US embassy cable - 02KATHMANDU1285

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 KATHMANDU 001285 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
LONDON FOR POL - RIEDEL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, NP, Government of Nepal (GON) 
SUBJECT: NEPAL:  PROSPECTS FOR ELECTIONS CLOUDED BY 
SECURITY, LOGISTICAL CONCERNS 
 
REF: A. (A) KATHMANDU 1199 
 
     B. (B) KATHMANDU 1146 
     C. (C) KATHMANDU 1091 
 
Classified By: DCM ROBERT K. BOGGS.  REASON:  1.5(B,D). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C)   Despite Prime Minister Deuba's repeated assurances 
that the Government of Nepal will proceed with national 
elections on schedule, the Embassy finds increasing numbers 
of commentators who express significant concern that 
elections can be held as planned.  Questions about the 
ability of the Royal Nepal Army (RNA) and the police to 
provide adequate security at the nation's 7,000 polling 
places--to say nothing of pre-election campaign 
activities--top the list of such concerns.  Compounding the 
uncertainty is the lack of clear Constitutional guidelines in 
the event elections must be postponed, or cannot be held in 
all 75 districts.  Many observers have suggested the King may 
use a vaguely-worded Constitutional provision granting him 
latitude to act in the event of such "difficulty" to appoint 
an interim government if elections are unable to take place 
on time.  End summary. 
 
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ELECTIONS--FIVE MONTHS AND COUNTING 
------------------------------------ 
 
2.  (C)  Although more than a month has passed since King 
Gyanendra dissolved Parliament and set national elections for 
November 13 (Ref C), serious planning to stage such elections 
still seems largely on hold for a variety of reasons, 
including the split within the Prime Minister's own Nepali 
Congress Party (Ref A); a pending Supreme Court decision on 
the constitutionality of the dissolution of Parliament (Ref 
B); the uncertainty of the security situation; a lack of 
clarity regarding emergency restrictions on campaign 
activities; and last but by no means least, the general 
proclivity towards procrastination across the Nepali polity. 
The Election Commission has yet to announce the findings of a 
redistricting committee, which is reallocating Parliamentary 
seats based on the 2001 census; to make public the budget 
needed to hold the elections; or to decide whether polling 
will be held on a single day or in consecutive phases 
throughout the kingdom.  While there is some speculation that 
the Election Commission may be deferring action until the 
Supreme Court decision on whether to reinstate Parliament, 
there is also concern that planning the logistics of 
elections in a country suffering an insurgency nationwide may 
be proving too much for the Commission's limited resources 
and political clout.  There is some concern that the 
Commission may be ceding much of its planning authority to 
the military, who will, perforce, undertake a greatly 
expanded role in providing security--and thus have much 
greater input in logistical discussions--than ever before. 
 
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SECURITY:  BIGGEST CONCERN, GREATEST LIMITATION 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
3.  (C)  Given the factors cited above, many 
observers--including many would-be participants--question 
whether elections can take place as scheduled.  Concern about 
the ability of the Royal Nepal Army (RNA) and the police to 
provide adequate security at the nation's 7,000 polling 
places--to say nothing of pre-election campaign 
activities--is the most significant source of doubt.  Even 
now, before campaigning has begun, security forces are 
stretched to capacity guarding sensitive infrastructure, 
district headquarters, and government buildings and VIPs in 
Kathmandu.  Many assume the insurgents will attack 
candidates, intimidate voters, and capitalize on the 
diversion of security forces to launch raids on vital 
infrastructure.  A June press release from Maoist leader 
Prachanda brands the elections as a false "drama" staged by 
the Palace and Army, and castigates the Communist Party of 
Nepal - United Marxist Leninist for announcing its intention 
to participate.  More explicit warnings against participation 
have been given to individual politicians in outlying 
districts.  Even if, as has been often suggested, the 
election is conducted in separate phases, with polling taking 
place on different days in different areas of the country, 
any concentration of security forces in a particular 
geographic region could invite a Maoist attack in other, less 
protected areas, some observers fear.  One former MP from the 
Terai, a region comparatively less affected by Maoist 
violence, suggested that conducting polling even in the 
relative safety of his constituency will present significant 
challenges, commenting, "It won't take much effort (for the 
Maoists) to disturb the elections."  How to pay for the 
crippling cost of mobilizing the security needed--one source 
put the price tag at USD 23 million--for a country already 
facing severe budgetary problems is another cause for 
concern. 
 
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ROLE OF THE ARMY 
----------------- 
 
4.  (C) Members of Opposition political parties have also 
voiced concern about the expanded presence of the 
military--whom they perceive as sympathetic toward incumbent 
Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba--at polling places this 
election.  Some question if the Army leadership, who they 
believe influenced Deuba's move to extend the emergency and 
dissolve Parliament, can be counted on to maintain strict 
impartiality during the voting.  During the previous election 
in 1994, Opposition Leader Madhav Kumar Nepal recalled, armed 
thugs kept his party representatives away from some of the 
polling places, making it impossible to monitor the voting 
procedures.  (Note:  International observers judged this 
election to be basically free and fair, but clearly some 
abuses were committed by a number of parties.  End note.) 
With so many more guns in evidence at polling places, even if 
they are in the hands of the military, he said he fears the 
potential for such intimidation will increase. 
 
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PROSPECTS AND PARTICIPATION--THE VIEW FROM SIX PARTIES 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
5.  (C)  Given the degree of uncertainty surrounding the 
elections, politicians from most parties have yet to begin 
campaigning--or trying to construct coalitions--in earnest. 
The paralysis in the Nepali Congress Party, whose two rival 
factions are awaiting an Election Commission ruling on which 
has the right to use the Party name, symbol, and flag in the 
upcoming elections (Ref A), has helped keep the usual 
horse-trading and deal-making in temporary limbo. 
Discussions with representatives of six parties reveal that 
most (with the possible exception of the far-leftist United 
People's Front and National People's Front) are planning to 
participate in elections, while simultaneously expressing 
doubt that elections can be held in the current environment. 
Many Opposition party representatives have also pointed out 
that the emergency continues to place substantial 
restrictions on their ability to campaign, hold rallies, or 
give speeches. 
 
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GOVERNMENT ASSURANCES 
----------------------- 
 
6.  (C)  The Nepali Congress Party alone--that is to say, the 
Deuba faction of the split party--expresses confidence that 
elections will take place as planned.  At a June 28 meeting 
with business leaders and diplomats (from the U.S., U.K., 
France, Germany, and India) at the Ambassador's residence, 
the PM asserted that conducting elections in all 75 districts 
will be "difficult, but not impossible."  The election might 
take place in phases ("perhaps three-to-five phases; I don't 
know") to allow the concentration of security forces needed 
to provide adequate security in a given locality.  He 
acknowledged security will be a problem in seven districts 
and some other constituencies in the Maoist heartland, but 
noted the Royal Nepal Army has enlisted 5,000 new soldiers, 
and the Armed Police Force 7,000 new recruits, who can help 
fulfill the additional manpower requirements during election 
time.  He added that the Government plans to invite 
international observers to participate, possibly under UN 
auspices.  To help defray the costs of holding the election, 
the Government has already decided to suspend "300-400" 
development projects.  He realizes that suspension of these 
projects will be taken at some political cost, but sees no 
alternative to paying that price. 
 
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CONSTITUTIONAL QUESTIONS 
------------------------- 
 
7.  (U)  Nepal's Constitution offers little guidance about 
procedures in the all-too-likely event that elections may not 
take place nationwide by the scheduled date.  The 
Constitution stipulates a five-year term for the Lower House 
of Parliament, "unless dissolved earlier."  If the King 
dissolves Parliament, he must "specify a date, to be within 
six months (of the date of dissolution), for new elections." 
The Constitution does not/not state that elections must 
actually be held within six months, and offers no 
prescription for remedial action if elections are not 
actually held within the specified time. 
 
8.  (SBU) The Constitution also makes no provision for 
partial elections (other than a by-election to fill a seat 
vacated by the death, resignation or dismissal of a member) 
or elections during a state of emergency (except to say that 
Members' terms may be extended for one year during a state of 
emergency).  One legal expert speculated that as long as 
polling could be held to elect at least 25 percent of the 
Lower House's 205 Members--the quorum needed for voting 
purposes--the elections could be deemed valid and the House 
could meet.  Elections for additional seats could then later 
be held as possible.  The Constitution, however, does not 
explicitly authorize such an election, and any attempt to 
convene a Parliament that had fewer than its complete 
membership of 205 elected would undoubtedly face a challenge 
in the Supreme Court.  Nor would people likely accept results 
from an election held only in fortified district 
headquarters, according to former MPs representing four 
different political parties.  Such limited polling would 
constitute a travesty, one commented, and could never be 
characterized as full, free, fair, or an accurate reflection 
of the will of the Nepali people. 
 
9.  (SBU)  If the elections are held, as expected, in phases, 
polling could take as long as six months.  Many observers 
anticipate that degraded security conditions in the Maoist 
heartland will make voting outside of district headquarters 
virtually impossible, possibly necessitating the repeated 
postponement of polling there.  Although the Constitution 
sets no limit on the time by which elections must have taken 
place, many observers fear that protracted polling--and the 
predictable public discontent that would likely accompany 
it--could set the stage for activation of the Constitution's 
ambiguously-worded Clause 127, granting the King the power to 
"issue necessary Orders" to "remove (any) difficulty" arising 
in the implementation of the Constitution.  The vague wording 
of the Clause gives the King broad scope to undertake any 
action he deems likely to "remove such difficulty," from the 
continued postponement of elections to the appointment of an 
interim government. 
 
10.  (C)  Many political and business sources, clearly 
anticipating that stalled elections will necessitate some 
form of Palace intervention, have floated a variety of 
theoretical scenarios for such action, ranging from the 
sublime (the King calls a Constitutional convention; Maoists 
participate; the Constitution is amended; Maoists come into 
political mainstream; free and fair elections are held) to 
the ridiculous (the King reinstates absolute monarchy).  One 
businessman suggested the King could name a caretaker 
government headed by Deuba, appoint a technocrat Cabinet, and 
use the interim before elections to restore good governance, 
root out corruption, and crack down on the insurgency. 
 
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COMMENT 
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11.  (C)  Despite the Prime Minsiter's upbeat assessment of 
election prospects, we share many of our interlocutors' 
reservations about the Government's ability to hold free, 
fair, and credible elections on time, given the threat posed 
by Maoist insurgents in virtually every district of the 
country.  This is not, unfortunately, a problem that can be 
ameliorated by international observers, donor-funded voter 
education programs, or any of the usual battery of assistance 
friendly democracies usually bring to the table.  Continued 
postponement of the elections or any attempt to hold polling 
in only selected parts of the country would doubtless result 
in protracted Court challenges to the validity of the voting 
and the legitimacy of any government so elected.  The Nepali 
Congress political shenanigans that caused the Prime Minister 
to dissolve Parliament have pushed Nepal into a situation 
from which there is no graceful or easy exit. 
 
MALINOWSKI