US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI2121

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 TAIPEI 002121 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - 
ROBERT PALLADINO 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW, Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: PRESIDENT CHEN'S WEEKEND TV 
INTERVIEW, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTION 
 
 
1. Summary: As Taiwan dailies continued May 11 to cover 
the aftermath of President Chen Shui-bian's weekend TV 
interview, the focus also fell equally on PFP Chairman 
James Soong's planned meeting with Chinese President Hu 
Jintao Thursday and next Saturday's ad hoc National 
Assembly election.  The centrist "China Times" carried 
the newspaper's latest opinion survey on its front 
page, which showed that President Chen's approval rate 
has dropped from 44 percent in February to 39 percent. 
The popularity rate for KMT Chairman Lien Chan 
following his recent trip to China, however, surged 
from 31 percent in February to 47 percent.  A poll 
conducted by the pro-unification "United Daily News" on 
its second page also showed similar results.  According 
to the "United Daily News" poll, Chen's approval rate 
has plunged to 32 percent, the lowest since he assumed 
office in 2000.  Several newspapers, including the pro- 
independence "Liberty Times," Taiwan's biggest daily 
and a long-time supporter of Chen, all spent their 
first few pages reporting on former President Lee Teng- 
hui's and the Pan-Green camp's criticism of Chen. 
 
2. All the major Chinese-language Taiwan dailies 
carried reports on their inside pages on Soong's 
planned meeting with Hu Thursday.  A page-four news 
story of the "China Times" headlined: "Soong-Hu meeting 
will define the 1992 Consensus," and a page-two news 
story of the "Liberty Times" said: "Tomorrow's Soong-Hu 
meeting will discuss the `1992 Consensus."  Both the 
"Liberty Times" and the "United Daily News" also spent 
a whole page discussing the upcoming ad hoc National 
Assembly election and the "Law Governing the National 
Assembly's Exercise of Power," which is still stuck in 
the Legislative Yuan. 
 
3. In terms of editorials and commentaries, several 
newspapers continued to discuss Chen's remarks made 
during his three-and-a-half hour TV interview over the 
weekend and his flip-flopping attitude.  A "United 
Daily News" editorial said Chen launched strong attacks 
against former President Lee and in the meantime sought 
to redefine his plans to change Taiwan's name and to 
write a new Constitution.  A "United Daily News" 
commentary said Chen's passionate remarks were an 
attempt to resolve his power crisis.  A "Taiwan Daily" 
editorial, on the other hand, said that Chen's expose 
confirmed some previous speculations that the United 
States has indeed intervened in the China trips by KMT 
Chairman Lien and PFP Chairman Soong.  Editorials of 
two limited-circulation, English-language newspapers, 
despite their different political orientations, all 
said that Chen has brought on himself most of the 
problems he is facing now. 
 
4. Two newspaper editorials discussed the disputed ad 
hoc National Assembly election which will be held this 
coming Saturday.  The "Liberty Times" said the election 
would offer Taiwan people a chance to become a normal 
and complete country if the constitutional revision 
concerning the popular right to referendum is passed. 
A "China Times" editorial also sought to clarify 
certain disputed issues concerning the ad hoc National 
Assembly election, saying that the move to include in 
the Constitution people's right to amend the 
constitution does not equal de jure independence.  End 
summary. 
 
1. President Chen's Weekend TV Interview 
 
A) "Chen Shui-bian Launches Harsh Attacks on [Former 
President] Lee Teng-hui and Redefines Name Ratification 
and Constitutional Reform " 
 
The pro-unification "United Daily News" [circulation: 
600,000] commented in its editorial (5/11): 
 
".  To criticize Lee at this time, Chen Shui-bian is 
actually moving towards redefining `Name Ratification 
and Constitutional Reform.'  Chen would like to change 
the national title to "Taiwan" within three years. 
Chen stresses that if he cannot make the change, Lee 
Teng-hui could not do it either even if he were the 
president.  Chen emphasized that  "Name Ratification 
and Constitutional Reform" is not equivalent to 
changing the national title.  In another abrupt turn, 
Chen said that when the national assembly is abolished, 
that is considered Constitutional Reform; When Chen 
added `Taiwan' on the passports and included `Taiwan' 
watermark on IDs, it is Name Ratification.  This is 
Chen Shiu-bian's new theory, `Name Ratification and 
Constitutional Reform' is no longer a "cannot be done 
issue" but it is already done! 
 
"Facing challenges from all sides, Chen Shui-bian at 
this time seems to have started his new strategy.  On 
the one hand, paint an ugly image of Lee Teng-hui; 
Replace his previous title from `Father of Taiwan' and 
`Forefather of Democracy' to `Undisciplined Old 
Senile.'  On the other hand, redefine `Name 
Ratification and Constitutional Reform.'  Under the new 
definition, Chen Shui-bian will no longer be the 
betrayer to `Name Ratification and Constitutional 
Reform,' but become an outstanding leader to make `Name 
Ratification and Constitutional Reform' a dream come 
true! ." 
 
B) "A-Bian's Passionate Act: to Counteract the Power 
Crisis" 
 
Journalist Chen Ming-feng observed in the "United 
Notes" column of the pro-unification "United Daily 
News" [circulation: 600,000] (5/11): 
 
".  The public criticized President Chen for his fickle 
and unpredictable behavior.  It is a matter of fact, 
after the "Bian-Soong" meeting, other than President 
Chen's harsh comment on Lien's China trip, Chen has 
swayed from pro-left to pro-right on the Cross-strait 
issues.  But over time, the public can sympathize and 
understand the atmosphere within the DPP.  In the five 
years since Chen was first elected President, society 
and Chen's motto for People's government and "the third 
path" have not met eye-to-eye.  In fact, they have gone 
awry and many important political issues have become 
slogans to manipulate the voters.  Even though the 
opposing parties cannot deny responsibility, isn't 
President Chen somewhat responsible? 
 
"President Chen opened the door after the "Bian-Soong" 
meeting and their ten-point consensus.  By having Soong 
pass a message during his visit to China, Chen does not 
have to bear alone the accusation of being a traitor or 
becoming too friendly with the communists.  President 
Chen should know very well the reason for his changing 
behavior, perhaps it is a reflection of his defeat in 
the legislative election, or maybe pressure from the 
international situation.  But can the DPP supporters 
understand?  How can they accept that their past 
decisions have been crushed? 
 
"The fact is that since the establishment of the DPP, 
it has experienced many civic-related activities and 
pro-independence events etc, but how much of the 
fundamentalist base is left? How many will ignore 
social and national security to insist on pro-Taiwan 
independence?  There might be some but definitely not 
many.  The queries pouring from within are really about 
President Chen's personal leadership and not only 
limited to Cross-strait issues. 
 
"For Taiwan's interests, the fact is that the President 
leaning towards being neutral gives more opportunity 
for development in cross-Strait relations.  Once the 
two sides of the straits can resume talks, peace and 
economic prosperity will be possible.  Whatever it is, 
President Chen must insist in reconciliation.  The 
President must be able to put away his status and 
communicate with all parties, change his style of 
leadership to regain his credibility in order to 
resolve the crisis." 
 
C) "Pan-Blue Legislators' Attempt to Block the [U.S.] 
Arms Procurement Bill Undoubtedly Proves that Lien and 
Soong Are Mouthpieces and Executors Acting on Behalf of 
China's Interests - President's Expose [at the TV 
Interview] Proves That the United States Has Obtained 
Lien's and Soong's Agreement with Regard to [U.S.] Arms 
Procurement Bill.  Lien and Soong Must Clarify Their 
Positions." 
 
The pro-independence "Taiwan Daily" [circulation: 
150,000] commented in its editorial (5/11): 
 
". President Chen's expose [during his TV interview 
Sunday and Monday] also confirmed some reasonable 
speculations, namely, that the United States has indeed 
interfered in the China visits by [KMT Chairman] Lien 
Chan and [PFP Chairman] James Soong.  Washington has 
obtained Lien's and Soong's agreement with regard to 
[the passage of] the arms procurement bill, and in 
return, it also helped Lien and Soong obtain the Taiwan 
government's endorsement for their China trips.  This 
information has also more or less explained Chen's flip- 
flopping attitude toward the opposition leaders' China 
trips, which has truly upset his supporters. . 
 
"The United States, on the one hand, hopes that both 
sides of the Taiwan Strait will resume dialogue so that 
they will not engage in military conflicts triggered by 
escalating confrontations.  On the other hand, however, 
Washington is concerned that the Pan-Blue camp will 
tilt toward China too much and that would endanger the 
United States' strategic interests.  The United States, 
as a result, conducted crisis management with Lien and 
Soong's China trips and in the meantime used this 
opportunity to seek to resolve the disputed U.S. arms 
procurement bill currently stuck in the Legislative 
Yuan.  Washington's contact with Lien and Soong, as 
stated in Chen's remarks, has already proven that. . 
 
". Taiwan and the United States, which will come to the 
island's rescue whenever there is a conflict in the 
Taiwan Strait, are the reasons for the active expansion 
and modernization of the Chinese military.  Given its 
military strength, China is capable of launching a 
modern war against [Taiwan] and has posed a serious 
threat to the U.S. military's intervention in cross- 
Strait conflicts.  This is a fact already widely 
acknowledged by military security specialists all over 
the world, and everybody is watching and concerned to 
see if Taiwan has the determination or capability of 
defending itself with U.S. assistance. 
 
"Frankly speaking, the answer to this question is 
getting more and more uncertain following Lien and 
Soong's visits to China.  Even the United States, which 
will likely assist Taiwan, has begun to wonder if 
[Lien's and Soong's China trips] will be the beginning 
of Taiwan tilting toward China politically.  The U.S. 
conclusion to this question will significantly affect 
the United States' basic policy toward Taiwan, 
especially in terms of bilateral military cooperation. 
As a result, the U.S. arms procurement bill will, 
without doubt, has become a litmus test [for answering 
this question], which the Pan-Blue camp can no longer 
dodge.  If the Pan-Blue camp attempts to block the arms 
procurement bill again, it will prove that the camp, 
under the leadership of Lien and Soong, is the 
mouthpiece and executor acting on behalf of China's 
interests." 
 
D) "Chen's Isolation Is His Own Doing" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" 
[circulation: 30,000] noted in its editorial (5/11): 
 
". As a national leader, Chen should not only have long- 
term goals and a comprehensive strategy for achieving 
them, he should also consult with nation in the 
decision-making process.  But he seems to think he can 
see more clearly than others and can afford to ignore 
the people.  We do not object to Chen seeking to 
improve ties with China, but he cannot be allowed to 
play fast and loose with Taiwan's security, or endanger 
Taiwan's sovereignty and the power of the people. 
 
"The crisis that the present administration faces has 
been precipitated by Chen's increasingly domineering 
manner.  He has now attacked former president Lee and 
the TSU simply to bolster his own policies - seemingly 
betraying those who have supported him and risking a 
split within the pan-green camp.  Chen has brought most 
of these problems on himself.  He should take the 
advice of former DPP chairman Lin Yi-hsiung and take a 
good hard look at himself." 
 
E) "Chen May Pay a High Price for Unsubstantiated 
Charges" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language 
"China Post" [circulation: 30,000] editorialized 
(5/11): 
 
". Chen's weekend TV interview was aimed at winning 
back hard-line independence supporters, who are 
reportedly planning to vote in the coming poll for his 
once staunch ally, the far-left Taiwan Solidarity Union 
(TSU), in retaliation for the president's mishandling 
of the mainland visits by Lien and Soong - trips they 
worry will cause Taiwan to lean toward China that in 
turn may undercut their political cause. . 
 
"Chen's fierce attacks on his opponents over the 
weekend, together with his impassioned talk of 
defending his policy, has attained an immediate effect 
of drawing attention away from a damaging internal 
party rebellion against him over his policy flip-flops. 
But it remains to be seen whether his remarks and moves 
to please the independence fundamentalists will be able 
to help his party to ward off widely predicted losses 
in the election. 
 
"One thing, however, seems certain.  That is Chen will 
have to pay a high price for his unsubstantiated 
charges against Soong and Lien. . Besides, Chen's open 
admission that the proposed referendum article is a 
ground rule for pursuing formal independence is likely 
to remind Beijing that the Taiwan leader has not 
lessened his push for a separate Taiwan republic 
because of its recent enactment of an anti-secession 
law. 
 
"More fundamentally, Chen by fabricating issues without 
the backing of concrete evidence, once again has proved 
to the public that their president is a politician who 
might be willing to sacrifice social harmony or risk 
national security if he can do so to win elections. 
 
2. National Assembly Election 
 
A) "The Legislative Yuan Should Quickly Pass the `Law 
Governing the National Assembly's Exercise of Power' to 
Facilitate Constitutional Operations" 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 
800,000] editorialized (5/11): 
 
". Taiwan's current Constitution was created in China 
by the KMT regime and forcefully imposed on the Taiwan 
people.  It is filled with the structure and 
operational logic of the Greater Chinese sentiment and 
also fails to uphold Taiwan's public opinion.  As a 
result, to turn Taiwan into a normal nation through the 
efforts of constitutional amendments or re-writing a 
new constitution has always been a goal that the Taiwan 
people strive for.  Even though the four constitutional 
revisions that these ad hoc National Assembly members, 
[who will be elected this coming Saturday], are tasked 
with may not really be able to achieve such a goal, the 
revision regarding including in the Constitution 
people's right to amend the Constitution will certainly 
hand the power of amending the Constitution to our 
people.  In the future, as long as the route advocating 
Taiwan consciousness and sovereignty wins the support 
of the majority of the Taiwan people, Taiwan can evolve 
into a normal and complete nation via the popular right 
to call for a referendum.  Most importantly, the Taiwan 
people will no longer be cheated by those `self- 
deceptive' slogans of some politicians and can move 
their historical duties forward by themselves.  Just 
because the move to include in the Constitution 
people's right to amend the Constitution will highlight 
Taiwan's sovereignty and show that Taiwan people are 
their own masters rather than slaves or servants of 
China, China regards the move as `de jure independence' 
and intends to block the passage of such a 
constitutional revision by working together with the 
United States and Taiwan's opposition parties. ." 
 
B) "Arguments over the Inclusion into the Constitution 
Popular Right to Referendum and De Jure Independence" 
 
The centrist, pro-status quo "China Times" 
[circulation: 600,000] commented in its editorial 
(5/11): 
 
"The election of the ad hoc National Assembly members 
will be held this coming Saturday, . and its result 
will not only concern whether the proposed package of 
constitutional amendments will be passed, it is in 
reality also a test of the political parties' 
reputations and people's confidence in them. . 
 
". From observations of this wave of Chinese fever 
interwoven with Constitutional amendments, the issues 
which most deserve further discussion and clarification 
are whether writing referendum into the Constitution 
would result in de jure Taiwan independence, and 
whether KMT and PFP's China fever means collaborating 
with the Communists to contain Taiwan and further 
endanger the ensuring of Taiwan's entity. 
 
"Linking writing referendum into the Constitution with 
de jure Taiwan independence is one of the main appeals 
of the Democracy Action Alliance, which participates in 
the ad hoc National Assembly representatives' elections 
and opposes the Constitutional amendment bill. The 
basis of the alliance's discourse is that once the 
Constitutional amendment bill is ratified and passed, 
the National Assembly will exist no more, and in the 
future when there are bills on territory change and 
Constitutional amendment, the bills will be ratified 
via referendum, and this constitutes what 
Constitutional scholars address as the so-called `de 
jure Taiwan independence' problem, and this can result 
in Chinese Communist Party's fierce opposition, and 
will bring Taiwan into a dangerous situation of war. 
 
"The Democracy Action Alliance's discourse opposing the 
Constitutional amendment bill also earns support from 
PFP, which openly endorsed the Constitutional amendment 
bill when it was passed in the Legislative Yuan last 
year, and the PFP also rationalizes the discrepancy 
between its earlier and current positions regarding the 
Constitutional amendment bill with the alliance's 
discourse. However, the PFP's position opposing the 
writing of referendum into the Constitution was 
criticized by President Chen Shui-bian in a TV 
interview the other day as Chen said [PFP Chairman] 
James Soong was using the position in exchange for the 
Chinese Communist Party's agreement for him to visit. 
Then Chen further pointed his finger at the Chinese 
Communist Party for interfering with Taiwan's 
Constitutional reform and stated bluntly that 
abolishing the National Assembly and writing referendum 
into the Constitutional Amendment bill is essentially 
making a new Constitution. Hence, the article on the 
writing of referendum into the Constitution is not only 
the language of electoral antagonism, but it has been 
upgraded into controversies over whether the Chinese 
Communist Party is interfering with Constitutional 
reform and whether the Constitutional amendment bill is 
essentially the making of a new Constitution. ." 
 
". Essentially, writing referendum into the 
Constitution is just an improved procedure for 
Constitutional amendment ratification designed for the 
replacement of ratification by National Assembly, and 
it does not necessarily relate to de jure Taiwan 
independence, and it is tough to interpret it as 
essentially making a new Constitution. . 
 
"Another dispute that needs to be clarified is whether 
Lien's and Soong's China trips indicated that they have 
joined hands with the Chinese Communist Party to 
restrain Taiwan and whether such a move will endanger 
the construction and development of Taiwan's entity. 
The first thing that must be clarified is that what 
both Lien and Soong advocated in China was that they 
are against Taiwan independence, a position that is 
consistent with the Pan-Blue camp's position.  But anti- 
Taiwan independence obviously should not be seen as 
tantamount to anti-Taiwan.  In other words, each 
political party can have different views and ways to 
express their love and prospects for Taiwan.  All the 
various options, including Taiwan independence, to 
maintaining the status quo, to unification, should be 
protected under the freedom of speech. ." 
 
PAAL