US embassy cable - 02HANOI1666

C O N F I D E N T I A L HANOI 001666 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/03/12 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PINR, VM, DPOL 
SUBJECT: PROSPECTS FOR LEADERSHIP STABILITY IN VIETNAM 
 
REF:  HANOI 1517 
 
1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR RAYMOND BURGHARDT, 
REASON: 1.5 (D) 
 
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2. (C)  SUMMARY.  A PARTY PLENUM AND NEW NATIONAL 
ASSEMBLY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS WILL DECIDE ON 
SEVERAL NEW KEY LEADERS.  WHILE SOME PERSONNEL 
JOCKEYING PROBABLY CONTINUES, WE DETECT FEW, IF ANY, 
GENUINE DEBATES ON POLICY DIRECTION.  WE ANTICIPATE 
THAT THE NEW LINE-UP WILL CONTINUE TO BE LARGELY 
COLLECTIVE AND PRAGMATIC IN DECISION-MAKING AS WELL AS 
GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ECONOMIC REFORM AND DIPLOMATIC 
INTEGRATION INTO THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY.  WE 
BELIEVE IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO BUILD ON THE POSITIVE 
MOMENTUM IN BILATERAL TIES WITH AN ACTIVE SERIES OF 
HIGH LEVEL VISITS IN BOTH DIRECTIONS OVER THE NEXT YEAR 
AND BEYOND.  END SUMMARY. 
 
3.  (C)  THE EXPECTED SIXTH PLENUM OF THE CENTRAL 
COMMITTEE OF THE NINTH CONGRESS OF THE COMMUNIST PARTY 
OF VIETNAM (CPV) JULY 4-15 AND THE OPENING OF THE 11TH 
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY (NA) ON JULY 19 WILL LEAD TO A NEW 
ROUND OF SENIOR LEADERSHIP SHIFTS WITHIN THE GVN 
(REFTEL).  AMONG THE LIKELY CHANGES WILL BE ONE OR TWO 
DEPUTY PRIME MINISTERS, AS MANY AS HALF A DOZEN 
MINISTERS, POSSIBLY THE SUPREME PROCURATOR, AND SEVERAL 
NA COMMITTEE CHIEFS, INCLUDING FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND 
ECONOMIC AND BUDGET AFFAIRS.  THE PRESIDENT, PRIME 
MINISTER, AND CHAIRMAN OF THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ARE 
EXPECTED TO WIN RE-ELECTION EASILY. 
 
4.  (C)  MUCH OF THE BACK-DOOR BARGAINING ON PERSONNEL 
SHIFTS HAS PROBABLY ALREADY CONCLUDED, WITH THE PLENUM 
EXPECTED TO GIVE ITS FINAL BLESSING IN PRIVATE TO THE 
NEW SLATE AND THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY, AFTER TOKEN 
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DISCUSSION, TO RATIFY THESE CHOICES OBEDIENTLY.  UNLIKE 
THE RIVALRY BETWEEN THEN-GENERAL SECRETARY LE KHA PHIEU 
AND EVENTUAL GENERAL SECRETARY NONG DUC MANH IN THE 
RUN-UP TO THE 2001 NINTH PARTY CONGRESS, HOWEVER, THESE 
PERSONNEL DECISIONS APPEAR TO HAVE VERY LITTLE TO DO 
WITH IDEOLOGY OR SETTING A DIFFERENT POLICY COURSE FOR 
VIETNAM OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS. 
 
5.  (C)  THE NINTH PARTY CONGRESS ESSENTIALLY MADE THE 
BOTTOM LINE CHOICES IN FAVOR OF EXPANDED ECONOMIC 
REFORM, HIGHER PRIORITY TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR AND 
INTERNATIONAL TRADE, MAINTENANCE OF DOMESTIC STABILITY, 
AND CONTINUED INTEGRATION INTO THE REGIONAL AND 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY.   WE SEE NO ONE ON THE HORIZON 
WITHIN THE CURRENT LEADERSHIP OR POTENTIAL LEADERSHIP 
RANKS WHO IS STAKING AN OPPOSITION TO THIS POLICY 
FRAMEWORK OR WHO MIGHT WISH TO BACKTRACK ON NINTH PARTY 
CONGRESS PRIORITIES.  INDEED, SOME OF THE POTENTIAL 
WINNERS FROM THE LEADERSHIP SWEEPSTAKES, SUCH AS 
CURRENT MINISTER OF TRADE VU KHOAN (A LIKELY DPM) OR HO 
CHI MINH CITY PARTY CHIEF NGUYEN MINH TRIET (STILL A 
DARK HORSE CANDIDATE AS DPM) MIGHT SEEK FURTHER TO 
ENERGIZE THE GVN'S ECONOMIC REFORM PROCESS ONCE IN 
OFFICE.  NO ONE IN SIGHT, HOWEVER, APPEARS TO BE 
ADVOCATING FOR SIGNIFICANT POLITICAL REFORM, APART FROM 
AN ONGOING IF SEEMINGLY STERILE CAMPAIGN TO STRENGTHEN 
"GRASSROOTS DEMOCRACY" AND NUMEROUS SUCCESSFUL PROGRAMS 
(INCLUDING WITH USG SUPPORT) ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF RULE 
OF LAW. 
 
6.  (C)  THE CPV AND GVN LEADERSHIP HAS WEATHERED 
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NUMEROUS CHALLENGES SINCE NATIONAL UNIFICATION IN 1975, 
PARTICULARLY THE DARK DAYS OF ISOLATION AND ECONOMIC 
DISASTER IN THE 1980'S AND THE FALL-OUT FROM THE 1997 
ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS.  WHAT WE ARE LEFT WITH IS NOT A 
GENERATION OF RISK TAKERS OR VISIONARIES, BUT RATHER A 
MORE OR LESS GENUINELY COLLECTIVE LEADERSHIP (WITHOUT 
ANY HOTSHOTS OR STARS) THAT IS INCREASINGLY PRAGMATIC 
RATHER THAN DOGMATIC.  THESE INDIVIDUALS APPARENTLY 
UNDERSTAND AND AGREE ON THE CRITICAL NEED FOR ECONOMIC 
DEVELOPMENT AND JOB CREATION, WHILE NONETHELESS 
STRIVING TO MINIMIZE THREATS TO SOCIAL ORDER, DOMESTIC 
STABILITY, AND MAINTENANCE OF CPV POLITICAL POWER. 
 
7.  (C)  EMBASSY BELIEVES THAT THE NEW LEADERSHIP WILL 
CONTINUE TO BE COMPOSED OF INDIVIDUALS WITH WHOM THE 
USG CAN WORK PRODUCTIVELY.  WE LOOK FORWARD TO 
COORDINATING WITH WASHINGTON AGENCIES ON AN ACTIVE 
SCHEDULE OF VISITS IN BOTH DIRECTIONS OVER THE NEXT 
YEAR AND BEYOND IN ORDER TO BUILD ON THE POSITIVE 
MOMENTUM IN OUR BILATERAL TIES. 
BURGHARDT 
 
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