US embassy cable - 05ASUNCION605

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASUNCION 000605 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/BSC 
NSC FOR KIM BREIER 
TREASURY FOR OSIA MAUREEN WAFER 
TREASURY FOR OTA WARFIELD, VAN KOCH, MILLAR 
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD DAN JOHNSON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KCRM, PINR, PA 
SUBJECT: PARAGUAY: POLITICAL PACT MAY GIVE COLORADOS A 
TENUOUS SENATE MAJORITY 
 
 
Classified By: Political Chief James P. Merz, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C)  Summary.  The ruling Colorado Party has formed a 
make shift alliance with a handful of opposition Senators 
from the left side of the political spectrum in Paraguay. 
This alliance has already produced election of a dissident 
Senator from the opposition Liberal Party to a key committee. 
 Its viability at this juncture rests on a number of \"deals\" 
among the Colorados and the other Senators -- in particular 
on selection of candidates to several key positions.  By 
definition, the alliance is fragile given that it represents 
a curious marriage between, on the one hand, the ruling 
Colorado party, which historically has been anti-communist 
and pro-U.S., but also has a vested interest in preserving 
the status quo and, on the other, a group of Senators who 
historically, in principle, have sought to challenge the 
status quo but simultaneously have been anti-U.S. and 
leftist.  End Summary. 
 
The Emerging Alliance 
--------------------- 
 
2.  (U)  On 4/21, the Senate elected left-leaning Sen. 
Guggiari of the Liberal Party over Sen. Saguier, also of the 
Liberal Party, to fill a vacant seat on the Council of 
Magistrates.  (Note: The Council of Magistrates is an 
influential body of experts charged with responsibility for 
vetting candidates seeking Senate appointment as prosecutors 
or judges.)   Guggiari\'s election became possible when he and 
two other dissident Senators from the Liberal Party (the 
Liberal Party has a total of 12 Senators) formed an alliance 
with the 17 Senators from the Colorado Party, the 2 Senators 
from the socialist Country in Solidarity Party (PPS), and the 
one Senator from the chameleon National Encounter Party (PEN) 
to create a majority in the 45-member Senate. 
 
3.  (C)  The emerging alliance that produced Guggiari\'s 
election appears to rest on a number of \"deals,\" some of 
which involve Senate election of candidates to key positions. 
 Notwithstanding the fact that his party only has two 
Senators, Sen. Carlos Filizzola, the Leader of the leftist 
Country in Solidarity Party, has assumed a pivotal role in 
deals brokered by Colorado Party Senate leader, Juan Carlos 
(\"Cale\") Galaverna.  Filizzola, for example, has apparently 
agreed to ally PPS with the Colorados in exchange for their 
commitment to support Filizzola\'s candidacy as the next 
President of the Senate when elections are held in June. 
Filizzola has also gained the support of the Colorado Party, 
and the other parties that have entered this new alliance, to 
adopt legislation in favor of the controversial expropriation 
of a significant tract of land in the Chaco. 
 
Filizzola\'s Vote on Rienzi Under Review 
--------------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C)  Filizzola came under fire from within PPS for 
signaling readiness to support the extension of Supreme Court 
Justice Wildo Rienzi, a tarnished Colorado Party stalwart 
whose term expired in April.  According to Filizzola\'s cousin 
Rafael Filizzola, who is a Deputy in the Congress\' House of 
Deputies, Carlos has since retracted PPS support for Rienzi. 
However, this matter is far from resolved, as Filizzola stood 
with Galaverna in the Senate on a 4/28 vote to place a 
proposal on Rienzi\'s tenure on the 5/5 Senate agenda. 
Similarly, while Filizzola has reportedly indicated he would 
not accept the renewal of Attorney General Oscar Latorre\'s 
term, which expires in August, he has not denied he is 
beholden to support some other Colorado-backed candidate. 
 
Liberal Party on its Heels 
-------------------------- 
 
5.  (C)  According to its ideology, the Liberal Party is 
committed to a government and economy unfettered by 
regulations and restrictions.  Sens. Guggiari, Vera Bejarano, 
and Laino, the three Senators who recently broke away from 
their party to form a pact with the Colorados, do not 
subscribe to these liberal principles, favoring instead a 
larger role for the State in addressing the needs of the 
population.  Informally, these three Senators, members of the 
Liberal Party by virtue of long familial association, had 
already set themselves apart from the rest of the party. 
Their decision, however, to form an alliance with the 
Colorado Party, the Liberal Party\'s longest historical 
opponent, represents a significant blow to the Liberal 
Party\'s image as the leading opposition party.  On 4/26, Sen. 
Armando Espinola, the President of the Liberal Party\'s bench 
in the Senate told PolCoun that he supported sanctioning the 
three dissident Senators and kicking them out of the party 
altogether.  Apparently, however, other leading Liberal Party 
representatives reject taking these extreme measures out of 
fear it would only undercut the Liberal Party\'s political 
base. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
6.  (C)  The staying power of this alliance and its prospects 
for producing a significant impact on Congressional decisions 
remain unclear.  This pact is very much driven by the 
personal ambitions of two men, Colorado leader Galaverna and 
PPS leader Filizzola.  Galaverna seeks a majority that will 
give the Colorados ascendancy in deciding on key jobs and 
preserving the Colorado Party\'s vested interest in the status 
quo, including by definition the Party\'s control of the 
country\'s political and economic agenda. 
 
7.  (C)  Filizzola, on the other hand, is almost 
single-mindedly focused on becoming Senate President which he 
envisions as a springboard to developing a profile on the 
national political scene that would enable him to make a run 
at the Presidency in 2008.  A leftist, opposed to the 
Colorado Party\'s historic grip on power and the corruption it 
fosters, Filizzola takes ideological stances on issues 
ranging from the expropriation of land for landless peasants 
to opposition to joint U.S.-Paraguay military exercises. 
Given they have been in power for over fifty years of 
continuous rule, the Colorados do not consider Filizzola a 
legitimate threat to their political base.  Further, they 
themselves are not beyond accommodating PPS with a populist 
stance on certain issues provided it reinforces the patronage 
system the Colorados use to stay in power.  Nevertheless, 
given the overarching tension between the agendas of these 
two parties in particular, the strength of this new alliance 
will be tested on a regular basis, resting in large measure 
on its ability to deliver candidates each wants to several 
key positions. 
KEANE