US embassy cable - 05DARESSALAAM855

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DAR ES SALAAM 000855 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, TZ 
SUBJECT: The Top Five CCM Candidates Selected: the 
Race is On 
 
REF: A) Dar es Salaam 832, B) Dar es Salaam 732, C) 
Dar es Salaam 538 
 
1. (U) Summary:  In a marathon session that lasted 
late into the night of May 2, the CCM party?s 
Central Committee selected five of the eleven 
declared presidential candidates to proceed to the 
next round of internal party balloting.  The five 
who made the first cut -? Foreign Minister Kikwete, 
Prime Minister Sumaye, Nyerere Foundation President 
Salim Salim, Planning and Privatization Minister 
Kigoda and Transportation Minister Mwandosya ?- will 
proceed to the May 3 session of the party?s National 
Executive Committee, which will eliminate two more 
candidates. The Party Congress will then convene to 
select the CCM?s nominee for the Union Presidency ? 
and almost certainly determine the identity of 
Tanzania?s next president.  The decision is proving 
difficult, and the final announcement has already 
been postponed to the morning of May 5.  End 
Summary. 
 
2. (U) The Central Committee was supposed to 
announce its five candidates on the afternoon of May 
2, but the session went far into the night, while 
political observers placed bets on the outcome.  A 
consensus had emerged among political observers that 
the four front runners were Kikwete, Salim Salim, 
Sumaye and CCM Party Vice Chairman John Malecela. 
Most handicappers thought that these four would 
advance to the next round, joined by one of the more 
plausible candidates from the second tier.  Since 
each of the ?big Four? have both strong supporters 
and passionate detractors within the upper echelons 
of the CCM, it is not unlikely that a relatively 
unknown compromise candidate could become the 
party?s nominee. 
 
3. (SBU) The Central Committee?s list of five 
candidates has only a few surprises.  The list 
includes two second-tier candidates, Minister of 
Planning and Privatization Abdallah Kigoda and 
Minister of Communications and Transportation Mark 
Mwandosya.  The venerable John Malecela, a putative 
front runner, failed to make the first cut.  The 
Central Committee?s choices may indicate that the 
party intends to move beyond its history of 
Socialist experimentation:  at seventy years of age, 
Malecela represents the oldest of the Old Guard. 
Mwandosya and Kigoda are relatively young 
technocrats.  Kigoda?s recent experience as the 
Minister in charge of privatizing state enterprises 
bodes well for a continuation of President Mkapa?s 
policies of free-market economic reform. 
 
4. (U) Once the sole political party, the CCM still 
predominates on the national level.  Barring 
unforeseen and dramatic developments, the CCM?s 
nominee will elected President of the United 
Republic in the general elections of October 30. 
CCM candidates for the National Assembly won?t be 
announced until June, but it is a safe bet that the 
party will retain its overwhelming parliamentary 
majority. 
 
5. (SBU) Only on semi-autonomous Zanzibar, with less 
than three percent of the national population, does 
the CCM face a credible challenge from an opposition 
party.  Before facing the opposition Civic United 
Front (CUF), however, incumbent Zanzibari President 
Amani Abeid Karume had to overcome a surprisingly 
strong challenge from within the CCM.  The CCM 
challenger, Dr. Mohammed Gharib Bilal, was 
reportedly persuaded to step down for the good of 
the party.  (In a rare instance involving a named 
source, the CCM newspaper ?Uhuru? reported on May 3 
that Home Affairs Minister Omar Mapuri had provided 
this information). The On May 5, the CCM will 
announce its nominee for the Zanzibar Presidency, 
but the CCM leadership will be voting for only one 
candidate. 
 
6. (SBU) Comment: All eyes are on Dodoma this week, 
as the CCM party leadership whittles the CCM 
hopefuls down to one nominee.  Reportedly, the 
remote capital is full to bursting with the CCM 
faithful:  Dodoma?s few hotel rooms were all booked 
weeks ago, and crowds of people are reportedly 
sleeping out in the open.  The next big event will 
be the National Executive Committee?s announcement 
of the final three.  The gamblers among the 
diplomatic corps have put their money on Kikwete, 
Salim Salim, and one of ?second tier? candidates, 
with Kigoda most often mentioned.  The consensus 
view is that Prime Minister Sumaye is too badly 
damaged by allegations of corruption and by his own 
lackluster candidacy to make the next cut.  As to 
the final nominee, few observers are willing to 
hazard a guess.  It?s easy to envision a deadlock 
between supporters of Kikwete and Salim, opening the 
way to a little-known compromise candidate.  A 
surprise outcome just might not come as a big 
surprise.  End comment 
 
 
STILLMAN