US embassy cable - 05SOFIA836

UNCLAS SOFIA 000836 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, BU 
SUBJECT:  BULGARIA: AS GOVERNMENT TAKES TO THE CAMPAIGN 
TRAIL, DECISIONS LIKELY TO BE ON HOLD 
 
 
1.(SBU) SUMMARY:  The effective lame-duck status of the 
incumbent government will preclude its taking any major 
decisions or pursuing new initiatives from the end of May 
until the new cabinet takes office after the elections. 
Bulgaria's June 25 elections will be preceded by a month-long 
campaign, during which the incumbent parliament is not 
operational and cabinet ministers spend much of their time on 
the campaign trail.  Following the elections, the formation 
of a new government will likely take another month.  Thus, 
there will be at least a two-month period from the end of May 
until the end of July when we can expect very little 
substantive activity from the Bulgarian government.  Their 
ability and willingness to respond to our initiatives will be 
similarly limited.  END SUMMARY 
 
2. (U) The powers of the incumbent parliament expire on June 
17 when it formally dissolves.  However, the parliament will 
cease holding sessions May 25 when the election campaign 
officially begins.  In order to participate in the campaign, 
candidates who occupy a government post, including deputy 
ministers, must take leave.  That will be the case, for 
example, with Interior Ministry Chief Secretary Gen. Boiko 
Borissov, who will run for parliament on the ruling party 
ticket.  However, this requirement does not apply to the PM 
and his ministers, who continue nominally to perform their 
duties during the campaign and after the elections until the 
new cabinet is sworn in.  Although the government is formally 
operational, its decision-making ability slows to a crawl as 
most ministers spend the bulk of their time in their 
constituencies.  A total of 12 out of 20 cabinet ministers 
from the ruling party will run for parliament. 
 
3. (U) Within a month after the election, the President must 
convene the newly elected MPs for the first session of 
parliament.  After political consultations, the President 
then tasks the PM-designate of the largest parliamentary 
group to form a government.  There is no set deadline for the 
President to ask the first-place party to form a government, 
but Purvanov's advisors have assured us he will act quickly. 
 
4.  (U) In the event the parliament fails to approve the 
government line-up or the PM designate fails to propose a 
cabinet within seven days of being asked, the mandate goes to 
the second largest parliamentary group.  If the PM designate 
of the second largest group fails to form a government, or 
the proposed government is not approved by the Parliament, 
the President, at his discretion, tasks any of the other 
parliamentary groups to nominate a PM.  Only if the third 
parliamentary group's PM designate fails to form a 
government, or this government is not approved, does the 
President then appoint a caretaker PM and government, 
dissolves parliament and schedules new elections. 
 
5. (SBU) COMMENT: The incumbent government operates on a lame- 
duck basis until its successor is sworn in following the 
elections, a process that in the past has taken roughly a 
month.  However, there is no specific timeline in Bulgarian 
law, so a drawn out process is possible.  If the front- 
running Socialists are unable to secure an absolute majority 
in parliament they will need to forge a coalition, which 
could require lengthy negotiations.  In any case, there will 
be at least a two-month period from the end of May until the 
end of July when we can expect very little substantive 
activity from the Bulgarian government.  END COMMENT