US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI2003

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 002003 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - 
ROBERT PALLADINO 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW, Cross Strait Politics 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS 
 
1. Summary: As Taiwan dailies continued to cover KMT 
Chairman Lien Chan's China trip May 3, the focus has 
shifted to President Chen Shui-bian's speech Monday to 
the Parliament of the Marshall Islands with regard to 
cross-Strait confidence-building measures.  The pro- 
unification "United Daily News" ran a banner headline 
on its front page that read "Bian: both sides of the 
Strait should establish confidence-building measures." 
Other major Chinese-language dailies also carried the 
same news story in their inside pages.  The centrist, 
pro-status quo "China Times" reported on page two that 
"Both sides of the Taiwan Strait have for the first 
time shared the same view with regard to a military 
mutual trust mechanism."  The pro-unification "United 
Daily News" also printed a banner headline on page 
three that read: "Lien: confidence-building measures 
are auxiliary to a peace agreement." 
 
2.  In terms of editorials and commentaries, a "Liberty 
Times" editorial strongly criticized President Chen 
with regard to his changed attitude toward Lien's visit 
to China.  A "Taiwan Daily" editorial blasted Lien's 
trip as helping China to succeed with its `united front 
strategy' toward Taiwan.  A "United Daily News" 
editorial, on the other hand, commented on Lien's 
preliminary success in his visit to China, noting that 
Lien has brought a win-win idea into the plan of a 
cross-Strait common market.  A "China Times" news 
analysis noted that the opposition party leaders' 
visits to China has forced Chen to re-focus his 
attention to China and thus regained his leadership in 
the cross-Strait issues.  A "United Daily News" 
commentary discussed the change in China's policy 
toward Taiwan and urged the Taiwan government to 
respond to it with care.  "China Times" Washington 
correspondent Norman Fu discussed the U.S. role in 
cross-Strait relations, saying the United States has 
not lost control over cross-Strait issues because China 
still relies on the United States to solve the Taiwan 
issue.   End summary. 
 
A) "What Exactly Does President Chen Shui-bian Have in 
Mind?" 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 
800,000] editorialized (5/3): 
 
". President Chen Shui-bian gave his blessings to the 
visits conducted by the opposition leaders to China. 
Chen regarded positively KMT Chairman Lien Chan's talks 
and behaviors in China and asked PFP Chairman James 
Soong to be his envoy to China.  Hence, it is evident 
that Chen's `China fever' is as serious as that of 
Lien's and Soong's.  The fact that Lien and Soong 
concurred with the `1992 consensus' in China is already 
[powerful] enough to enable the Beijing authorities to 
display fully its united front strategy and to divide 
the Taiwan people.  If Chen also dreams about a meeting 
with China's President Hu Jintao, Hu will be more than 
happy to act as an arbitrator between Taiwan's ruling 
party and opposition parties.  As a result, Taiwan will 
lose in the game [toward its struggle with China] for 
sure.  High-ranking DPP officials recently warned 
Taiwan people not to show [positive] emotions toward 
China, adding that what's happening to Taiwan now and 
here is the most important thing.  The officials also 
said Taiwan should not shake hands with China in haste, 
and it is more important for the ruling party to work 
on domestic affairs in collaboration with the 
opposition parties.  Based on such comments, we believe 
the government and the DPP should have consistent and 
not divided opinions." 
 
B) "Lien Chan's Talks and Behaviors in China Have Made 
Taiwan Businessmen Assume That Both Sides of the Taiwan 
Strait Belong to One Country and Have Enabled China's 
United Front Strategy That Seeks to `Force the 
Government through Businesses' to Succeed" 
 
The pro-independence "Taiwan Daily" editorialized 
(5/3): 
 
".  [I]n fact, either a cross-Strait peace treaty or 
the establishment of a military mutual trust mechanism 
will have to be built on the foundation that both sides 
of the Taiwan Strait are standing on an equal footing. 
How can there be a peace treaty between the two sides 
of the Taiwan Strait if China still insists that [cross- 
Strait talks] be conducted under the `one China' 
principle, or if it still requests that Taiwan accept 
the `1992 consensus,' which is in nature the `one 
China' principle?  How can China establish a military 
mutual trust mechanism with Taiwan if it does not 
remove the 700 missiles aimed at the island, guarantee 
that it will not use force against Taiwan, or abolish 
the Anti-Secession Law?  During his China trip, Lien 
Chan failed to talk about all these issues that are 
directly related to Taiwan's interest.  Instead, he 
still believes that it is of major significance that he 
has obtained a `positive response' from the Chinese 
authorities.  We, however, do not see any significance 
[in China's response]." 
 
C) "The Win-Win Concept and a Common Market across the 
Taiwan Strait" 
 
The pro-unification "United Daily News" [circulation: 
600,000] commented in an editorial (5/3): 
 
"KMT Chairman Lien Chan will return to Taiwan today, 
and the long-term effects of his `journey of peace' 
still remain to be seen.  But overall, Lien has, to a 
certain extent, sown the seeds of peace and a win-win 
idea [for both sides of the Taiwan Strait]. . 
 
"When the Taiwan authorities still have doubts about 
`opening up' and `exchanges' [across the Taiwan 
Strait], the idea of a `common market' is a 
comparatively more possible way to cooperate [with 
China]. . 
 
"The precondition for any type of economic integration 
is to seek a win-win situation.  It is more and more 
evident that Taiwan needs to integrate with China in 
terms of economic resources, and the integration as a 
result will benefit Taiwan.  Otherwise, how come Chi 
Mei Group Founder Hsu Wen-lung would write such an open 
letter before China's passage of the Anti-Secession 
Law? 
 
"When several countries in Asia are proposing to form 
the `ASEAN plus 3,' `East Asia Community,' `East Asia 
Free Trade Area,' and all kinds of bilateral 
agreements, Taiwan will be forced to enter a dilemma of 
being marginalized if it does not come to some kind of 
understanding or agreement with China with regard to 
Taiwan's space in the international community. ." 
 
D) "Bian Wins back His Bargaining Chips [with Regard to 
Cross-Strait Issues] by Refocusing His Attention to 
China" 
 
Journalist Hsiao Hsu-chen noted in the "My Views" 
column of the centrist, pro-status quo "China Times" 
[circulation: 600,000] (5/3): 
 
"Despite the People First Party's attempt to clarify 
for its chairman, James Soong's role as the first 
public `envoy' across the Taiwan Strait is basically 
settled following President Chen Shui-bian's 
announcement Sunday.  Chen's decision to take the first 
formal step in breaking the ice between the two sides 
of the Taiwan Strait is evident to show that he has 
gradually deviated from the tune about China set by 
former President Lee Teng-hui and is willing to re- 
evaluate the new Chinese regime headed by Hu Jintao or 
at least to try some new approaches [in dealing with 
China.] . 
 
"Judged from this perspective, Lien's trip to China is 
both a crisis and a turning point for President Chen. 
Chen has come to a point where he has to face the cross- 
Strait issues directly, and this also offered him an 
opportunity to take a close look at the new approaches 
adopted by Hu's regime toward Taiwan. . 
 
"It is a top priority for Taiwan to re-evaluate China 
and to set a strategic tune on China and on the cross- 
Strait relations in the new era.  Over the past few 
years, the Taipei government has been busy securing its 
power and running around for its campaigns.  Some of 
these efforts may be helpful in building the Taiwan 
consciousness, but in the meantime, because of its 
negligence of the evolvement of China, the government 
has also missed the chances to take advantage of some 
of strategic situations.  [KMT Chairman] Lien Chan's 
trip to China, followed by that of Soong's, have 
finally forced the government to face the issue 
directly. .  The re-positioning of cross-Strait 
relations and Chen's [willingness] to step out of the 
frame set up by former President Lee and to try to 
start a new round of talks with the Chinese leaders . 
will create a new opportunity for the happiness and 
peace of the Taiwan people." 
 
E) "Change in Beijing's Strategic Thinking toward 
Taiwan" 
 
Journalist Sun Yang-ming observed in the "United Notes" 
column of the pro-unification "United Daily News" 
[circulation: 600,000] (5/3): 
 
"The results of the meeting between [KMT Chairman] Lien 
Chan and [Chinese President] Hu Jintao revealed that 
Beijing has changed its strategic thinking toward 
Taiwan.  The Chen Shui-bian administration will be put 
in a passive position if it fails to deal with the 
change appropriately. 
 
"During the period of [former Chinese President] Jiang 
Zemin, Beijing's policy guideline toward Taiwan was 
that `both sides could talk about anything under the 
one China principle.'  Such a dogma-like approach has 
put Beijing in a passive and reactive position when 
dealing with the Taiwan issue because Taipei distrusts 
Beijing and Taiwan people has seen no `concrete 
goodwill gestures' from Beijing.  As a result, former 
President Lee Teng-hui and the Chen Shui-bian 
administration could easily control Taiwan people's 
attitude toward China. 
 
"Fundamental change happened to Beijing's attitude 
since [Chinese President] Hu Jintao came to power.  He 
no longer talked about empty principles but directly 
appeals to the Taiwanese people with substantive 
interests in order to obtain strategic preemptiveness. 
 
"The so-called strategic preemptiveness means that 
Beijing will observe what Taiwan people want, re- 
package it in a way that is acceptable for Beijing and 
throw it back to the Chen Shui-bian administration and 
Taipei to worry about what to do.  Take Taiwan's bid to 
join the WHO as an example.  It is said that Beijing is 
very likely to allow Taiwan to join the WHO or attend 
the WHA in the name of `Taipei China.' . 
 
"The KMT's landing on China has enabled Beijing to tell 
Taiwan people its requests directly, making the Chen 
Shui-bian unable to interpret Beijing's policy the way 
it likes.  Such a channel of communication will become 
systemized as the KMT and Chinese Communist Party 
started talking.  The Chen Shui-bian administration, as 
a result, will have to reconsider or adjust its cross- 
Strait strategy." 
 
F) "Is the United States' Cross-Strait Policy out of 
Control?" 
 
Washington correspondent Norman Fu said in the 
"Washington Outlook" column of the centrist, pro-status 
quo "China Times" [circulation: 600,000] (5/3): 
 
". In general, the United States still continued to 
stand in a critical leading position with regard to 
cross-Strait relations.  Washington's leadership does 
not change because of the direct talks between Taiwan's 
opposition leaders and Beijing because it will be 
impossible for Beijing to resolve the Taiwan issue 
without Washington's consent or [tacit consent].  That 
is why Beijing has been trying to befriend Washington 
over the past few years, hoping that the United States 
will help it stop Taiwan from moving toward 
independence.  As for the roles of the KMT and the PFP 
in the cross-Strait relations, they are just part of 
Beijing's strategies and they are not strong enough to 
diminish or change Washington's significant position. 
The United States of course hopes that Beijing could 
talk to the Chen Shui-bian administration directly, but 
it still depends on whether Beijing has confidence in 
Chen and the future prospects of the DPP government." 
 
PAAL