFA, 
or TECRO Tokyo coordination.  (Comment: Yu aides confirm that 
the visit was arranged by former Executive Yuan (EY) 
Secretary General Arthur Iap.  For the past several years, 
 
SIPDIS 
Iap has attempted to wrest control of Japan policy from NSC 
Secretary General Chiou I-jen, Reftel). 
 
SIPDIS 
 
Ripples in an Otherwise Positive Trend 
-------------------------------------- 
 
7. (C) Concern over the immediate fallout from recent 
PRC-Japan tensions have not clouded the otherwise optimistic 
outlook in Taipei over longer-term trends in the Japan-Taiwan 
relationship.  The NSC's Lin said that Foreign Minister 
Machimura Nobutaka's recent affirmation that the Taiwan 
Strait has always fallen within the boundaries of the 
U.S.-Japan Security Treaty encouraged Taipei that Japan may 
be willing to resist PRC pressure over Taiwan.  Taiwan 
officials are also encouraged by signs that Japan, even the 
traditionally conservative Foreign Ministry, is taking a more 
assertive stance with Beijing over Taiwan issues.  Mainland 
Affairs Council (MAC) Chief Secretary Jan Jyh-horng told AIT 
that PRC Taiwan Affairs Office Deputy Director Sun Yafu 
recently complained to Taiwan contacts that Japanese Vice 
Foreign Minister Yachi Shotaro was much tougher in his 
February meeting with Sun over the Anti-Secession Law (ASL) 
than American officials were with TAO officials during 
January talks in Washington. 
 
Taipei Looks U.S.-Taiwan-Japan Strategic Dialogue 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
8. (C) Taipei is looking to leverage warming U.S.-Japan 
relations by enhancing trilateral "Track Two" and 
"One-and-a-Half" dialogue with Washington and Taipei.  Former 
MAC Vice Chairman Alexander Huang told AIT that his think 
tank has been recently commissioned by the NSC to recreate a 
low-profile trilateral Track Two process similar to the one 
that existed in the late 1990s involving former Deputy 
Secretary of State Armitage and EAP A/S Kelly.  MOFA North 
 
SIPDIS 
American Affairs Director General Victor Chin said that USG 
officials in Tokyo and Washington will be invited to 
participate in the closed door meetings.  The Taiwan NSC also 
recently tasked TECRO Offices in Tokyo and Washington to 
increase coordination with each other on security policy and 
to expand contacts with USG Japan specialists and GOJ 
American hands, especially those with cross-Strait expertise. 
 
Comment: Slowly Perhaps Surely 
------------------------------ 
 
9. (C) Most Taiwan Japan policy officials (as distinct from 
their senior political leadership) understand that overt ties 
with Tokyo could endanger Taiwan's equities with the 
Mainland, especially in the current tense atmosphere between 
Japan and Mainland China.  However, the assessment that the 
U.S.-Japan alliance will increasingly focus on balancing 
growing PRC influence is seen as a major strategic 
opportunity for Taipei.  The challenge for Taiwan 
policymakers will be to avoid overplaying Taipei's hand. 
Missteps like the Yu visit and recent assertion by President 
Chen Shui-bian that Taiwan has provided Japan intelligence on 
PRC submarine movements may be more likely to undermine 
Taiwan's interests than overt bilateral pressure on Tokyo 
from Beijing. 
PAAL