US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV2936

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002936 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2015 
TAGS: PREL, GOI EXTERNAL, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS, MILITARY RELATIONS 
SUBJECT: SENATOR LIEBERMAN'S MAY 2 MEETING WITH GENERAL 
KUPPERWASSER 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1. (C)  Summary.  Senator Lieberman and Ambassador Kurtzer 
met on May 2 with the Israeli Defense Forces' Chief of 
Military Intelligence Production Division, General 
Kupperwasser.  The discussion focused on the Palestinian 
security situation, including the PA's dismantling of terror 
networks and preparations for upcoming elections.  Senator 
Lieberman also discussed the situation in Lebanon after 
Syrian withdrawal, and developments in Iran.  End Summary. 
 
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The PA & Terror Networks 
------------------------ 
 
2. (C) General Kupperwasser repeatedly expressed his 
disappointment with the lack of action by the Palestinian 
Authority (and President Mahmoud Abbas in particular) in 
dismantling terrorist organizations such as Islamic Jihad and 
Hamas.  Kupperwasser said that there was a need for a change 
of ethos amongst the Palestinian leadership.  Regarding the 
most recent terrorist bombing in Tel Aviv of the Stage 
nightclub on February 25th, Kupperwasser commented that the 
GOI should have been more vocal about demanding a crackdown 
on terrorist networks immediately after the bombing. 
 
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PA Elections & Disengagement 
---------------------------- 
 
3. (C)  Responding to a question from Senator Lieberman, 
Kupperwasser stated his concern that Abbas will spend too 
much political capital in an effort to convince Hamas to 
delay the July 2005 local elections.  In Kupperwasser's 
assessment the PA needed to have Hamas ask for the delay in 
elections (rather than simply announcing a delay themselves). 
 Kupperwasser complained that Abbas paid too high a price for 
Hamas involvement in the current tahadiya (period of calm). 
In exchange for Hamas involvement in the tahadiya, 
Kupperwasser claimed Abbas promised not to collect arms from 
Hamas, not to arrest Hamas members, and to allow Hamas to act 
as a "parallel authority" in Gaza.  Kupperwasser posited that 
Abbas might be willing to let Hamas become involved in 
disengagement planning committees if they cooperate in 
delaying elections.  However, he surmised, Hamas is unlikely 
to ask for a delay in elections and meanwhile join a "unity 
government" with Fatah because such a move could ruin their 
reputation as an "uncorrupted" political alternative in the 
minds of the Palestinian people. 
 
4. (C)  Senator Lieberman and Ambassador Kurtzer both asked 
General Kupperwasser if he believed that Abbas is a 
fundamentally different leader than Arafat.  Kupperwasser 
agreed that he was, but cautioned that he is still waiting 
for Abbas to "tell the truth about the situation" and "win 
the trust of the Israeli people."  Kupperwasser estimated 
that at this delicate political moment Abbas would only do 
what he "needs to" before his visit to Washington DC.  There 
is no replacement for Abbas in Kupperwasser's estimation, 
however "we need something more from him than Hag Sameach" 
(referring to the briefing held by President Abbas in 
Ramallah before Passover in which he wished the Israeli 
people a happy holiday). 
 
---------------- 
...And up North? 
---------------- 
 
5. (C) Turning to a discussion of the situation in Lebanon 
and Syria, General Kupperwasser claimed that "people are 
still trying to understand that Syria is out of Lebanon--most 
of all the Syrians themselves."  However, far from being 
upbeat about the prospects for ending terrorism in Lebanon, 
Kupperwasser claimed that one crossing is still open "for 
military use" and that Iran was transporting weapons each day 
through this passage to Hizballah (after they are flown in 
from Iran to Damascus).  Kupperwasser assessed the potential 
of imminent return on Saturday (May 7) of opposition 
politician Michel Aoun to send a shock wave through Lebanese 
politics.  While pessimistic about the status of combating 
terrorist activities in Lebanon, Kupperwasser claimed that if 
elections are free and fair, it is possible for the 
opposition to win in Lebanese elections.  Predicting that 
this would lead to the end of Syrian-Lebanese military ties, 
Kupperwasser maintained that terrorists and weapons are being 
transferred into the refugee camps in Lebanon now, in case 
such shipments are not possible in the future.  Kupperwasser 
praised American involvement in forging ahead with UNSC 
Resolution 1559, because "Syria only cares what the United 
States thinks." 
 
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Iran 
---- 
 
6. (C)  Senator Lieberman queried General Kupperwasser about 
his views on Iranian nuclear intentions.  While General 
Kupperwasser would not predict a timeline for Iranian 
completion of a working nuclear weapon, he restated the 
Israeli view that the Iranian nuclear program is a military 
project.  He further surmised that the leadership will 
continue to play the game (of EU-3 dialogue and engagement) 
until the moment of truth: referral to the UN Security 
Council.  Senator Lieberman questioned why Security Council 
review would have any impact in the regime; Kupperwasser 
replied that Iran does not want to become a pariah state. 
Kupperwasser concluded should the Iranian nuclear program be 
referred to the UNSC, it would endanger the internal 
stability of the regime - and the regime would choose 
survival over a nuclear weapon. 
 
7. (U)  Senator Lieberman did not have a chance to clear this 
message. 
 
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