US embassy cable - 05BANGKOK3131

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 003131 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/BCLTV 
PACOM FOR FPA HUSO 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2015 
TAGS: OVIP, PREL, PINS, PGOV, TH, BURMA, Southern Thailand, China 
SUBJECT: PACOM COMMANDER ADM FALLON MEETING WITH NATIONAL 
SECURITY ADVISER: SOUTH, BURMA, CHINA, ET AL. 
 
Classified By: AMB Ralph L. Boyce.  Reasons 1.4 (a and d) 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY:  In a May 3 meeting with visiting PACOM 
Commander ADM William J. Fallon, the Chairman of Thailand's 
National Security Council, General Winai Phattiyakul, 
expressed Thailand's support for the continued "strong 
presence" of the US military in the Asia-Pacific region. 
Winai commented that the Thai military was in the South 
principally to provide support for the understaffed police 
and would stay in that role for at least one to two years to 
provide stability.  He regretted Thailand's initial 
assessment that criminals were primarily responsible for 
Southern violence nd said that Thai leaders now blamed the 
problems on youth who had been misled by extremist religious 
teachers.  Winai reiterated that Thailand was trying to win 
the "hearts and minds" of Thailand's  Southern Maly-Muslim 
population.  Regarding Burma, he downplayed joint 
Thai-Burmese border patrols as a normal and necessary 
activity between neighboring countries.  He asserted that 
Burma would not have democracy anytime soon, and that the 
Rangoon government would surely use the upcoming National 
Convention to ensure it stayed in power.  He opined that 
China's regional clout would continue to grow "faster than 
everyone expects". END SUMMARY 
 
2. (U) Admiral William J. Fallon, Commander of U.S. Pacific 
Command (PACOM) met with the Chairman of Thailand's National 
Security Council, General Winai Phattiyakul on May 3 in 
Bangkok.  Both men expressed their satisfaction with the 
state of the military and security relationship between the 
U.S. and Thailand, which was apparent in the seamless 
U.S.-Thai coordination and cooperation after the December 26 
tsunami, and the May 2 inauguration of the latest Cobra Gold 
 
SIPDIS 
military exercise.  General Winai expressed his pleasure with 
the new multilateral nature of Cobra Gold, and Admiral Fallon 
commented that the inclusion of the Japanese in the exercise 
was a welcome development.  General Winai spoke of the 
importance of retaining a strong U.S. military presence in 
the Asia-Pacific region, which helped maintain stability. 
 
NEW ROLES FOR THE THAI MILITARY 
 
3. (C) When asked about the military presence in the South, 
Winai emphasized that Thailand was trying to have its 
military play a greater role in assisting national 
development and helping with disaster relief in addition to 
its traditional combat-oriented duties.  He noted that, 
although there had been a lot of criticism directed at 
Thailand's deployment of troops to the South, the southern 
deployment was necessary for the security of the region. 
Before the RTA beefed up its presence there, he noted, the 
region had "less than 50 percent" of the personnel needed to 
effectively police the area.  The military was there to help 
provide stability and to work "side-by-side" with the police, 
he said. 
 
CONTINUED MILITARY PRESENCE 
 
4. (C) Winai added that it was essential for the military to 
stay in the South for at least one to two more years.  He 
stated that the imposition of military law in areas of the 
South was necessary to provide a legal basis for the military 
to support the police.  Nonetheless, he said that lifting 
martial law was already being considered in certain districts 
in the three Southernmost provinces.  Winai asserted that 
Thailand's number one priority was to provide safety and 
security to innocent people, and regretted that they had not 
been successful in doing this in the South.  Although 
Thailand was trying hard to win the hearts and minds, he 
noted that many local people remained afraid to cooperate 
with government officials.  The RTG, he said, needed to find 
a way to regain the confidence of the predominantly 
Malay-Muslim population. 
 
PAST MISTAKES 
 
5. (C) Winai regretted that the Thai Government's initial 
assessment of the situation in the South was "not 100 percent 
correct".  While Government officials had originally believed 
the violence was caused by poverty, unemployment and "young 
drug addicts," they were now inclined to believe that the 
young men responsible for the unrest had been "indoctrinated 
by their religious teachers."  When asked whether Thai 
Muslims were well represented in local administration, Winai 
replied that, although programs encouraging the participation 
of Thai Muslims in schools, the armed forces and police 
existed, these efforts had backslid in the past few years. 
Winai told Admiral Fallon that the RTG was working to improve 
Thailand's image in Muslim countries in order to counter 
negative perceptions resulting from its handling of the 
violence in the South. 
 
FRANK TALK ON BURMA 
 
6. (C) When asked about Thailand's recent invitation to Burma 
to begin joint border patrols, Winai replied that Thailand 
felt the need to have a mechanism in place to ensure that 
minor border disputes did not escalate into larger conflicts, 
arguing that these patrols were a normal matter of course for 
two neighboring countries.  He also noted that Burma "always 
accuses" Thailand of assisting dissident groups on the 
border, and admitted that in the past there may have been 
some merit to the claims.  He emphasized that Thailand now 
had a policy of not providing any assistance to armed 
dissident groups on the border.  In his closing comments, 
Winai added that Thailand was "embarrassed" that there were 
those who perceived its policy towards Burma as being at odds 
with that of the international community. 
 
7. (C) Winai noted that there had recently been some major 
changes in the Burmese government resulting in the former 
Prime Minister being sacked.  He also noted that when the 
Thai Supreme Commander Chaisit Shinawatra led a delegation to 
Burma in February, the Burmese government went to great pains 
to emphasize that widespread international rumors of 
continued rifts within the governing SPDC were untrue.  The 
Burmese admitted to "having problems" since October, but said 
that they were looking forward to reconvening the National 
Convention. 
 
8. (C) Winai said that he did not expect much real progress 
to be made on Burma.  "If (Americans) expect to see real 
democracy in Myanmar," they will be "disappointed."  Winai 
speculated that the Burmese government would use every means 
at its disposal to influence the writing of a new 
constitution to maintain its grip on power.  It would be 
highly unlikely for any government in Rangoon to be able to 
meet Western standards for democracy any time soon, he 
opined. 
 
CHINA 
 
9. (C) Winai suggested that China's importance as a regional 
economic power would definitely continue to grow, "perhaps 
even faster than everyone expects."  This would probably lead 
to the development of a stronger Chinese military.  After 
Admiral Fallon noted that military expenditures in China were 
already on the increase, Winai said that this was yet another 
reason that Thailand favored a continued strong U.S. military 
presence in the region.  Winai added that relations with 
China would be a good discussion topic for Admiral Fallon's 
May 4 meeting with Prime Minister Thaksin. 
BOYCE