US embassy cable - 05CAIRO3495

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 CAIRO 003495 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, EG, Democracy Reform 
SUBJECT: CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM AND THE OUTLOOK FOR 
DEMOCRACY IN EGYPT 
 
REF: A. CAIRO 3424 
 
     B. CAIRO 2536 
     C. CAIRO 1509 
 
Classified by A/DCM Michael Corbin for reasons 1.4 (b) and 
(d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) Egypt's People's Assembly (PA) is expected to approve 
on May 10 legislation that would amend Article 76 of the 
constitution to allow, for the first time, the direct and 
competitive election of the President.  The bill was approved 
by the PA's legislative affairs committee and endorsed on May 
8 by the Shura Council, parliament's upper house, after two 
months of study, drafting, and debate in the wake of 
President Mubarak's late February call for the amendment. 
Once approved by the PA, the amendment will be put to a 
public referendum in late May before it takes force.  Two 
surprises in the draft are that it allows 
individuals/independents, (as well as party-nominated 
candidates) to compete, and that a grandfather clause (to be 
applied this year only) will allow any licensed political 
party to name a presidential candidate. (This exceeds the 
expectation that only parties currently seated would be 
allowed to field candidates this year.)  However, a range of 
opposition figures, reform advocates, and independent 
observers are heaping scathing criticism on the PA's draft, 
arguing that the hurdles it sets for independents to qualify, 
and for parties to nominate their own candidates, are 
impossibly high.  Critics charge the modalities spelled out 
in the bill reduce the President's constitutional amendment 
initiative to a gimmick that will leave voters with no more 
say in the selection of their president than they had under 
the old referendum system. 
 
2. (C) Our own view, grandfather clause notwithstanding, is 
that prospects for a seriously contested presidential race 
this year are dubious.  Even if we ascribed to the GOE the 
best intentions in pursuing this amendment, the opposition 
parties, overall, are so disorganized, ill-led, and penilless 
(as a result of both their own incompetence and longstanding 
NDP sabotage) that serious presidential competitors are 
unlikely to emerge.  As for the long haul, any possibility 
that the terms set forth in this draft could be assessed as 
fair and equitable would be tied to the execution of fully 
transparent and competitive parliamentary elections this fall 
- an outcome itself dependent on a decisive break from past 
practices.  As this initiative moves forward, we need to make 
clear to our GOE interlocutors that we have noted the 
reservations many of credible Egyptians and underline that if 
this amendment is to be assessed as a genuine political 
reform step it will have to be accompanied by transparent 
parliamentary elections this fall.  End summary. 
 
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The Process 
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3. (SBU) Apparently relying on leaks from parliamentary 
sources, Egyptian newspapers began on May 5 to report details 
of the PA legislative committee's draft of the amendment to 
Article 76 of the constitution, which stipulates the 
country's method for presidential selection.  Under President 
Mubarak's instructions, the committee was tasked with 
amending the article to allow for the president to be elected 
directly by the voters in a competitive process, discarding 
the referendum system in place since the establishment of 
Egypt's republic in 1952. 
 
4. (SBU) In the two and a half months since President Mubarak 
surprised observers by calling for the amendment, the PA's 
legislative affairs committee, tasked by speaker Fathy 
Surour, has taken the lead in drafting the legislation that 
spells out the modalities and parameters of the 
constitutional amendment.  Both houses of parliament made a 
point of holding a number of public hearings on the issue, 
and there has been extensive commentary in both official and 
independent Egyptian media on the subject. 
 
5. (C) The key issue throughout the debate on the amendment 
has been the formula by which prospective candidates can 
qualify to run for president.  Political analysts and 
opposition leaders have repeatedly urged that the PA not set 
the bar too high for candidates to qualify, lest most or all 
serious potential contenders for the post be excluded.  As 
the details of the legislative committee's draft came to 
light in early May, it appeared to most observers that this 
advice was disregarded. 
 
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The Fine Print 
-------------- 
 
6. (SBU) In the draft widely reprinted by Egyptian papers 
over the weekend of May 6, the bill stipulated that 
candidates unaffiliated with political parties may run for 
president, provided they secure at least 300 nominations from 
elected members of the legislature, to include at least 65 of 
444 elected members of the PA, at least 25 of 88 elected 
members of the Shura council, and at least 10 elected members 
of local councils in each of at least 14 of 26 provinces. 
 
7. (SBU) Licensed political parties may also nominate 
candidates for the presidency, provided they have been in 
legal status as recognized parties for five continuous years 
and secured at least 5 percent of the seats in each of the PA 
and the Shura Council in the most recent parliamentary 
elections.   The bill also puts in place a grandfather clause 
exempting parties from this requirement for the 2005 
elections only, essentially opening the competition this year 
to any of the 14 licensed and operating opposition political 
parties.  (Note:  Four other parties are licensed but 
currently "suspended" - mainly due to pending internal 
leadership disputes.  Previous speculation among observers 
was that independents would be excluded from the process and 
that the grandfather clause would apply to only parties 
currently seated in parliament.  End note.) 
 
8. (SBU) Regulating the presidential elections would be a 
nine-member commission, chaired by the President of the 
Constitutional Court, and including three senior jurists and 
five "neutral" members of the public of whom three would be 
named by the PA and two by the Shura Council. 
Controversially, the bill stipulates that the decisions of 
the committee are final and not subject to dispute, 
contestation, or appeal.   Justice Minister Aboul Leil was 
quoted in several Egyptian dailies on May 9 as stating that 
the national referendum (required to ratify an amendment to 
the constitution) would be held before the end of the month. 
 
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Reactions: Generally Negative 
----------------------------- 
 
9. (SBU) Among opposition parties, and a range of independent 
observers and commentators, reaction so far to the PA's draft 
has been negative.  The opposition Wafd Party's daily 
newspaper pronounced its verdict in unequivocal terms on its 
banner headline:  "Assassination of Political Life in Egypt: 
The state does not believe in political pluralism...Its 
insistence on imposing the control of the NDP is clear...The 
state will have a free hand in supervising the elections." 
 
10. (SBU) Khaled Mohieldin, honorary chairman of the leftist 
Tagammu' Party who had stated (but not formally announced) 
his intention to run for President said that he was now 
reconsidering in light of news of the PA's draft amendment. 
Speaking to the independent daily Al-Masry Al-Youm, Mohieldin 
denounced the draft, saying it reduced the amendment to a de 
facto referendum.  He also described the requirement that 
parties secure at least five percent of the seats in the PA 
and the Shura as obstructive.  Mohieldin said he would make a 
final decision on his candidacy after he the final version is 
approved by the full PA. 
 
11. (C) (Comment:  As noted in ref A, the respected (but 
octogenarian) Mohieldin is the only party representative 
other than Ayman Nour to have expressed an interest in 
competing for the presidency this year.  His withdrawal would 
leave only Nour among those legally qualified to compete, 
although Nour, who faces a criminal forgery trial in late 
June, may well be subsequently disqualified by revisions to 
the law on political rights, also due before the current 
parliamentary session ends in June.  End comment.) 
 
12. (C) The draft was also denounced as "unacceptable" and 
"undemocratic" by representatives of the Muslim Brotherhood 
(whose spokesman, Essam Erian, was arrested on May 6, 
reportedly just before he announced his own intention to 
"run" for president - more on MB developments septel), and by 
Kifaya ("Enough") a protest movement comprising a broad and 
eclectic range of political trends (ref A). 
 
13. (C) Significantly, opposition to the draft is even coming 
from some key reform advocates within the ruling National 
Democratic Party (NDP).  Usama Ghazaly Harb, the prominent 
liberal journalist and member of the NDP's reformist policy 
secretariat, was one of a handful of dissenters in the Shura 
 
SIPDIS 
Council during the May 8 vote.  Ghad Party Vice President 
(and fierce GOE critic) Hisham Kassem told poloff on May 9 
that disappointment in the draft was "nearly universal." 
 
14. (SBU) However, Mustafa Fiqqi, another NDP parliamentarian 
generally viewed as a member of the party's "reform camp," 
was among those who endorsed the draft and urged the 
opposition to take advantage of the new opportunities 
presented by the amendment.  Another NDP MP asserted to the 
press that the five percent rule (for parties to put forward 
presidential candidates) was reasonable and that "any party 
that can't win five percent of the seats can't claim to have 
a voice" in the nation's affairs. 
 
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Comment: Where Do We Go From Here? 
---------------------------------- 
 
15. (C) We stand by our assessment (ref C) of Mubarak's 
initiative to amend Article 76 of the constitution as 
historic.  The move represents a major concession of 
principle (that direct, competitive elections, rather than 
referenda, bestow legitimacy on a head of state).  The move 
also broke the taboo on constitutional reform - it was, in 
essence, a climbdown from the GOE's longstanding position 
that the constitution was a virtually sacrosanct document, 
and the move has opened the door much wider for debate on 
further, potentially sweeping, amendments.  The move has also 
fueled vigorous public debate, previously conducted with 
great caution, on the merits of President Mubarak and 
alternatives to him.  At the same time, the notion that 
Mubarak, in undertaking this step, was laying the cornerstone 
for a truly democratic legacy is now clearly in question. 
 
16. (C) It was always questionable whether this year's 
presidential contest would feature serious competition. 
Egypt's legal opposition parties, on the whole are weak, 
disorganized, ill-led and virtually peniless, due to the 
combination of NDP sabotage and the parties' own 
incompetence.  The prospective withdrawal of the leftist 
Tagammu' party's Mohieldin from the race would leave only the 
Ghad Party's Ayman Nour facing Mubarak.  As for Nour, even if 
he was not facing a criminal forgery trial set to begin just 
as the presidential campaign should be revving up, he would 
have been facing an uphill battle, as a relatively unknown 
leader of a fledgling party against the vast resources and 
institutional weight of the NDP.  As it turns out, Nour's 
arrest and detention led to the near implosion and apparent 
hobbling of his party, and he charges (credibly, we believe) 
that the NDP and security authorities have been engineering 
aggressive harassment and disruptions of his campaign events. 
 
 
17. (C) Beyond the 2005 presidential race, the most serious 
question is whether Mubarak, in pressing for this amendment, 
is laying the foundation for a democratic legacy for Egypt. 
The answer will hinge on the GOE's ability to make a dramatic 
break with past electoral practices in this year's 
parliamentary elections.  The requirement that prospective 
independent presidential candidates obtain 300 endorsements 
from parliament and regional councils is primarily designed 
to exclude candidates from the Muslim Brotherhood and other 
Islamist groups, who are also prevented from operating as 
political parties by a constitutional ban on "religiously 
based parties."  The endorsement requirement for 
independents, along with the requirement that political 
parties obtain 5 percent of the seats in parliament in order 
to put forward presidential candidates, might be assessed as 
reasonable hurdles in the presence of a transparent electoral 
system. 
 
18. (C) However, no opposition party can currently meet this 
requirement.  The largest opposition bloc (though it is not 
recognized as an official parliamentary bloc) is the Ghad 
Party with six out of 454 seats in the PA.  The Wafd and 
Tagammu' parties each hold three PA seats - 15 others are 
held by "independents" linked to the Muslim Brotherhood. 
The NDP's overwhelming dominance in the national legislature 
(even greater at local levels), it is widely agreed, is the 
product of a variety of dubious and flawed electoral 
practices which have historically stacked the deck against 
challengers. 
 
19. (C) While the introduction of judicial electoral 
supervision of polling stations in the 2000 elections was 
welcomed as a partial remedy, critics have cited a number of 
other obstacles to fair and transparent elections in Egypt, 
including outdated and easily manipulated voter lists, 
inequitable distribution of campaign funding, lack of media 
access, and subtle and unsubtle interventions of police to 
intimidate voters and block access to polling stations.  If 
the 2005 elections bear any resemblance to those of 2000, the 
NDP will retain its strong majority in both parliament and 
provincial councils and, under the proposed new rules, the 
door will remain closed to independents and parties that 
would aspire to compete for the presidency. 
 
20. (C) Therefore, in order for the amendment to Article 76 
to be assessed as a step forward on Egypt's path to 
democracy, this year's parliamentary elections will have to 
be the country's most open and transparent ever.  The GOE 
should make every reasonable effort to ensure that opposition 
candidates are afforded every opportunity to compete for 
seats this fall.  Ironically, the GOE, to maintain the 
credibility of its stated commitment to political reform, 
will have to hope that the opposition wins as many 
parliamentary seats as possible in the coming elections.  If 
the same ratio of ruling party to opposition seats is 
preserved, the significance of the amendment will be 
completely undermined.  The rough tactics and dirty tricks 
the ruling party is allegedly pursuing against Ayman Nour's 
Ghad Party do not bode well in this regard. 
 
21. (C) As the amendment process moves forward, we need to 
underscore to GOE interlocutors how much is riding on the 
implementation of credible, transparent parliamentary 
elections this fall.  President Mubarak still has room for 
maneuver:  Almost all of the criticism leveled at the draft 
laid out by parliament has been directed at the PA rather 
than himself.  He could, theoretically, tell the parliament 
that he is not satisfied with their blueprint and ask them to 
revise it to improve the opportunities for genuine 
competition.  It is also within the power of Mubarak and the 
NDP to ensure that the management of this year's 
parliamentary elections does not resemble that of past years. 
 
 
Visit Embassy Cairo's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/cairo 
 
You can also access this site through the 
State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. 
 
GRAY