US embassy cable - 02ABUJA1942

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001942 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/20/2007 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, NI 
SUBJECT: POSTPONING NIGERIA'S LOCAL GOVERNMENT ELECTIONS 
 
 
REF: A. ABUJA 1323 
     B. ABUJA 1033 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CDA ANDREWS.  REASON:  1.5(D) 
 
 
1.  (C) Summary: Nigeria's Local Government Council 
elections, slated for August 10, will almost certainly be 
postponed to October or later.  Different actors have 
different specific reasons and interests, but it all boils 
down to lack of preparation and lack of presidential interest 
in seeing the local elections move forward -- the same issues 
that led to the May polls being delayed.  If the further 
postponement helps players organize, prospects for a 
relatively smooth electoral cycle are enhanced.  But if delay 
encourages further confrontation and leaves key issues open, 
the future will look less rosy.  End Summary. 
 
 
2.  (U) Nigeria's Local Government Council elections, slated 
for August 10, following an initial postponement from May 18 
(ref A), are likely to be delayed again, this time until at 
least October and probably until December. 
 
 
3.  (C) We come to this conclusion following a dozen-plus 
conversations with political actors, ranging from the Vice 
President to state-level political operatives for several of 
the parties.  The expectation that the polls will be delayed 
is nearly unanimous, and most expect them not to hold before 
December.  Moreover, the newly-registered parties (septel) 
are threatening to go to court to demand a delay on the 
grounds that the current schedule, which would force them to 
field candidates across the Federation within the next three 
weeks,  is constitutionally deficient.  Seasoned observers 
tell us this argument could prevail but that the political 
consensus in favor of postponement is strong enough that the 
higher courts probably will never see any lawsuit. 
 
 
4.  (C) Following are some reasons further delay is likely: 
 
 
-- It advances President Obasanjo's objective of collapsing 
the election schedule into the shortest possible period of 
time (all other things being equal, a short cycle would favor 
his candidacy. In his ideal world, Obasanjo would hold the 
Presidential election first, followed closely by the other 
contests.  This would compel PDP state and local candidates 
to campaign almost as much for him as for themselves because 
their fate would be linked to his;  (C) 
 
 
-- It suits the purposes of National Assembly Members, most 
of whom do not get along well with their governors and who 
fear that early local government elections will strengthen 
the governors at their expense;  (SBU) 
 
 
-- Great confusion over the legal status of local governments 
created by some states after May 1999 (ref B) makes it almost 
impossible to hold credible polls in those states;  (U) 
 
 
-- Several states do not have laws authorizing them to carry 
out elections;  (U) 
 
 
-- Most states that do have laws probably have not set aside 
funds for the election and current revenue flows will not 
provide enough money to run the exercise and meet other state 
spending priorities;  (U) 
 
 
-- The majority of the states lack trained personnel and 
sufficient equipment and supplies;  (U) 
 
 
-- The new political parties will create public pressure for 
postponement, and their supporters could resort to violence 
if they feel the deck is stacked against them;  (U) and 
 
 
-- The Constitution and state laws aside, existing Federal 
electoral laws favor the stance of the new parties.  (U). 
 
 
5.  (C) The PDP is organizationally ready to hold primaries, 
according to Chairman Audu Ogbeh, but most party leaders are 
inclined to support a delay.  However, many state governors, 
hoping to use the new local governments as future campaign 
machines, would be unhappy with another delay and could well 
seek incumbency pacts in return for quietly assenting to 
another postponement.  We believe that some tacit incumbency 
pacts are already in place, particularly in the Southwest. 
 
 
6.  (C) In other words, a majority of the players are not 
ready to head to the polls.  This is the same reason polls 
were initially delayed from May 18 to August 10.  This time 
the actors have the opportunity to use the delay effectively. 
 Now that the new parties have been officially recognized 
they must solidify their support bases and prepare for the 
upcoming elections. The new parties have had a foretaste of 
possible victory by following procedures and going through 
proper channels.  If the process continues in this vein, then 
the chances for free and fair elections in the year ahead 
increase. 
 
 
7.  (C) However a delay in the elections gives those so 
inclined ample time to find new ways to manipulate or stymie 
the process.  Many of the actors are not convinced that 
"playing by the rules" is in their best interest, and cannot 
be expected to do so.  If the methods of these actors 
prevail, then the legitimacy of the election process is still 
very much in doubt. 
ANDREWS