US embassy cable - 05KINGSTON1197

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KINGSTON 001197 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CAR (BENT) AND WHA/PDA 
STATE ALSO FOR INL/LP, EB/TPP, AND EB/IFD 
STATE ALSO FOR CA/OCS/ACS/WHA HALDANE 
STATE PASS OPIC FOR TABERNAKI 
CUSTOMS MIAMI FOR LOWEN AND MAHABIR 
SANTO DOMINGO FOR FCS, FAS, AND LEGATT 
STATE PASS USTR FOR A. GASH-DURKIN 
DOJ FOR OPDAT/ R LIPMAN 
TREASURY FOR L LAMONICA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, EFIN, ECON, EINV, JM, SNAR, KCOR, KCRM, ELAB 
SUBJECT: KINGSTON POL/ECON ROUNDUP: APR 22 - MAY 6, 2005 
 
REF: KINGSTON 01106 
 
1.  This week's topics: 
 
-- Police Under Attack from Kingston Gunmen 
-- Latest Crime Statistics 
-- Prime Minister Rolls Out the Goodies 
-- PNP Sources Report Concerns of a Party Divided 
-- Mexican President Fox Visits Jamaica 
-- Air Jamaica Settles Labor Dispute 
 
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Police Under Attack from Kingston Gunmen 
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2.  On the evening of May 3 in Kingston, two gunmen on a 
motorcycle shot and killed a Jamaica Constabulary Force (JCF) 
constable in a marked vehicle stopped at a traffic light in 
front of the Canadian High Commission.  Nearby JCF officers 
and a private security guard gave chase and killed the two 
gunmen, one of whom was subsequently confirmed to be the 
brother of Michael Christopher &Dudus8 Coke, a well known, 
JLP-linked West Kingston &area leader.8  In related attacks 
over the next 24 hours, three JCF officers and one private 
security guard were killed, including when gunmen opened fire 
on the Crossroads police station in the downtown area near 
the Embassy.  No suspects have been apprehended in any of the 
killings, which are thought to be retaliation for the fatal 
shooting of Tivoli Gardens gang leader Donovan Griffith, 
a.k.a. &Zion Train,8 by JCF officers in late April.  The 
police believe that the Tivoli Gardens &Shower Posse8 gang 
is avenging Griffith's death by retaliating against all 
security officials: police, military, and private security 
guards.  Political leaders have spoken out against the 
violence, and West Kingston Member of Parliament Bruce 
Golding has appealed to his constituents for peace.  (Septel). 
 
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Latest Crime Statistics 
----------------------- 
 
3.  The latest Crime Statistics Report (CSR) compiled by the 
JCF for the period covering January 1 through May 1 described 
a 33 percent increase in homicides compared with the same 
period in 2004.  Last year saw a record number of 1,469 
murders committed in Jamaica.  Twenty-four percent of the 
homicides were believed to be gang related.  A total of 2,748 
major crimes were reported this year, which actually 
represents a slight decrease since 2004.  Government 
officials have claimed that the decrease in the number of 
major crimes committed is a reflection of the success of the 
Ministry of National Security's Operation Kingfish. 
 
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Prime Minister Rolls Out the Goodies 
------------------------------------ 
 
4.  In his contribution to the 2005/2006 budget debate on 
April 26, Prime Minister P.J. Patterson announced nearly USD 
65 million in social spending to finance employment and 
housing projects, to be administered by Members of Parliament 
in their constituencies.  Parliamentarians who had requested 
an increase in their control over public funds have recently 
been attacked in the media, but Patterson staunchly defended 
the program, which he said would counter social decay, 
especially in inner-city communities.  Patterson's aggressive 
social spending, which represents a 25 percent increase over 
2004 funding available to MPs, may be what some Embassy 
sources are calling Patterson's &swan song8 ) a departing 
Prime Minister's generous social budget.  Several sources 
have offered that this is likely to be Patterson's last 
budget debate as Prime Minister, and that he will announce 
his retirement within the next twelve months (ref A). 
--------------------------------------------- - 
PNP Sources Report Concerns of a Party Divided 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
5. (SBU) On May 5, Portia Simpson Miller presented her 
strategy for &Jamaica ) the Way Forward8 at the 2005 
Political Leadership Forum, a series of presentations by 
prime ministerial candidates hosted by the Mona School of 
Business at the University of the West Indies.  Simpson 
Miller, the Minister of Local Government, Community 
Development, and Sports and front-runner candidate to succeed 
P.J. Patterson as People's National Party (PNP) leader and 
Prime Minister, addressed a standing-room only crowd that was 
boisterous in its support of the populist candidate.  The 
event was the final such forum, which has hosted 
presentations by Bruce Golding, leader of the Jamaica Labor 
Party (JLP), and five PNP candidates.  Embassy sources report 
growing concern within the PNP that the unprecedented number 
of leadership candidates is dividing the party.  They report 
that Patterson has suggested the idea of a primary vote among 
PNP delegates that would narrow the field to two or three 
candidates before the election takes place.  The concept 
reportedly has not been embraced by all candidates. 
 
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Mexican President Fox Visits Jamaica 
------------------------------------ 
 
6.  On May 4, Mexican President Vicente Fox visited Kingston, 
accompanied by a delegation of 25 government ministers, 
parliamentarians, and private sector representatives.  Media 
reports indicate that bilateral trade and investment between 
the GOM and GOJ were at the top of the agenda for the visit, 
and that Fox announced that his government would review the 
San Jose Accord, under which Jamaica purchases oil from 
Mexico and Venezuela, with a view to increasing Jamaica's 
access to available oil resources.  Other issues reportedly 
covered during the visit include recent developments at the 
OAS, both countries' support for the FTAA, and a commitment 
to work together to assist Haiti.  Post will seek an MFA 
read-out on the visit from a senior MFA official on May 11. 
 
--------------------------------- 
Air Jamaica Settles Labor Dispute 
--------------------------------- 
 
7.  Following protracted pay negotiations that threatened 
both the embattled airline's future and the memorandum of 
understanding (MOU) that governs the GOJ,s relationship with 
local trade unions, Air Jamaica reached an agreement with its 
pilots that satisfied the Jamaica Airline Pilots Association 
(JALPA) and its representative body, the Bustamante 
Industrial Trade Union (BITU).  Although the BITU has 
continued its threat to withdraw from the MOU, the pilots 
agreed to a 5.6 percent pay cut and a reduction in various 
allowances.  Minister of Labor and Social Security Horace 
Dalley chaired the marathon negotiating session, which lasted 
approximately 19 hours before it was signed by Air Jamaica's 
newly-installed management team (septel). 
 
TIGHE