US embassy cable - 05DARESSALAAM888

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAR ES SALAAM 000888 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E 
 
E.O. 12958: 5/5/15 
TAGS: PGOV, TZ 
SUBJECT: It's Kikwete:  the CCM Party Chooses a 
Presidential Candidate 
 
Classified by Pol-Econ Chief Judy Buelow for reason 
1.4(b) 
 
REF: A) Dar es Salaam 855 B) Dar es Salaam 832, C) Dar 
es Salaam 732, D) Dar es Salaam 538 and previous 
 
1. (C) Summary: By a lopsided vote, the ruling CCM 
party chose the Foreign Minister Jakaye Mrisho Kikwete 
as its candidate for President.  While only the 1,800 
delegates to the CCM party Congress actually voted in 
the final round, the general public appears 
enthusiastic about the party's choice, and about 
Kikwete himself.  Kikwete has no significant 
opposition and is virtually guaranteed to win the 
Presidency in the general elections of October, 2005. 
Kikwete's election breaks with the tradition of 
alternating the Presidency between mainlanders and 
Zanzibaris.  The Party nominated Vice President Shein, 
who hails from Zanzibar, to stay on as Kikwete's 
running mate.  Charismatic and articulate, Kikwete is 
thought to be particularly popular among young people, 
but administration is not his strong suit.   End 
Summary. 
 
. . . and Then There was One 
---------------------------- 
 
2. (U) The top echelons of the CCM party converged on 
the remote capital of Dodoma for a week of nominating 
sessions.  On May 2, the 36-member Central Committee 
convened to choose five of the eleven declared 
presidential candidates to proceed to the next round: 
Kikwete, Prime Minister Sumaye, Nyerere Foundation 
President Salim Salim, Planning and Privatization 
Minister Kigoda, and Transportation Minister 
Mwandosya.  On the following day, the 200 members of 
the National Executive Committee (NEC) selected three 
finalists, eliminating Sumaye and Kigoda.  Finally, on 
May 4, an Extraordinary Congress of the CCM, nearly 
1,800 members strong, elected Kikwete. 
 
3. (U) Most CCM-watchers viewed Kikwete as the front 
runner.  Some factions in the party were nonetheless 
set against a Kikwete presidency.  Kikwete's high 
"negatives" among the CCM leadership fueled 
speculation that the Party Congress would deadlock and 
eventually settle for a compromise candidate.  (This 
was the scenario in 1995, when Kikwete garnered the 
most votes in the first round, but lost the Presidency 
to "dark horse" Benjamin Mkapa.)  In the 2005 
nomination, Kikwete won easily on the first ballot. 
The NEC gave him more votes than anybody else when 
choosing the three finalists.  Kikwete's majority in 
the Party Congress was overwhelming:  he received 
1,072 votes to Salim's 476 and Mwandosya's 122. 
 
Electoral Strategizing and Ticket Balancing 
------------------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) The party's choice of Kikwete seems to be 
popular with the general public.  While many of the 
Embassy's government contacts favored Salim, and other 
also-rans, Kikwete swept a highly unscientific sample 
of Embassy FSN staff, Tanzanian friends, and Party 
Congress participants.  Some interlocutors said noisy 
cheers broke out among friends and neighbors who had 
gathered around their televisions to hear the 
nomination announcement.  CCM dominance on the 
mainland is so strong, that it is difficult to imagine 
a scenario in which the party's nominee could lose the 
general election on October 30.  Kikwete is virtually 
guaranteed to become Tanzania's fourth president since 
independence. 
 
5. (U) Kikwete's nomination broke with the informal 
tradition of alternating the Presidency between 
Mainland Christians and Zanzibari Muslims.  Although 
the tradition was never a constitutional requirement, 
Zanzibari party stalwarts may be put out about losing 
their "turn."  The party mollified Zanzibar somewhat 
by nominating Vice President Shein, who hails from 
Zanzibar's Pemba Island, to be Kikwete's running mate. 
Interestingly, the tradition of alternating Christian 
with Muslim remains intact:  Kikwete is a practicing 
Muslim, although he is considered moderate in his 
religious views. 
 
Kikwete's Biographical Notes 
---------------------------- 
 
6. (C) Kikwete represents the "young Turk" segment of 
the CCM party.  He is popular, politically adroit, 
charismatic and very ambitious.  In socially 
conservative Tanzania, however, Kikwete's relative 
youth - he is 55 - has worked against him.  So has his 
playboy reputation.  As the party has increasingly 
emphasized experience and education, Kikwete has a 
built an impressive resume.  Since 1995, Kikwete has 
been Foreign Minister and also the MP for Chalinze 
Constituency.  Previous government positions include 
Minister for Finance (1994-95), and Deputy Minister, 
then Minister for Energy, Minerals and Water (1990- 
94.)  For the twenty years before his government 
service, Kikwete served in various positions in the 
CCM party, and in its predecessor party, TANU. 
 
7. (U) Kikwete comes from the small town of Msogo, on 
the coast near Bagamoyo.  He has a BA in economics 
from the University of Dar es Salaam. 
 
8. (C) An able politician, Kikwete is a somewhat 
unenthusiastic administrator.  On Embassy row, his 
Foreign Ministry has a reputation for being 
understaffed and minimally responsive.  Kikwete 
himself is personable, and conveys the impression that 
he will at least consider the views of foreign 
diplomats.  Kikwete has signaled that he might discuss 
signing an Article 98 agreement with the US; the 
current President Benjamin Mkapa has firmly closed the 
door on any agreement for the remainder of his 
Presidency.   For years, observers of the Great Lakes 
conflicts have considered Kikwete to be virulently 
pro-Hutu.  Rumors that he was facilitating arms 
transfers to Burundian Hutu rebels persisted, but have 
never been substantiated.  Kikwete's marriage to a 
cousin of former Rwandan President Juvenal Habyarimana 
may have fueled these rumors, which are now fading as 
the Burundi conflict winds down. 
 
9. (u) Please see Embassy Dar es Salaam's SPRNet site 
for a complete update and background on the Tanzanian 
elections. 
 
STILLMAN