US embassy cable - 02AMMAN3518

C O N F I D E N T I A L AMMAN 003518 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/2012 
TAGS: PREL, KPAL, IS, JO 
SUBJECT: UPON REFLECTION...JORDANIAN ESTABLISHMENT 
INCREASINGLY CRITICAL OF PRESIDENT'S MIDEAST SPEECH 
 
REF: A. AMMAN 03461 B. AMMAN 03495 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR EDWARD W. GNEHM FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C) Mainstream Jordanians, who were initially inclined to 
stress what they considered positives in the President's July 
24 speech, are voicing increased criticism after two days of 
reflection and questioning.  The practical effect of calling 
for Arafat's removal has been a particular point of 
contention.   Jordanians have also taken exception to 
America's "dictating the outcomes of democracy" and inviting 
Arab States in need of reform themselves to help democratize 
the Palestinians.  End Summary. 
 
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ON SECOND THOUGHT...LOTS OF RESERVATIONS 
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2. (C) Jordanians in the days after the speech have zeroed in 
on the call for Arafat's removal.  Many complain that the 
U.S. now has virtually ensured Arafat's re-election.   One 
East Bank Law professor, who welcomed some elements in the 
U.S. position, opined that any Palestinian who is elected 
before the end of the Israeli occupation will be thought of 
as "agent leadership" and will be assumed to be working for 
the Americans and Israelis.  East Banker and Speaker of the 
Upper House Zeid Rifai cautioned that Americans should not 
interpret the widespread Palestinian disaffection from 
Arafat's rule as a willingness to remove him, least of all at 
the urging of outsiders.  Rifai and other Establishment 
figures told the Ambassador that Palestinian anger towards 
the U.S. has not lessened as a result of the speech. 
 
3. (C) At the same time, Rifai also praised the official 
positive GOJ reaction, which left room for maneuvering.  The 
GOJ continues to press the positive elements of the speech. 
The Jordan Times--Jordan's English daily--ran a large 
headline the day after welcoming the President's speech and 
official editorials in the semi-official Al-Rai paper have 
applauded the speech as being consistent with Jordan's 
vision.  (See Refs for media reaction). 
 
4. (C) While many Palestinian Jordanians are still voicing 
appreciation for the call for a Palestinian state and an end 
to the occupation, most still criticized the "humiliating" 
and "patronizing" tone of the speech.  Many frankly view the 
speech as the fulfillment of Sharon's wishes (no doubt partly 
because of the triumphant tone in some Israeli reactions 
cited in the press).  Almost all Palestinians here favor 
reform, but view it as a matter for Palestinians themselves. 
 
 
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HELP FOR DEMOCRATIC REFORM FROM UNDEMOCRATIC STATES? 
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5. (C) Another message that is also under review here is the 
call for Arab States to help reform the PA.  Some contacts 
pointed out the irony of asking Saudi Arabia, which has never 
held national elections, to assist the PA in doing so.  One 
Palestinian contact, who supports Bush's call for reform, 
accused the PA of being a carbon copy of the Arab States and 
asked hypothetically how you could ask the PA to reform 
without demanding the same of other regional states. 
 
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COMMENT 
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6. (C) Most Jordanians still agree with the endgame as 
described in the President's June 24 speech and welcome his 
expression of it.  However, most are doubtful that the 
Palestinians can or will move ahead without Arafat.  More 
broadly, many believe that the U.S. has set the bar 
impossibly high by asking the Palestinians to create a new 
constitutional system under the guns of an "aggressive" 
occupying power intent (in their view) on extending the 
occupation indefinitely. 
Gnehm