US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI3480

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 003480 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/08/2015 
TAGS: PREL, MASS, KDEM, IN, NP, India-Nepal 
SUBJECT: GOI TO RESUME NON-LETHAL MILITARY AID TO NEPAL 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: MEA Joint Secretary (North) Ranjit Rae 
called in PolCouns and Poloff on May 7 to inform us that the 
GOI, reviewing its suspension of military assistance to 
Nepal, had decided to release non-lethal supplies in the 
pipeline to the Royal Nepal Army (RNA).  Indian Ambassador to 
Kathmandu Shiv Mukherjee has been instructed to convey this 
decision to King Gyanendra, while explaining the need for 
further steps toward restoration of Nepalese democracy.  The 
GOI does not plan to announce its decision to the press, but 
a Parliamentary debate on Nepal expected for May 11-12 could 
force the GOI to clarify publicly its policy.  Rae agreed 
that the USG and GOI should discuss further the question of 
lethal supplies, including RNA requirements for ammunition. 
End Summary. 
 
Quiet Release of Supplies 
------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Explaining New Delhi's desire to remain in step with 
Washington on Nepal policy, Rae informed us of the GOI 
decision to release some of the non-lethal military supplies 
already in the pipeline, mentioning that this may include 
vehicles and thermal imagers, but that he was not certain of 
the exact composition or value of the supplies and would need 
to verify this with the MoD.  A GOI non-paper noted that the 
decision to resume such assistance was an acknowledgment of 
positive steps the Palace had made.  Rae added that the 
Indian response was "frontloaded" to provide positive 
incentives for the King to continue making progress to 
reverse the royal takeover of power. 
 
3.  (C) Acknowledging the political risk to the GOI in light 
of the King's public statements in Jakarta mischaracterizing 
a potential Indian resumption of arms supplies, Rae told us 
that Ambassador Mukherjee had been sent back to Kathmandu on 
May 7 and instructed to inform the King of the resumption of 
these specific items and nothing more.  His message would be, 
"You took some steps, but we want to see many more steps." 
The GOI does NOT/NOT plan to make any public announcement of 
its decision, but Rae noted that this may change when the 
issue of military assistance to Nepal arises during May 11-12 
Parliamentary debate on the PM's and FM's discussions with 
the King in Jakarta.  If the King again makes the wrong 
moves, "we will have a problem," Rae stated. 
 
USG-GOI Coordination for Delivering Supplies 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) PolCouns expressed appreciation for the advance 
notification of the GOI decision and noted that our DATTs in 
Kathmandu and New Delhi had conveyed to the Indian MoD the 
USG intention to provide some non-lethal items, adding that 
these were the supplies referred to by A/S Rocca in her last 
visit to New Delhi.  Rae asked whether these supplies were 
being provided on a concessional basis or if they had been 
purchased commercially, to which PolCouns replied that we did 
not know but would find out. 
 
5.  (C) Observing that delivery of USG supplies would be 
subject to Indian overflight clearance, PolCouns stated that 
we hoped we would have no problem receiving that clearance. 
Given that the USG and GOI were moving in tandem on the issue 
of non-lethal supplies, Rae doubted that there would be any 
difficulty, but pointed out that it typically takes a week 
after the request to receive clearance. 
 
When Will the RNA Need Ammo? 
---------------------------- 
 
6.  (C)  PolCouns remarked that we have been hearing more 
reports about RNA shortages of ammunition for M-16 and INSAS 
rifles, and suggested that we needed further bilateral 
discussions to determine where the "tipping point" is for the 
RNA in its need for supplies.  Admitting that the GOI had 
also heard similar reports, Rae agreed on the importance of 
clarifying how dire the RNA's needs are, and that it was 
necessary to prevent Nepal from reaching the point where the 
Maoists could threaten a military victory.  Additionally, Rae 
urged avoiding any situation that gives a public perception 
that the Maoists are gaining the upper hand, which could lead 
to "anarchy." 
 
7.  (U) Rae added that he had called in the UK DCM 
immediately after our meeting, who would hear the same 
message. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
8.  (C) The GOI decision to resume the delivery of non-lethal 
equipment in the pipeline in parallel with a similar USG 
decision will help reinforce the public perception that 
Washington and New Delhi are moving in lock-step in response 
to the Palace's actions and the military situation in Nepal. 
However, it will also subject the government to criticism 
from the Left parties and national security hawks, who 
harshly criticized the suggestions after the Jakarta summit 
that the GOI was ready to resume some military supplies to 
the RNA even without full restoration of democracy. 
BLAKE