US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI2114

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002114 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, CH, TW, Cross Strait Politics 
SUBJECT: CHEN CAMPAIGN OFFENSIVE DRAWS CRITICISM FROM ALL 
SIDES 
 
REF: A. TAIPEI 2076 
 
     B. TAIPEI 2066 
     C. TAIPEI 2001 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: President Chen Shui-bian has continued to 
lash out at his political opponents in an effort to retake 
the agenda in the lead-up to the May 14 National Assembly 
(NA) election.  On May 9, Chen singled out former President 
Lee Teng-hui for criticism, accusing Lee of hypocrisy for 
demanding actions by Chen that Lee himself did not pursue as 
President.  Chen also asserted publicly that People First 
Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong had privately promised Chen 
the PFP would support the Special Defense Procurement Budget 
after the NA election.  The revelation came on the heels of 
Chen's May 8 accusation that Soong had colluded with Beijing 
to derail constitutional reforms that will be voted on by the 
NA.  Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) officials say 
privately that Chen's recent policy shifts have caused DPP 
morale to plummet.  While some in the DPP warn that Chen's 
recent personal attacks on political figures across the 
spectrum could undermine prospects for post-election 
inter-partisan reconciliation, Pan-Blue officials have been 
careful not to publicly close the door to a post-NA election 
meeting.  Premier Frank Hsieh has tried to limit the damage 
by touting a planned speech by the President on May 20 that 
will lay out his policy of reconciliation.  Despite all the 
flak Chen has put in the air, he has not yet signaled a 
retreat from the pragmatic course he adopted in early May by 
accepting Lien Chan's trip to the PRC.  End Summary. 
 
You Can Insult All of the People Some of the Time 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
2. (SBU) President Chen Shui-bian's move to seize the 
political agenda in the days leading up to the May 14 
National Assembly (NA) election has provoked criticism from 
all sides of the ideological spectrum.  Taiwan Solidarity 
Union (TSU) officials reacted angrily to Chen's May 9 attacks 
on former President Lee Teng-hui.  Chen accused Lee of 
hypocrisy for demanding Chen pursue policies that Lee himself 
did not pursue as President.  Chen said that former President 
Clinton told Chen personally that Clinton would never 
criticize President Bush's policies because "the United 
States only has one President."  Chen said that Lee should 
understand that Taiwan also has only one President.  In 
response, TSU Secretary General Chen Chien-ming lashed out at 
Chen, accusing the DPP President of lying to the voting 
public over his 2004 campaign promises to pursue greater 
"Taiwanization" policies. 
 
With Friends Like This... 
------------------------- 
 
3. (C) Chen also further alienated his erstwhile ally, James 
Soong, by asserting that Soong had privately promised the 
President that the PFP would support the government's 
legislative agenda, including over the Special Defense 
Procurement Budget, after the May 14 election.  PFP officials 
immediately denied the existence of any under-the-table 
deals.  KMT Spokesman Chang Jung-kung boasted that Chen's 
revelations would undermine support for the PFP at the May 14 
polls.  PFP officials are still fuming over Chen's May 8 
accusation that Soong met in January in the United States 
with PRC Taiwan Affairs Office Director Chen Yunlin (Ref A). 
President Chen said that Chen Yunlin used his purported 
meetings with Soong (and USG officials) to urge intervention 
to derail plans to revise the constitution (Ref B).  (Note: 
the Department may wish to prepare contingency press guidance 
in case Taiwan reporters ask whether Chen Yunlin raised the 
constitutional revision or National Assembly issues during 
his January meetings in Washington.  End Note.)  PFP 
officials have demanded Chen apologize for the accusation, 
and Soong himself was filmed personally denying any contacts 
with Chen Yunlin in the U.S. 
 
4. (C) While Pan-Blue officials have rejected Chen's recent 
allegations and publicly accused him of souring the political 
atmosphere, PFP and KMT spokesmen have so far stopped short 
of ruling out a post-May 14 meeting of political leaders. 
DPP Legislative Yuan (LY) Defense Committee Member Shen 
Fa-hui told AIT that it is critical for Chen to meet with 
Lien and Soong shortly after the May 14 NA election in order 
to secure a Pan-Blue commitment to move forward on the 
Special Defense Procurement Budget before the LY recesses in 
late May.  Shen complained that Chen's repeated rhetorical 
shifts between reconciliation to condemnation have added an 
unneeded variable to the process.  Shen added, however, that 
the door appears to remain open for a meeting between Chen 
and the two Pan-Blue leaders between the May 14 election and 
the anticipated May 17 vote on the Special Defense 
Procurement Budget in the LY Procedure Committee (Ref C). 
 
5. (C) Chen's recent rhetoric has also provoked sharp 
criticism from within the DPP's own ranks.  DPP officials 
told AIT that party Chairman Su Tseng-chang was furious over 
Chen's condescending treatment of party leaders during a 
televised May 6 DPP leadership meeting.  Officials said that 
Chen privately apologized to Su on May 8, and absolved Su of 
responsibility should the DPP perform poorly in the May 14 
election.  While Su kept his frustration to himself, senior 
New Tide faction members publicly stated that Chen's recent 
sharp rhetoric amounted to a "slap in the face" to New Tide 
co-leader and National Security Council (NSC) Secretary 
General Chiou I-jen, who has tried to help Chen craft his 
centrist policy course.  Chiou's Chief of Staff, Lo Ya-mei, 
told AIT on May 9 that Chiou has been taken off guard by some 
of Chen's recent rhetoric, especially his "revelations" about 
various conversations with James Soong. 
 
6. (SBU) While most DPP leaders have kept a low profile in 
the wake of Chen's public statements, Premier Frank Hsieh 
moved to soften Chen's edge, using a May 9 speech to a 
business group to highlight the President's commitment to 
easing tensions with Beijing and facilitating greater 
cross-Strait economic interaction.  Hsieh touted a planned 
Presidential address on May 20 that Hsieh said will set a 
clear marker for future cross-Strait relations. 
 
Comment: Falling Off the Wagon? 
------------------------------- 
 
7. (C) The media and most political observers thus far appear 
to be writing off the President's series of ad hominem 
attacks on fellow political leaders as typical, if annoying, 
Chen Shui-bian campaign behavior.  Heated domestic political 
rhetoric notwithstanding, it is encouraging that Chen has 
continued to advocate a moderate pragmatic approach to 
cross-Strait issues in recent days.  It is also positive that 
all sides, but particularly the KMT, appear to be responding 
to Chen's statements in ways that leave room for inter-party 
talks and cross-Strait pragmatism after May 14.  The major 
variable may be James Soong.  Chen's decision to smear Soong 
as a PRC stooge while revealing details about under-the-table 
promises may complicate Soong's ability to explain to his 
followers what the PFP stands to gain from an alliance with 
the unpredictable Chen Shui-bian. 
PAAL