US embassy cable - 05KINSHASA779

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000779 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KPKO, MARR, CG 
SUBJECT: CLEANING HOUSE IN KATANGA 
 
Classified By: PolCouns MSanderson, reasons 1.4 b/d. 
 
1. (C)  Summary:  International and Congolese media have been 
seized in recent days with eye-catching reports of a possible 
provincial seccession or coup against President Kabila in 
Katanga province.  What seems actually to be happening in 
Katanga is the President cleaning house in "his" province. 
The result so far has been that a couple of hundred people -- 
both military and civilian -- have been arrested as 
provincial networks belonging to Air Force Commander General 
John Numbi are broken up.  These moves likely will improve 
security in the province in the short-term, although as we 
come closer to elections the risk of politically motivated 
violence in the province, particularly between the UDPS and 
PPRD, will again increase.  The need to prevent or contain 
pre-electoral and electoral violence has prompted Monuc to 
request additional troops, to be stationed in Katanga and the 
neighboring Kasai provinces, as the current troop levels are 
sufficient only to sustain operations in the Kivus and Ituri 
district.  End Summary. 
 
Katanga -- Hotbed of Problems... 
-------------------------------- 
 
2. (C)  Katanga is widely considered to be President Kabila's 
strong base in the DRC.  His mother and sister live there, 
and he frequently visits, keeping in touch with local 
politicians and businessmen.  His circle of closest advisors 
is composed largely of Katangans, who bring with them (in 
addition to varying degrees of loyalty to the President 
himself) the same divisions which characterize the province 
itself.  Specifically, the north-south divide of Katanga 
province is epitomized by the rivalry between senior 
Presidential Advisor Augustin Katumba (a southerner) and Air 
Force Commander General John Numbi (a northerner). 
Historically the province also has suffered ethnically-based 
violence between Katangans and Kasaians resident in Katanga, 
and a persistent separatist current which dates back to 
independence.  Of these factors, the ethnic issue is 
potentially the most explosive, particularly in the run-up to 
elections, but the internal PPRD dynamic is the most 
difficult to balance. 
 
... and Intrigue 
---------------- 
 
3. (C)  Tensions have been rising in Katanga for the last 
several months, partly as a result of Numbi's activities, 
which include inciting new violence against the Kasaians. 
(Numbi was implicated in the previous killing of Kasaians 
when the "real Katangans" tried to purge their province of 
outsiders.)  Numbi built a series of networks in southern 
Katanga, based in Lubumbashi and Kolwezi (a mining town), 
penetrating the Presidential Guard (GSSP), regular military, 
the intelligence services (particularly the ANR), Gecamines 
(the mining company for which Numbi's father worked), several 
NGOs and parts of the political structure.  Elements of the 
latter two have been associated with recent separatist 
tracts.  Numbi also is known to have connections to certain 
Mai Mai elements in northern Katanga who have been among the 
most troublesome in terms of provincial security. 
 
4. (C)  About three weeks ago, and apparently in response to 
indications that Numbi was preparing some sort of "action" in 
Katanga, President Kabila apparently decided to preemptively 
strike as many of Numbi's networks as possible.  The first 
step was to bring quietly into the country some of the 
Congolese soldiers (mostly former Tigers and their 
descendants) who had been residing in neighboring Zambia. 
These troops moved quickly into the northern part of the 
province and began military action against some of the Mai 
Mai there, with the result being reportedly several hundred 
Mai Mai casualties and the forced dispersal of some of the 
most intransigent elements who had been located near 
important mining sites (some of which belong to friends of 
Augustin Katumba, the President's advisor).  On May 4 
National Security Advisor Samba Kaputo, a Presidential 
loyalist of Katumba's camp, was dispatched to Lumbumbashi 
where he reportedly foiled an attempt by the GSSP to take 
over the city's airport.  In the ensuing days, according to 
the Vice Governor of the province, a PPRD member and Kabila 
loyalist, Kaputo also seized several arms caches, arrested 
over 30 regular military officers and the head of the local 
civilian intelligence office (a known Numbi crony), and 
several civil servants and politicians in Lubumbashi, Kolwezi 
and Likasi, totalling about 200 individuals.  The military 
cleanup is expected to continue and expand, according to 
Defense Minister Adolphe Onusumba, who was dispatched to 
Lubumbashi by the President May 8 to assist Kaputo. 
 
Oil On Troubled Waters 
---------------------- 
 
5. (C)  President Kabila himself went to Lubumbashi May 9, 
probably to deal directly with the involvement in the 
intrigue of former provincial governor Katebe Katoto, whose 
younger brother, Moise Katumbi, is a friend of Augustin 
Katumba and of the President himself.  In the murky waters of 
Katanga politics, Katoto's connection to the fracas appears 
to lie in his financial -- and political -- support for 
"Solidarite Katangese," a local NGO whose director is one of 
those arrested in the recent sweep.  (Note:  "Solidarite 
Katangese" sprang from the roots of an older organization, 
"Katangese Pour La Soldarite," which had been involved in the 
massacre of Kasaians.  As such, it is regarded as loosely 
belonging to Numbi's sphere of influence as well. End Note.) 
Kabila had already met twice with Katoto, once in Kinshasa 
and once in Lubumbashi, to try to moderate his anti-Kasaian 
behavior and rhetoric, but Katoto is a hard man with whom to 
negotiate, given that his objective is to be elected governor 
-- an ambition that Kabila does not support.  Kabila would 
prefer to avoid arresting either Katoto or Numbi, since doing 
so likely would cause the current situation to escalate just 
when it appears on the point of being resolved.  Instead, 
Numbi has been forced to remain in Lubumbashi, powerless to 
protect or assist those who had been working for him, and 
likely Katoto's punishment will be much the same. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
6. (C)  Although the press has been seized with the 
separatist angle to the story, the Katanga developments have 
virtually nothing to do with separatism and everything to do 
with a power play by Numbi, who is disgruntled at not being 
named commander of the army in the wake of a financial 
scandal involving current army chief General Kisempia.  Given 
Numbi's temperament -- and temper -- it is quite likely that 
he was planning some sort of violent action in response to 
the President's military move against Mai Mai elements that 
Numbi controls.  Although this incident is, therefore, 
something of an internal house-cleaning, there remains a very 
real risk that as we move into the pre-electoral and 
electoral period there will be renewed violence between 
Kasaians and Katangans.  It is in an effort to contain or 
prevent such violence that Monuc is requesting additional 
troops to be stationed in Katanga and the two Kasai 
provinces, which currently have no Monuc military presence. 
Monuc's current deployment is focused on keeping peace and 
dealing with security threats in both Kivus and Ituri 
district, where promising improvements already are underway. 
DOUGHERTY