US embassy cable - 05SANTODOMINGO2636

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SANTO DOMINGO 002636 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR WHA, WHA/CAR, WHA/EPSC, EB, EB/TPP/BTA/EWH; 
NSC FOR SHANNON AND MADISON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD;TREASURY FOR OASIA-LCARTER 
USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION 
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH; DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ETRD, PREL, DR, Dominican Politics 
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN POLITICS #25: FERNANDEZ'S SPECIAL 
BRIEFING BEFORE VISITING THE UNITED STATES 
 
1.  (SBU) Following is #25 in our series on the first year of 
the Fernandez administration: 
 
Fernandez's Special Briefing Before Visiting the United States 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
Last week U.S. academic Howard Wiarda of the University of 
Georgia became Leonel Fernandez,s personal trainer for the 
President,s trip May 9-12 to the United States to meet 
President Bush.  Wiarda was in Santo Domingo for a three-day 
seminar and an inhouse invitation-only lecture on May 5 at 
Fernandez,s Fundacin Global (FUNGLODE).  Fernandez thinks 
highly of Wiarda.  He told Foreign Minister Carlos Morales 
Troncoso to be at the event, and Fernandez invited Wiarda for 
a two-hour private breakfast/discussion the next day. 
 
Wiarda had spent close to two hours with the Embassy,s 
political officer on May 3, before beginning his 
presentations.  The two were acquaintances from Brazil and 
from Wiarda,s visit last year for the presidential 
elections.   Political officer attended the 
standing-room-only audience at the FUNGLODE auditorium for 
Wiarda,s talk on &The Foreign Policy of the Second Bush 
Administration.8  Fernandez and Morales Troncoso were there. 
 Deputy Foreign Minister Alejandra Liriano introduced Wiarda 
and took notes at the head table.  Print media have paid 
scant attention because they were not invited.  One brief 
mention appeared in "Diario Libre" May 6.  Germn Marte,s 
longer article in "Hoy" on May 7 was based on an interview in 
which Wiarda explained the political obstacles to U.S. 
ratification of CAFTA.  Following their usual editorial 
slant, "Hoy" editors titled the front page piece &Expert 
Foresees Rejection of CAFTA by U.S. Congress.8 
 
Highlights of the hour-long address, followed by more than 
half an hour of Q&A : 
 
- - U.S. foreign policy today, as in much of the past, 
attaches a low priority to Latin America.  Top policymakers 
by and large have paid attention only to crises in the 
region. 
 
- - This is inevitable, because the United States as the sole 
superpower must engage with &more than 200 political 
entities8 (nations and international organizations).  The 
Dominican Republic is a small blip on a big screen. 
 
- - Dominicans tend to overestimate U.S. interest here, since 
on their screen the United States outshines all others. 
 
- - &Benign neglect8 is not necessarily a bad thing. 
Crisis managers in Washington are exasperated with countries 
that keep them awake at night.  Substantive regional 
policymaking takes place below the White House and cabinet, 
at assistant secretary and DAS level, by officials who have 
relevant area expertise and experience. 
 
- - Since January, many of these sub-cabinet officials have 
been replaced by less ideological, more pragmatic successors. 
 Secretary of State Rice has more interest in the developing 
nations than her predecessor. 
 
- - President Fernandez will go to Washington at a propitious 
moment.  After 3-1/2 years of the global war on terror, which 
is on the way to being won, the second Bush administration is 
&looking for a way to withdraw U.S. forces from Iraq,8 move 
away from an overriding concern with counter-terrorism, and 
&return to more normal diplomacy.8 
 
- - &Mr. President, you will find U.S. policymakers more 
open to your proposals and your country,s needs than at any 
time in the recent past.  It,s up to you and your government 
to take advantage of this favorable moment (coyuntura).8 
 
- - Secretary Rice,s recent trips to Latin America and 
Europe are important signals of this rebalancing of U.S. 
priorities. 
 
- - The administration is taking up recommendations that Dr. 
Wiarda and other academic experts originally developed for 
President George H.W. Bush in 1991-92 on future directions of 
post-Cold War policy.  The recommendations were shunted aside 
during the Clinton Administration, began to be implemented in 
2001 with Mexico, were thrown into abeyance by 9/11, and are 
again being dusted off.  Essentially:  Reduce the traditional 
emphasis on Europe and the Middle East; devote more attention 
to Asia and Latin America. 
 
- - The Dominican Republic is a much more sophisticated 
partner for the United States today than in 1962, when Wiarda 
first came here.  Then the country was 75 percent illiterate, 
70 percent rural, underdeveloped, and dependent on sugar for 
80 percent of its exports; today Dominicans are 75 percent 
literate, 70 percent urban, produce more in commerce, 
services, and manufacturing than in agriculture, and depend 
on sugar for only 3 to 4 percent of GDP and a small fraction 
of exports. 
 
- - The Dominican-American community is entering politics, 
holds elected offices at municipal and state levels, and is 
beginning to influence policy as part of the large Hispanic 
minority in the United States.  Dominican-Americans will help 
promote this country,s interests in the United States, e.g., 
in the current lobbying for U.S. ratification of CAFTA, which 
would offer the country unrestricted access to the world,s 
biggest market. 
 
- - The changes in the country since the fall of the Trujillo 
dictatorship reflect those elsewhere in Latin America. 
Thirty years ago, 17 of the 20 countries had authoritarian 
regimes; today 19 of 20 (34 of 35 if all the Caribbean is 
included) have governments that are more or less democratic. 
Stable democracy correlates highly with developed economies. 
Unstable Haiti, Ecuador, Bolivia, and Paraguay are 
illustrative.  Venezuela is an exception &because it floats 
on oil.8 
 
- - U.S. authorities prefer to deal with democracies, which 
are more responsible than extreme regimes of right or left. 
 
- - Structural issues in the region include corruption, 
poverty, income inequality, social justice, and a growing 
disenchantment with democracy among citizens who do not enjoy 
expected benefits in well-being or services such as education 
and health care.  Strong democratic faith in the Dominican 
Republic relates to bad memories of the Trujillo era. 
 
Q&A were led off by polemical Hamlet Herman, who criticized 
Wiarda,s view of U.S. policy changes as optimistic.  Other 
questioners chimed in skeptically on specifics.  The speaker 
gave reasoned replies to each. 
 
2. (U) Drafted by Bainbridge Cowell. 
 
3.(U) This piece and others in our series may be consulted 
on our classifed SIPRNET site 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo< /a> along 
with extensive other material. 
KUBISKE