US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI3308

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 003308 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/01/2015 
TAGS: PREL, EAID, PK, IZ, NP, BG, CH, IN, AF, UK, INDO-PAK, India-China, India-Bangladesh 
SUBJECT: INDIA UPBEAT WITH SHEINWALD ON CHINA AND PAKISTAN; 
WORRIED ABOUT BANGLADESH; J&K CEASE-FIRE UNLIKELY 
 
 
Classified By: Polcouns Geoff Pyatt, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: Aside from nuclear issues (septel) UK NSA 
Sir Nigel Sheinwald's April 25-26 visit to New Delhi stuck to 
familiar ground, with the PM, NSA Narayanan, and Foreign 
Secretary Shyam Saran providing an encouraging backdrop for 
 
SIPDIS 
the September 7-8 India-EU and India-UK Summits.  According 
to the UK readout, PM Singh stressed his sincerity about 
making peace with Pakistan, admitted that infiltration had 
been reduced, but cautioned that the real test would come 
when the mountain passes open in May.  Narayanan said a 
cease-fire in J&K was "unlikely given previous experiences." 
Saran reiterated GOI willingness to assist Iraq draft its 
constitution and to provide training in public 
administration.  On Nepal, Saran was in a wait-and-see mode, 
while Narayanan said the Maoists had not been weakened at 
all.  Narayanan professed to be more concerned about 
Bangladesh, commenting that a trilateral US/UK/India approach 
was even more desirable there because of the possibility of 
"Talebanization."  The PM was pleased about India's progress 
with Beijing, especially the parameters for resolving their 
border dispute.  The UK PM,s September visit to New Delhi 
will come on the heels of an unprecedented number of visits 
by almost every UK Cabinet Minister.  The GOI noted 
continuing interest in transit rights though Pakistan to 
Afghanistan.  See septel for Sheinwald's discussions on 
nuclear energy and proliferation.  End Summary. 
 
Upbeat on Pakistan, but Cease-fire &Unlikely" 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Characterizing Sheinwald's discussions on Pakistan as 
&upbeat,8 UK Polcouns Rob Macaire 
(protect) said the GOI was pleased that Musharraf had 
acknowledged the public's sentiment for peace in both 
countries.  Sheinwald's interlocutors explained their 
"people-centered8 approach to the Kashmir problem, 
maintaining that middle class Indian tourists were causing 
"dramatic changes in the Valley."  The PM stressed India,s 
sincerity about making peace with Pakistan, admitted that 
infiltration had been reduced, but cautioned that the real 
test would come when the mountain passes open in May.  New 
Delhi promised troop reductions if infiltration decreased. 
Sheinwald told the PM that HMG continues to press Pakistan to 
stop its support for terrorism, and that London believes 
Islamabad has begun to deliver.  NSA Narayanan observed that 
the ISI had taken no steps regarding Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT), 
while terrorist groups were using new infiltration routes via 
Nepal, Bangladesh and the sea.  Narayanan asserted that human 
rights violations had decreased in Kashmir, but when 
Sheinwald asked about prospects for a cease-fire in J&K, the 
Indian NSA replied that it was "unlikely, given previous 
experiences." 
 
Interest in Assistance to Iraq, But No New Commitments 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
3.  (C) FS Saran reiterated GOI willingness to assist Iraq 
draft its constitution and to provide training in public 
administration.  Sheinwald welcomed any help New Delhi could 
offer the UN and expressed the hope that India would become 
more involved, especially in the South and North where the 
situation was more secure.  Sheinwald also emphasized the 
importance of sticking to the timetable for installing a 
permanent government as outlined in the Transitional 
Administrative Law (TAL).  Saran responded that UNSYG Kofi 
Annan's comments during his concurrent visit to India had 
implied that the TAL timetable had already been superseded. 
UK PolCouns added that during a meeting with the High 
Commission earlier that week, GOI West Asia Envoy Chinmaya 
Garekhan had offered nothing new about India's position in 
Iraq. 
 
UK Keen on Trilateral Consultations on Nepal 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) Sheinwald appreciated the manner in which India, the 
UK, and the United States were cooperating on Nepal, but 
suggested to the GOI that further trilateral consultations 
would be desirable.  Saran was in a wait-and-see mode as to 
whether the King would allow the State of Emergency to expire 
on April 30, as scheduled.  The FS did not foresee any 
significant change in the security situation and predicted 
that even a strengthened RNA could do no more than hold the 
line.  NSA Narayanan commented that the Maoists had not been 
weakened at all.  Sheinwald reportedly stressed that the King 
must reverse his actions of February 1, or it would be 
difficult for HMG to change its policy against military aid. 
 
Transit to Afghanistan 
---------------------- 
 
5.  (C) Sheinwald underlined to Saran the UK hope that India 
will attend the Wilton Park conference on Afghanistan, 
encouraged India's presence at the June 22 donors conference, 
and asked whether India might do more on counternarcotics. 
Saran asked the Brits to help India get transit rights 
through Pakistan to Afghanistan, at least for 
assistance-related items.  He also indicated that India had 
raised this issue bilaterally with Musharraf.  Saran was 
predictably skeptical on Taliban reintegration, warning that 
Pakistan was pushing for this in order to rebuild influence. 
 
Narayanan More Troubled by Bangladesh Than Nepal 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
6.  (C) Narayanan reportedly told Sheinwald that a trilateral 
approach with the United States, UK and India was even more 
desirable regarding Bangladesh, where "Talebanization is a 
real possibility" and radical Islam could take root and 
become an "epicenter of terrorism."  Almost all Indian 
insurgent groups had links to Bangladesh, the Indian NSA 
asserted.  New Delhi believes it has shown considerable 
restraint in the Tripura region after several recent 
incidents involving border forces, but had yet to see a 
commensurate response from Bangladesh.  Sheinwald responded 
that HMG was monitoring the situation closely and welcomed 
specific information on terrorism, regardless of the channel. 
 
Indians Pleased About China 
--------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) Offering an upbeat account of New Delhi's 
relationship with China, Saran was pleased that China had 
formally recognized Sikkim as part of India during Premier 
Wen's recent visit.  The GOI believes it scored a victory 
when the PRC agreed not to disturb "settled populations," a 
reference to the "Guiding Principles" the two sides signed 
governing their approach to resolving the disputed border. 
The PM was also pleased with India's progress with Beijing, 
especially the parameters for resolving their border 
question.  Asked for his assessment of U.S. policy, Saran 
remarked that the U.S. did not appear to be pursuing a 
containment strategy towards China, but was concerned about 
China not playing by the rules.  The PM evinced interest in 
China's friction with Japan. 
 
September Visit 
--------------- 
 
8.  (C) Macaire noted that the British PM,s anticipated 
visit to New Delhi on September 7-8 will come on the heels of 
an unprecedented number of trips to India by almost every UK 
Cabinet Minister.  He hoped that India could be convinced 
through the UK Presidency to view the EU as "more than just a 
trading partner."  In addition to leading the EU Summit, the 
UK Prime Minister's visit will include a full day of 
bilateral business in New Delhi. 
 
9.  (U) Minimize considered. 
BLAKE