US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI2075

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 TAIPEI 002075 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - 
ROBERT PALLADINO 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW, Cross Strait Politics 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS 
 
 
1. Summary: President Chen Shui-bian's key moves in an 
attempt to quell the strong criticism against him 
within the DPP were the spotlight of the Taipei dailies 
May 7-9.  All the major Taiwan newspapers reported in 
their front pages May 9 Chen's exclusive and live 
interview with the Sanlih TV channel Sunday evening, in 
which Chen said he felt that the ongoing "China fever" 
signals that Beijing has already started interfering 
with Taiwan's upcoming National Assembly elections and 
constitutional reform efforts.  The pro-independence 
"Liberty Times," Taiwan's biggest daily, ran a banner 
headline on its front page that read: "China instructed 
[PFP Chairman James] Soong to oppose the inclusion of 
the referendum [on people's rights to amend the 
constitution] into the Constitution."  The sub-headline 
added: "President Chen pointed out that [China's Taiwan 
Affairs Office Director] Chen Yunlin went to the United 
States and met with Soong [earlier this year]; Chen 
also placed pressure on the U.S. authorities.  Soong 
denied there was such a meeting."  The front-page 
headline of the pro-unification "United Daily News" 
also said: "Bian: Soong opposed to including the 
referendum [on people's rights with regard to 
constitutional amendments] into the Constitution in 
exchange for [Beijing's invitation] to visit China."  A 
page-two news story in the "Liberty Times" also quoted 
Chen as saying that "the move to include the referendum 
[on people's rights with regard to constitutional 
amendments] into the Constitution is a de facto move to 
institute the Constitution." 
 
2. Several editorials and commentaries discussed U.S. 
President George W. Bush's telephone call to his 
Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao last Thursday and the 
United States' role in cross-Strait relations.  A 
"China Times" commentary by its News Editor Chang Li 
said Bush's call on Beijing to reach out to Taiwan was 
aimed at reminding all the parties involved not to 
forget the presence of the United States in the cross- 
Strait interaction.  A separate "China Times" 
commentary also said Bush has been playing a key role 
in the recent development of cross-Strait relations. 
An op-ed article by a political science professor 
printed in the "United Daily News" said the United 
States is promoting a "peace but no unification with 
China" tactic through James Soong's China visit.  But 
this may bring more problems for Washington.  The 
editorials of limited-circulation, pro-independence 
English-language "Taipei Times" and "Taiwan News" also 
noted that Bush's urging of Hu to reach out to Chen 
showed that Chen's recent moderate approach to dealing 
with domestic and cross-Strait affairs has secured 
renewed support from Washington. 
 
3. In terms of cross-Strait relations, an editorial of 
the "Liberty Times" called on the Taiwan government to 
remain alert to China's threat despite the visits by 
Lien Chan and James Soong to China.  A "United Daily 
News" editorial, on the other hand, urged the Taiwan 
government to accept free interpretations of one China 
by the two sides across the Strait in order to create a 
new cross-Strait situation.  End summary. 
 
A) "Bush Speaks out, and Both Sides of the Taiwan 
Strait Shakes Hands?" 
 
News Editor Chang Li commented in the "United Notes" 
column of the pro-unification "United Daily News" 
[circulation: 600,000] (5/7): 
 
"When Taiwan's opposition leaders visited China 
successively, U.S. President George W. Bush called his 
Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao via the hotline to 
express his hope that Beijing would reach out to the 
Taiwan government proactively.  The Chen Shui-bian 
administration also immediately articulated its 
gratitude to [Washington for Bush's call].  Right at 
that moment, [it seemed as if] all the related parties 
in cross-Strait relations have all stepped onto the 
stage.  Washington's move to actively ask Beijing to 
extend an olive branch to Taiwan was aimed at reminding 
all the parties involved not to forget the presence of 
the United States in the cross-Strait relations. 
 
"For Washington, the recent development of cross-Strait 
relations seems to have gone beyond expectations.  Just 
as the State Department said recently that `the current 
development of cross-Strait relations is no longer in 
the United States' control.'  [AIT Director] Douglas 
Paal's call on [KMT Chairman] Lien Chan before and 
after his China trips indicated the U.S. desire to 
control and lead the [cross-Strait] situation. 
 
"Lien's China trip has not only enhanced his reputation 
and that of the KMT but has in the meantime, trampled 
on President Chen Shui-bian's ruling authority.  What 
the United States dreads is that the Chen 
administration will not be able to stop the strong 
pressure of [Taiwan's public view] and as a result, 
will be dragged by or suddenly tilt toward China during 
the interaction across the Taiwan Strait.  Should that 
happen, the United States will totally lose its control 
and leadership of cross-Strait relations. 
 
"The United States attaches great importance to the 
enormous benefits in the Chinese market.  But on the 
other hand, it is concerned that the `rise of China' 
will threaten United States leadership and its 
strategic position in the international community. 
Taiwan will be a very useful bargaining chip [for 
Washington] to strike a balance between the two ends. 
Bush's request that Hu contact the Taiwan government 
is, to a certain extent, speaking from the role of an 
international arbiter by asserting that only official 
contact is effective.  Such a move, which was 
tantamount to letting the Taiwan government throw the 
ball of pressure back to Beijing, was also an attempt 
to help the Chen Shui-bian government head off danger. 
 
"Both Lien and [PFP Chairman] James Soong represent 
Taiwan's opposition powers, and they are free to do 
anything they plan to because they don't need to 
shoulder the pressure of ruling the government.  As a 
result, they will not listen to everything Washington 
says, and the United States can therefore have only 
limited influence on them.  Bush's call [to Hu], on the 
one hand, can test Beijing's real intentions in 
interacting with Taiwan's opposition parties.  On the 
other hand, it could prevent the situation from 
deviating too much from its current track.  That way 
the United States have the opportunity to exert its 
influence again.  While the Bush administration held 
the hand of the Taiwan government, it was also 
reminding the Taiwan people not to forget the presence 
of the Taiwan government and of course the U.S. big 
brother. 
 
"Even though Bush's hotline talk [with Hu] has 
additionally released some of the pressure the Chen 
government faces now, don't forget: the United States 
is only concerned about whether cross-Strait relations 
are under its control.  Questions like whether pandas 
can come to Taiwan, whether Taiwan's agricultural 
products can be exported to China and whether Chinese 
tourists can visit Taiwan are simply technical issues 
of the administrative levels.  Realization of these 
questions do not need to wait until Hu reaches out to 
Chen." 
 
B) "The Problem Does Not Lie in Chen" 
 
Veteran journalist and Political News Section Director 
Wu Tien-jung commented in the "My Views" column of the 
centrist, pro-status quo "China Times" [circulation: 
600,000] (5/8): 
 
". For a long time, the DPP and independence supporters 
in Taiwan have tended to treat the Washington-Beijing- 
Taipei ties as a zero-sum game.  As a result, Taiwan 
thrills when Washington-Beijing relations deteriorate 
and becomes heavy-hearted and worried when Washington- 
Beijing ties improve.  The independence supporters find 
it hard to forgive President Chen because when 
Washington renewed its defense treaty with Tokyo 
earlier this year, they clearly included Taiwan into 
the treaty.  Those independence activists believe Chen 
has, in the face of such a favorable situation for 
Taiwan, completely wasted the goodwill gesture of the 
international community for no good reason because he 
has tilted toward Beijing, following Lien and Soong. 
 
"But in reality, such an interpretation may not be able 
to fit into the current international situation.  U.S. 
President George W. Bush is generally regarded as a 
U.S. president that is most friendly with Taiwan, and 
his Cabinet has the most officials that are friendly 
with Taiwan.  But in 2003, Bush publicly criticized 
that Chen's behavior might change the status quo of the 
Taiwan Strait and he has constantly sent special envoys 
to Taiwan demanding that Taiwan not cross Washington's 
red line.  Bush has also played a key role in the 
recent interaction across the Taiwan Strait. 
 
"For Washington, even though it maintains a competitive 
relationship with China strategically, it does not mean 
both sides have to resort to arms, let alone go to war 
because of Taiwan.  The DPP needs to adjust itself and 
understand that the Washington-Beijing-Taipei ties do 
not necessarily have to be a zero-sum game.  Washington 
may not necessarily feel unhappy when cross-Strait 
relations improve.  In reality, if there has been any 
improvement in Taipei-Washington relations lately, it 
was mainly because of the goodwill gestures shown by 
Chen towards the resumption of cross-Strait dialogue. 
." 
 
C) "Let Soong Build the Bridge; Is It a Script Or a 
Guarantee by the Americans" 
 
Professor Shih Chih-yu of Department of Political 
Science, National Taiwan University, wrote in the pro- 
unification "United Daily News" [circulation: 600,000] 
(5/9): 
 
". Therefore, one China under the Constitution means 
peace but no unification [with China].  This fits 
perfectly with what Washington has in mind.  The 
question is: is this a line or a guarantee? 
 
"Washington's scheme is to recognize the legitimacy of 
Chen Shui-bian's rule in exchange for his giving up of 
de jure Taiwan independence and then promote cross- 
Strait direct links in exchange for Beijing's 
contentment with the status quo.  Washington's asking 
James Soong to do the job can help Chen Shui-bian evade 
independence advocates.  Co-incidentally, Lien Chan's 
trip solidified the basis for promoting peace but no 
unification.  Washington thus collaborated with Lien 
and reiterated support for him on the eve of the Lien- 
Hu meeting.  It collaborated with James Soong and 
deceptively denied any involvement before his bridge- 
building trip.  It collaborated with Chen Shui-bian by 
suggesting that Hu Jintao reach out to Chen when he 
reacted positively to Lien and Soong's visits to the 
mainland.  Washington won cooperation when it wanted 
Chen Shui-bian to talk only about peace but no Taiwan 
independence and Lien and Soong to talk only about 
peace but no unification.  Opinion polls also showed 
support. 
 
". Washington is capable of facilitating the unstable 
equilibrium of peace but no unification.  But how is it 
going to deal with the hate-turned love between the KMT 
and the Chinese Communist Party, Chen Shui-bian's 
limited ability to constrain the Taiwan independence 
sentiment only for a while, mainland people's 
misinterpretation that unification is around the 
corner, and clashes between pro-unification and pro- 
independence crowds?  Even if James Soong has good 
private relations with all parties involved, all of 
them can break their word at any time.  By that time 
Washington will know what out of control means." 
 
D) "Does the US Get China's Game?" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" 
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (5/7): 
 
"The Bush administration has been sending contradictory 
messages to China in the last two years, damaging US 
strategic interests in East Asia.  So Thursday's phone 
call between US President George W. Bush and his 
Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao comes as a relief. . 
 
"Such sound advice [by Bush] comes as a breath of fresh 
air after the contradictory mess that has been US 
policy.  We have commented before on how the US has 
concentrated on containing Chen and the Democratic 
Progressive Party (DPP) government and boosting the pan- 
blues - to the extent of the State Department's last- 
minute intervention in last December's legislative 
election campaign against the DPP - even though the pan- 
blues, as Greater China nationalists, have strategic 
interests exactly the opposite of the US.  The passage 
of Beijing's "Anti-Secession" Law seems to have finally 
injected a little common sense into policy in 
Washington. . 
 
"Certainly it is in the interests of the US to see 
tensions in the Taiwan Strait reduced by government-to- 
government talks, just as it is also vital to US 
interests that unification never takes place.  The best 
possible outcome therefore would be a Taiwan 
permanently in green hands, and yet at least on `jaw, 
jaw' rather than `war, war' terms with China. 
 
"But how is this to come about?  First, we would remind 
our American friends that while Taiwan is ready to sell 
wax apples to China and pet the pandas if they come, 
the `reunification, independence or status quo' surveys 
show no significant movement as a result of the 
opposition leaders' visits.  Neither the overwhelming 
preference for the status quo, nor the poor support for 
unification either now or in the future, have 
significantly changed. 
 
"And secondly, we would also remind them that the arms 
budget has still not been passed and that this is the 
fault specifically of the KMT.  We said a couple of 
weeks ago that it was time the US applied pressure to 
the KMT leadership - visa and entry denials, and IRS 
audits of US business interests of KMT leading lights 
would be the weapons of choice.  If the tactic to 
isolate Chen appears to be gaining too much ground, 
nothing would throw a spanner in the works as much as 
the KMT backing passage of the weapons procurement bill 
- and a little arm-twisting might bring that about." 
 
E) "Reinforcing Taiwan's Self-Confidence" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" 
[circulation 20,000] noted in its editorial (5/9): 
 
". Among all leaders in Taiwan, President Chen Shui- 
bian stands at a critical historical crossroad in terms 
of the challenge of leading the country to bridge 
domestic divisions and the cross-strait difference, 
while at the same time safeguarding Taiwan's 
sovereignty, dignity and the democratic achievements 
that the 23 million people have earned in the past 
decade. . 
 
"The president's recent moderate approach to deal with 
domestic and cross-strait affairs has secured renewed 
support from Washington that was manifested last week 
by the advice given by United States President George 
W. Bush to Hu in a `hot-line' telephone conversation to 
`continue working on ways to reach out to President 
Chen as the duly elected leader of Taiwan.' 
 
"Despite Beijing's transparent campaign to marginalize 
Chen and the DPP government, Bush's initiative, as well 
as the growing reluctance of the European Community to 
ease a 16-year old arms embargo on the PRC, should help 
reassure Taiwan's citizens that the international 
community has seen through this ploy." 
 
F) "Don't Lose a Sense of Alertness Because of an 
Illusion of Peace" 
 
An editorial of the pro-independence "Liberty Times" 
[circulation: 800,000] noted (5/9): 
 
". Facing the fact that the opposition parties hold the 
majority of seats in the Legislative Yuan, the 
government, for the sake of reconciliation between 
ruling and opposition parties and cross-Strait 
stability, made good wishes for Lien and Soong's visits 
to China and even asked them to be the pioneers.  This 
may be explained as an expedient measure.  However, we 
have to give a serious reminder here that expedient 
measures can never replace the fundamentals.  If the 
government loses its sense of alertness while placing 
hopes on Lien and Soong, the special legislation for 
military procurements may not be adopted in the end. 
And Lien and Soong may form partnerships with Beijing. 
Then there will be immediate danger to Taiwan's 
sovereignty and security.  If so, Taiwan will lose 
everything.  One does not need to ask to know who will 
be blamed for this in the history." 
 
G) "Jointly Creating a New Cross-Strait Situation on 
the Free Interpretations of One China Basis" 
 
The pro-unification "United Daily News" [circulation: 
600,000] said in an editorial (5/9): 
 
". The fact that Lien Chan's visit to the mainland has 
attracted so much attention by the international media 
and has been blessed by [countries] including the 
United States explains precisely why the `free 
interpretations of one China' framework, which implies 
maintaining the status quo, is most likely to win 
stable international support in dealing with cross- 
Strait relations. 
 
". The `free interpretations of one China' [framework] 
itself is, of course, not the goal but a legal 
framework, which can facilitate reciprocal negotiations 
between two incompatible regimes.  The two Germanys 
agreed to disagree over the goal of unification before 
they unified.  The equilibrium point for the two sides 
across the Strait lies in `free' interpretations or 
`no' interpretation of one China.  Based on this, the 
two sides can build military confidence, seek mutual 
economic and trade benefits, and provide the greatest 
advantage Taiwan can enjoy in the mainland.  In this 
way, cross-Strait peace can be ensured.  This is in the 
common interest of Asia-Pacific nations.  Naturally, 
major countries including the United States, are happy 
to see this development. 
 
". We hope that Lien's visit to the mainland will bring 
an enlightening effect.  Following the same direction, 
from the unofficial Lien Chan, the semi-official James 
Soong, to the official Chen Shui-bian, we will be 
heading for a new, peaceful, win-win cross-Strait 
situation." 
 
PAAL